It is a bet - in a soft market (bad economy plus political incidents etc), it can be seriously worth calling the hotels close in and see what deal they could lay on for you. I have had some super deals that undercut the tripasdvisers and their like.....but then you may wish to lock in now, especially if it is a good deal and it is a special anniversary. If you do book now, do send them an e-mail closer in to say that you are coming and you can always request them for a room upgrade etc (if you do not ask you do not get) and giveing them a hint of what/when you are celebrating is useful....