Opinion Poll nonsense

[Gromit]

// Labour has opened its largest lead since the general election as it reaches double figures ahead of the Conservatives.
A poll has found that if there was a general election tomorrow 32 per cent of people would vote for the Tories while 43 per cent would choose Labour.
In a humiliating revelation for the Lib Dems, which had nearly a quarter of the vote at the last election, the UK Independence Party has pipped the party to third place with a score of 9 per cent.

http://www.dailymail....IP.html#ixzz1sIWCgzaZ

Not good news for the Coaltion approaching the Local Elections. Is this just to be expected mid term, or have the Government lost the plot?

[rojash]

I doubt if the results would be the same in a real election. Don't forget that in the run up to an election the Mail (and a large majority of the other papers) would immediately drop all articles and news items that might reflect badly on the Tories, and start hunting out anything and everything that could be given a spin unfavourable to labour

[anotheoldgit]

As you say this is expected mid term.

There is of course the fact that many are not very amused at all the cuts that the coalition have had to make, due to the previous government's overspending.

[FredPuli43]

Not surprising. The budget was so written that it was bound to annoy. When we have a chancellor cutting the top rate of income tax back to 40 per cent, thereby making a lot of high earners £40,000 a year in tax saving, we have a chancellor who has not exactly got the national mood, whatever the economics behind that decision. And now we have this strange idea that giving to charities which are not, in fact, charitable but simply a means of getting the money back in expenses etc of the donor, is a serious tax dodge. This idea is not being backed by any figures as to the frequency or rarity of this devious scheme. And anyway, all registered charities in the UK have to show charitable purpose and have their accounts checked for the Charity Commissioners (if that's their current name!), to show that their own expenses are appropriate and their charitable purpose is being served.
Couple that with the usual 'mid-term' unpopularity of a government and it's surprising that the poll lead isn't greater, though that may be a reflection on the Leader of the Opposition, who does not appear to be very effective.

[LazyGun]

I certainly do not think Labour should assume that this means the electorate have come around to their way of thinking, especially since I do not think they have made a coherent case of their own as yet. I would think it largely represents a mid-term response to a government that is showing every sign of pressing every single "PR disaster" button it can find, coupled with a continuing poor economic outlook.

Were I a LibDem though, I think this opinion poll would prove to be extremely worrying. Whilst Nick Clegg and others within the coalition government machine might be happy that LibDems may be able to present themselves as having the opportunity to influence and initiate policy, the grass roots activists and local councillors will be extremely worried at what this poll says about the general public opinion of the LibDems.

[youngmafbog]

A little from column A and a little from Column B.

Mid term this is not unusual especially given the coalition have had to make so very bleak descions. I doubt the populous would vote for Milliband and Balls, maybe if Ed's brother was in they may stand a chance. Secondly of course do you really think Labour want it back just yet? I doubt it, much easier to sit on the sidleines sniping (with no real policies) until the economy turns and then come back in and spend it all yet again as labut always do.

Having said all of that I personally thing Cameron and Boy George have lost the plot.

[jake-the-peg]

Mid terms do tend to show this but 11 percent is quite a big lead.

A lot of Labours lead I believe will have come from lost Liberal supporters

Exactly how much the Tories loose to UKIP is the big decider, with the Tories losing to UKIP who don't have a great deal of chance and Liberal voters
turning to Labour or not voting this lead will take some erroding.

Remember too that the Tories cannot now call a snap election at a time that suits them, the date is fixed.

Of course there is always the situation where Labour don't win an outright majority and we end up with a Lib-Lab coalition.

I suspect that would cause a furore

[pdq1]

The voters intentions are too fickle. It was only last week Geo Galloway trumped Labour by a huge margin in Bradford, The only consistency seems to be the Liberal vote which is very low. They are now a drain on the Tories and maybe a split is soon on the cards.

[factor-fiction]

Just a minor correction to FredPuli's post: the change to the top rate of tax announced in the budget is falling to 45% not 40%.

[New Judge]

It is quite true that The Prime Minister cannot now call a snap election. But the Fixed Term Parliaments Act of 2011 does not provide for an insoluble fixed term parliament. What it does do is to remove from the current Prime Minister the option of calling an early General Election should the perceived mood of the electorate show that to be desirable. However, the House of Commons still has the option of calling for a vote of “No Confidence” in the current government and if this is won then a General Election must follow.

What this means to the Coalition is that should the Tories and the LibDems fall out, the House (presumably the LibDems and Labour) could call a No Confidence vote and should they win, a General Election would follow.

It is quite clear that the 2011 Act was introduced as an early “sop” to the LibDems by their Conservative bedfellows. It would not at all have been in the LibDems’ interests to provide support to a party which would call an election as soon as they thought they could command an overall majority, thus depriving them of the spare keys to No 10. It is an ideal illustration of the lengths to which the Tories have gone to command power when they should have gone again to the country to ask the electorate who they want to govern them. Instead they concocted seedy alliances with a party with which they have no common ground.

[Kathyan]

Less than 2000 people were surveyed. Hardly a true representation.

[NOX]

It's a poll Kathy, they don't ask every single person in the country : /
It's pretty par for the course for whatever Govt is in power to be unpopular mid term, but thankfully this lot are really hashing things up and hopefully it'll be another quarter of a century before they resume power after the next election (just enough time for a whole generation not to remember them from last time).

[starone]

I think I would be more worried about the UKIP. This party seems to be growing and becoming stronger.In fact if they put one up in my district I might be tempted to vote for them myself.