Crime Is Down; Year Right

[youngmafbog]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/postman-steven-tuck-shot-head-2252051

Why arent the parents hauled up in Court?

[Sqad]

Well, I am a little confused here......I was under the impression that abolishing corporal punishment to children would present us with a less violent society.

it may well be that this child's parents were violent to the child, but there is nothing in the report to suggest this.

I have yet to be convinced that the abolition of corporal punishment to children has had any beneficial effects whatsoever.

[jim360]

Getting rid of corporal punishment was a good thing (as Sellars and Yeatman would have it...) but I think the trouble is that no-one has figured out how to replace it yet.

[FredPuli43]

Because the parents aren't and weren't parties to the assault.

If you believe that one assault of this type demonstrates that crime is not down, what are your grounds for this assertion of proof ?

[ummmm]

My cousin (in law) was shot with a pellet gun in the 70's. It wasn't viewed as a crime, it was viewed as boys being stupid and reckless...

(he still has the pellet wedged next to his eye)

[Gromit]

Crime is not going down. People have finally learned that it is pointless reporting it.
// Greater Manchester Police does not investigate 60% of crimes

More than half of all crimes reported to Greater Manchester Police are not investigated, the chief constable has admitted.

Sir Peter Fahy said officers are only able to concentrate on about 40% of reported crime. //

The postman story. How was an eight year old in possession of a gun? Surely the parents can be prosecuted for allowing that?

[youngmafbog]

Sir Peter Fahy actually says there is no forensic CCTV or witnesses so chances of find or if you do prosecuting are so slim as to not be viable. This has probably always been the case. Annoying, but difficult to argue with his case.

Yes Gromit, that is my question, why are the parents not in the Station?

[Sqad]

\\\\If you believe that one assault of this type demonstrates that crime is not down, what are your grounds for this assertion of proof ?\\\

Fred.....no! no! No!........I am not saying that ....not at all, but for me it is just another notch on my anecdotal gun.

10 years ago, i was a true believer in statistical analysis and anecdotal evidence to me was just a joke......a few snide remarks....you understand. However over the last decade i have had my doubts concerning statistical evidence severely dented. Who compiled the evidence how were they collated, have the goalposts been moved, has evidence unfriendly to my report been "shredded?"

Now Fred i am not suggesting that i am kicking statistical analysis into touch...no! no!....but i am taking anecdotal evidence more seriously.

Less violent crime since the abolition of corporal punishment? I don't think so and i cannot foresee any statistics that may make me change my mind.

[jim360]

All of those risks and flaws of statistics are well-known and there are methods to deal with or account for them that are employed in any good study. The problem is that these uncertainties are often not mentioned, or highlighted, in most reports, at least not to the public. The flaws in statistical evidence include risks of selection biases, or massaging of the information to present a particular point of view, or people just downright lying to the survey in large enough numbers to skew the result -- in short, the risks are entirely down to human errors. Are these not just as prevalent, if not more so, in anecdotal evidence where people are less likely to try to account for such errors?

[Sqad]

Jim

\\\or people just downright lying to the survey in large enough numbers to skew the result -- in short, the risks are entirely down to human errors\\\

Exactly.

\\Are these not just as prevalent, if not more so, in anecdotal evidence where people are less likely to try to account for such errors?\\\

Yes.

I still feel the same though..............

[sp1814]

youngmafbog

Crime figures are falling. This case doesn't prove otherwise.

Not sure what the parents could be changed with, but I think the CPS should look for something. If an eight year old is running around shooting people with an air rifle, then something is seriously going wrong with it's upbringing.

Perhaps the first step the postal union could take is not delivering to this particular address. All post for them could be held at an inconvenient depot, and they would have to collect.

That would be a start.

[Sqad]

sp

\\\\Crime figures are falling.\\\

Is that the same as saying "crime is falling?"

I have my doubts.....but..........

[FredPuli43]

Sqad, I was addressing the OP and his heading, not anything you said.

[ludwig]

// 8 yr old with an air rifle makes national news. //

We used to shoot our postman in the head all the time when we were kids.

[Sqad]

Ludwig.....LOL.

[Quizmonster]

As regards anecdotal evidence, I once told my GP about a 'cure' I'd found for a medical problem of mine - which none of her medication or advice had alleviated - and suggested it might be worthwhile her telling other patients about it. She replied, "That's just anecdotal."
No denying that, of course, but it did work and could not conceivably have harmed anyone who tried it.

[emmie]

trigger, surely you jest, the man could have been blinded.