Aintree Grand National

[redman41]

Who do you fancy this Year ?
Big Fella Thanks 9/1
Mon Mome 12/1
Black Apalachi 14/1
These are the current Favourites but it's anybody's Race really
Comply or Die 2008 Winner is carrying 11st 5lb this Year
Might go for State of Play @ 20/1

[pericat]

I will stick a pin on the paper red - is it this Saturday ?

[redman41]

Aintree meeting starts tomorrow with the Big Race on Sat.
Final Declarations for the 40 starters will be made tomorrow so get your Pin ready pericat ! lol

[Justincider]

Quite fancy Chief Dan George. Carrying 10st 2 10 years old good chance

[redman41]

Yes Justincider, he is around 25/1 at present so it might be worthwhile an E/W on him.
It's not too often Horses carrying well over 11st win the National unless they are called Red Rum !

[OrcadianOil]

People get carried away with the Grand National but sadly there is no value whatsoever nowadays. For example, Big Fella Thanks, which is already miles too short at 9-1, will start at a much shorter price - I'd guarantee that. At least half the field will start at 20-1 or shorter, which is ludicrous for many reasons.

I gave up betting years ago, and I'm still astounded at the amount of people who will throw their money away and blindly accept the odds offered to them instead of walking away. 9-1 should be the odds offered for a horse to simply complete the course safely, let alone to actually win the thing.

My only advice for those who must bet on it is this:
1. Do not bet on any horse carrying over 11st.
2. Unless your fancy is between 9 & 12 years old, don't bet on it.
3. If the going is either very soft or very firm, check that your fancy has previous form on that particular type of going.
4. Do not back a horse with an amateur rider on board, or a female jockey.
5. If you take a chance and gamble before the day(ie you'll lose your money if your horse doesn't run), you're virtually guaranteed to get better odds now than on the actual day of the race when most money is bet and the odds shrink.
6. Do not back a horse simply because of the jockey, ie the current champion jockey Tony McCoy, has never won the race.

[redman41]

Good points there Orcadian and what you say makes a lot of sense. I will place my bet tomorrow once final declarations have been made. When Sat comes all the odds will plummet.

[Justincider]

OrcadianOil, I think you'll find most people bet on the National for a bit of fun. Any gambler knows the futility of being on this race. But it gives a few minutes of fun and a chance of a few quid at the end.

[daftgrandad]

Agree with your choice Justincider.
Had a bet on him at Cheltenham @ 33-1,which he won.
Would suggest only bet e/w on any horse,in this race,so much can happen,loose horses,refusals etc.

[Justincider]

I'm not a great E/W my philosophy is, if you're going to lose £20 you're going to lose it. I bet to win.

[redman41]

As daftgrandad says, anything can happen in a Race such as this. All the Fav Horses can be brought down by a loose Horse causing havoc.
I tend to Bet to win on my first choice and do an E/W on another.

[OrcadianOil]

Thanks Justincider,
Given that my first dabble at the GN was 1961, perhaps you go back further?, I fully realise why people keep bookies in the style to which they have become accustomed with their "few minutes of fun".

[sambro]

i fancy creosote at 7/1.its good over fences

[Sandy-Wroe]

A family member had a £1 ew Foinavon back in 1967. The odds were 100-1. Nobody in our family has backed a winner since in the National.