Film, Media & TV0 min ago
Are we alone ?
Answers
The Drake equation needs a bit of a change IMHO
It goes straight from the probability of life to the probability of intelligent life.
There is a general assumption that life is very common based on the fact that it arose very rapidly on Earth and that seems pretty reasonable to me.
The assumption also commonly made is that once you have life...
It goes straight from the probability of life to the probability of intelligent life.
The assumption also commonly made is that once you have life...
13:30 Thu 23rd Aug 2012
The Drake equation needs a bit of a change IMHO
It goes straight from the probability of life to the probability of intelligent life.
There is a general assumption that life is very common based on the fact that it arose very rapidly on Earth and that seems pretty reasonable to me.
The assumption also commonly made is that once you have life evolutionary forces will drive to intelligent life in quite a large number of cases.
I think there is a rather big factor missing in these which is the probability that complex life arises.
Life evolved on Earth about as soon as the heavy bombardment of meteorites and comets stopped but for 3 of the 4 billion years life was simple - single celled goo.
On Earth Complex life looks like at least two different strands where one invaded the other and created a complex cell.
That sort of event may have actually have been very improbable - possibly millions to one against.
That throws a major spanner in the works of the Drake equation. It's a major reason that finding any proof of an extra terrestrial life form alive or fossilised would be so important - if it's muticellular it would imply that complex life is common.
We could just be in a Universe inhabited by goo
It goes straight from the probability of life to the probability of intelligent life.
There is a general assumption that life is very common based on the fact that it arose very rapidly on Earth and that seems pretty reasonable to me.
The assumption also commonly made is that once you have life evolutionary forces will drive to intelligent life in quite a large number of cases.
I think there is a rather big factor missing in these which is the probability that complex life arises.
Life evolved on Earth about as soon as the heavy bombardment of meteorites and comets stopped but for 3 of the 4 billion years life was simple - single celled goo.
On Earth Complex life looks like at least two different strands where one invaded the other and created a complex cell.
That sort of event may have actually have been very improbable - possibly millions to one against.
That throws a major spanner in the works of the Drake equation. It's a major reason that finding any proof of an extra terrestrial life form alive or fossilised would be so important - if it's muticellular it would imply that complex life is common.
We could just be in a Universe inhabited by goo
Oh, dear, pdq. That's such an old argument, and just putting it forward in the modern language of genetic sequencing doesn't make it any more logical or convincing than it was 300 or 400 years ago. But hey, this is SCIENCE, not RELIGION & SPIRITUALITY, so let's not clutter it with stuff that belongs in a different group.
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