Wythenshaw By-Election

[mikey4444]

As expected, a comfortable win for Labour, in a Labour seat, so no great surprise there. But the swing to UKIP was +14.51%, while the swing against the Tories was -11.03%. Also Labour gained 11.2%, in a very low turnout, which they will be pleased about.

So it would seem that the predicted theft of Tory votes by UKIP is now coming true. Only a by-election of course, but an interesting result nevertheless.

[whiskeryron]

// The real losers were the Tories and the Lib Dems, especially the latter. I'm afraid that unless Clegg does something dramatic, like pulling out of the coalition, he risks being sent right back to the political doldrums of the 60's and 70's when they had single figure seats in Parliament. Tough decision for him I agree, and not one that I would like to have to make.//

Cleggie wants to get his finger out a bit sharpish & disassociate his party from
the Tories, break up the coalition with a group that the Lib Dems should never have associated with in the first place & get a pact going with the Labour party. This is the only way he will save the Lib Dems from going completely down the sink hole & the only way to stop the country from the attack of the UKIPS.

WR.

[anotheoldgit]

General election forecast, Tories create a coalition with UKIP.

Wow I can hear the trembles from here.

[DrFilth]

general election forecast ,
captain chaplington-smythe upsets the house with his dress code

[mikey4444]

ymg...then we appear to agree then ! Which is nice, as it doesn't often happen on here.

But I am not really sure where dave can go from here. His cozy relationship with the Lib Dems seems to be fast coming apart. The share of the vote for the Lib Dems has collapsed anyway, so its unlikely that he will be able to rely of their support in May 2015, as they won't have significant seats to be worth anything.

The Tories have always had a problem with Europe. Its torn the party apart in the past, especially under Major. Some of his party seem to be having an almost open revolt over Europe. So its UKIP which he has to fight, not just Labour.

Like you, I just can't see UKIP winning any but a small hand-full of seats in May 2015...even Farage knows he isn't going to win. But it could, and probably will be, a decisive issue on whether dave will still be in Number Ten in June 2015.

[mikey4444]

aog...just seen your post ! Yes, now that really would be a vote winner for dave. But I can't see it happen, although I could be wrong. Interesting few months ahead !

[brionon]

mikey4444 Right , Mate !

[Gromit]

// General election forecast, Tories create a coalition with UKIP. //

UKiP are unlikely to get any seats, but they will come second in many constituencies by taking votes from the Tories. Splitting the Tory vote will, in many places, let in Labour or the LibDems.

[youngmafbog]

But will it be just the Tory vote Gromit. What most seem to miss is it is Middle England that matters. They will vote Labour as much as they will vote Tory so unless they see Milliband (or Cameron) coming up with the goods neither will get their vote.

My guess is that core Tories will bloody Camerons nose in by-elections but wont risk it at the though of Balls in charge again. Maybe if he was not there things might be different, but he is.

[mikey4444]

I agree with gromit...UKIP are far more likely to take votes away from Labour than they are the Tories. Both Ed and dave need to pay attention to UKIP but its dave that isn't getting much sleep at nights.

[ToraToraTora]

you hope gromit!