Record Low Crime - Do You Belueve It?

[Gromit]

// Overall crime fell by 10% in England and Wales in the year to September 2013, official figures show. //

That is the lowest figure since the survey of police data started in 1981. We are living in a golden age of record low crime numbers.

Three cheers for Teresa May!!!

[jno]

or perhaps a golden age of statistical manipulation, it's hard to say.

It really is hard to say, such is the history of skewing and spinning crime figures.

[New Judge]

No I do not believe it.

Just a few days ago it was reported that there is considerable doubt over the validity of reported crime figures. And even if it was true three cheers ( or even one cheer) are not warranted for the Home Secretary. I cannot recall too much she has done which would have had so significant effect as to reduce the number of crimes committed.

[smurfchops]

And hoodies might fly

[jim360]

This survey was based on "not-police data" as I understand it, but based on the question "Have you been a victim of any of the following crimes in the last year?". The BBC article I looked at suggested both that the figures was of order twice as high as official police data, but even assuming that they are untrustworthy, statistics that have been around for over 30 years probably have the same amount of untrustworthiness throughout, so a 10% drop is likely to be significant.

[Canary42]

The question "Have you been a victim of the following crime" is a bit daft - the dead can't respond so murder/manslaughter is out of the running.

[jim360]

True -- but this particular survey was only looking at some types of crime, and it's enough to see that they have -- or have not -- fallen.

[DrFilth]

looks like they have had the airbrushes out again don't forget this report gromit from the manc riots

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/revealed-how-the-manchester-riots-were-872367

[Sqad]

It is not that I do not believe it! but I take ALL statistics now with a " pinch of salt" particularly those that eminate from the NHS.

I would rather " dip my toe" into the water and make up my own mind.

Sorry, not very scientific I know........but that is how I feel.

[jake-the-peg]

Is that how you approached clinical risk assessment sqad?

[Zacs-Master]

For those with more time on their hands than me..............
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/crime-statistics-methodology/index.html
Maybe someone will be able to give a meaningful answer once they've read and understood the attached. Then again......

[Sqad]

Never had "clinical assessment " Jake"..........if I developed a good reputation! patient's returned and I made money, if they were not satisfied, they never returned or recommended anybody to me and I didn't make a living.

A simple concept.......that was in Private Practise........in the NHS, it didn't really matter, as my salary was guaranteed for life and was not performance related.

[atalanta]

If you go round lowering figures, you can't be surprised if the government comes to the conclusion that you don't need so many staff. For instance, if the NHS suddenly announced that illness had halved, you would expect the numbers of doctors, nurses and managers to halve, too.
You might consider the expression "shooting yourself in the foot"

[Sqad]

atalanta

\\\ For instance, if the NHS suddenly announced that illness had halved, you would expect the numbers of doctors, nurses and managers to halve, too. \\

You might expect that, but it would n't happen......we are talking State Controlled Medicine with strong union basis.

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25831906

[youngmafbog]

I'm sure the figures are correct

I would doubt the survey's validity though.

[ludwig]

There's been a massive two pronged attack by police on reducing the figures of reported crime.

1 - Encourage people not to bother reporting it because nothing will happen. e.g 'There's no chance of finding your stolen bike. You might as well forget it mate'.

2 - Redefine the meaning of the work 'crime', so that it includes less things than it used to.

[jeffa]

Does this include all of the "petty" crime which the police just don't have the resources to investigate?

A while back I was out with some friends and one of our party had her handbag stolen. Even though it was caught on CCTV, the officer who took the report and gave the crime number etc admitted that nothing further would happen since they didn't have the manpower.

[ludwig]

// the officer who took the report and gave the crime number etc admitted that nothing further would happen since they didn't have the manpower. //

Yep, see point 1) above.

[Mojo-Jo-Jo]

The police are ace in West and North Yorkshire. Just sayin'.