Why is nobody talking about the world oil supply situation

[qapmoc]

This is not really a question more of an attempt at a wake up call - I am getting really worried by the total lack of mention of the current condition of the worlds oil supply and the fact that within 3-5 years many industrial countries will be struggling with ultra high oil prices and shortfall in supply which will affect the whole world. Don't forget that your food is made with oil.
PLEASE google PEAK OIL and read some, don't dismiss it all as hyped up rubbish, why do you think BP says that it now stands for Beyond Petroleum!!!

[joko]

we can read and talk about it but what good will that do?

Is there something we, as individuals can realistically do?

If there is some way we could change it i'd be all for it?

i've had a quick look at a few of the many sites but no-one made any real suggestions of what i, personally, could do to help.

excuse me if i seem ignorant of these details.

Any suggestions?

[Clanad]

As in almost all inquiries, education is the key. I realize there are a great many people that view the "peak oil" crisis as looming. However, it's interesting to note that two names continue to surface over a fairly long period of time, prdicting the demise of oil as an energy source. Those are Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere. Both of these gentlemen have made predictions that continue to receive a lot of credence. The problem is that they have predicted the same outcome beginning nearly 30 years ago, but with the same results... the predictions continue to be pushed into the future. Additionally, having some friends and relatives in the oil 'bidness' here in the U.S. brings my attention to the fact that no one knows exactly where oil comes from. We've all assumed zillions of dinosaurs died and contributed their 'bodily fluids' to the depsosition of oil. That is highly in question. In fact the Russians, who have amazing oil reserves in Siberiam base their opinions (along with some knowlegeable westerners) that oil is continuing to be "manufactured" deep within the earth.
At any rate, here is one site that offers an alternate view. It's up to each individual to educate themselves and determine what is true, rather than becoming Chicken Littles... in my opinion...

http://www.williambowles.info/ini/ini-0292.html

Additionally, here in the western U.S., known coal reserves total nearly 500 years at current consumption. This doesn't include vast areas of oil shale deposits that, thus far have been uneconomical to exploit. Remember, the Germans ran almost their entire war machine in WW II from coal derived synthetic fuels. That technology is still available, only greatly improved...

I certainly respect alternate opinions, however...

[WaldoMcFroog]

"We've all assumed zillions of dinosaurs died and contributed their 'bodily fluids' to the depsosition of oil. That is highly in question."

I don't wish to start a debate over your right to believe or not, but may I ask whether your opinion of how oil is formed is influcenced by your beliefs in Intelligent Design? Is it fair to assume you favour the abiogenic theory as mentioned on

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum#Origin

?

[Clanad]

Waldo, I can only state that geologists and scientists today cannot tell you what oil is, other than the classic "it's a hydrocarbon". I have an education centering on Geology, my oldest son is a petroleum engineer, I have several friends who are highly articulate and respected in their field of oil exploration and production. The one thing they all agree on is that they cannot say for certain what oil is or how it originated. Nothing to do with my views on ID... and I neither favor nor disfavor your reference. I only suggest that people inquire intelligently and draw their own conclusions. Would you not agree?

[WaldoMcFroog]

I agree entirely. I wasn't seeking to make any point, just to understand whether that influenced your thinking. The arguement presented on Wikipedia is very interesting indeed.

[Gef]

Oil was not made from dinosaurs. It came from tiny sea creatures called diatoms millions of years ago. The conditions on Earth then were totally different from today. When its gone its gone.

[qapmoc]

Hi Joko, the point is yes ,you alone can't ''do'' anything about it, the problem is that the western population's as a whole obviously either think the same or doesn't know or care what the probable situation is, only if enough people become aware and make waves about it will the people at the top start to do something. The problem is that according to many analysts it may already be too late to stop the descent of many of societies financial structures.

If you read the stuff available on this subject and then discount half as alarmist there are still a lot of people around who are very worried about the situation, part of the problem is that real figures on the worlds oil reserves situation are very difficult to put together in a way that means anything - for instance, one of the top guys in Irans oil industry stated recently ''We have added 17 billion barrels to our proven reserves (oil in the ground) from two additional fields now combined as one, the recoverable oil should total 3 billion barrels''

So they put 17billion barrels on the reserve figures but think that 3 billion can be actually used, OK - but the US and others use the reserves figures to calculate the worlds future supply situation!!!

Suadi Arabia is the worlds largest single producer and they say they have no problem with production, but the reserves and production figures are official state secrets and if they are OK why are they unable to produce more oil even though they said they would.

And you see stuff like this all through the oil industry.

[qapmoc]

Hi Clanad, I don't see that it makes any difference where you believe the oil comes from, even if you assume that it is produced inside the earth the fact is that most of the US oil fields are depleted and have never recovered after being pumped out. only one oil field has ever had the oil level return after being used and that one has very unusual geological underlying structures which actually convince most scientists that the oil field is a near surface reservoir sitting over a deeper reservoir and as the top oil was used the bottom oil moved up under pressure and refilled the top one.

[Clanad]

The points made by Gef and qapmoc, while deserving serious consideration, fail to take into account many current findings. Firstly, for Gef, you are ceratinly welcome to your opinion, but I could fill my limit of 2,000 characters in this thread with alternate positions by emminently qualified professionals in the field. A quote from Live Science says A so-called fossil fuel, petroleum is believed by most scientists to be the transformed remains of long dead organisms. The majority of petroleum is thought to come from the fossils of plants and tiny marine organisms. Larger animals might contribute to the mix as well.

"Even some of the dinosaurs may have gotten involved in some of this," says William Thomas, a geologists at the University of Kentucky. "[Although] I think it would be quite rare and a very small and insignificant contribution." However another scientist with equally credible credentials says "The geologic period when petroleum deposits can form depends on a balance between sufficient sources of organic material ( trees, plants etc with waxy 'hydrocarbon coatings') and the occurrence of the proper geologic subsidence and trapping processes." So... take your pick...

Contd.

[Clanad]

Contd. (Zipped right through 2,000 characters)

I would only say qapmoc, that secondary and tertitiary oil field recovery efforts have been successful at recovering only, at maximum, 20 to 40 percent of estimated content. This is done with water injection. We are now seeing an increase to around 60 percent recovery with the injection of CO2. Encouragingly, this increase is in it's first stages of experimentation. The CO2 is readily available from natural sources. The effort, based in a Canadian oil field is a multi-national effort and the statistics appear to be valid. Lastly, the development of the abiotic theory must be given serious consideration. Reserves in much of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan, the coast of Vietnam, and virtually all the oil in Russia were found either at depths or in source rock that are incompatible with traditional techniques. Recently, in Switzerland, Thomas Gold led an experimental drill for oil straight into pure granite, where he did indeed find enough to quickly produce one million barrels for testing. (Source: National Oilfield Research Lab).

No one has discussed the potential in the tremendous coal deposits worldwide that I mentioned earlier.
I simply maintain that, although the cheap, easy to find oil fileds of the past are history, technology has always proven equal to the task of provision... in my opinion...

[Gef]

Thanks for agreeing with me Clanad. By the way oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons. To get back to qapmoc's original question, yes the oil will run out although there is still some debate as to the timescale. When its gone the world will be a different place. Although some "oil-based" products can be made from coal the technology is not in place at the moment and remember that coal is also a finite resource. Apart from powering our industries fossil fuels are also the source of all of our man-made fibres and textiles. Eventually we will go back to having only wool, cotton, rubber and silk.

Now I'm going to open another bottle of wine - it's the weekend!

[rogerthomas]

Nobody's talking about it because they're all too busy concentrating on 5hit like Celebrity Big Brother.