Updated Electoral Calculus 2015 Prediction

[mikey4444]

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Labour majority down from 66 this time last month, to 58 now. Interesting to see that they predict a rise in the UKIP vote from 3.17% in 2010, to 13.58% in May 2015, but still no seats for Mr Farage.

But, as someone will no doubt point out, its over a year to go and anything can happen. Well, not anything, like UKIP winning the Election of course, but dave could still be in with a chance of a deal with the Libs again.

[Kromovaracun]

"Interesting to see that they predict a rise in the UKIP vote from 3.17% in 2010"

I think it's plausible. Something very similar happened to the Alliance in 1983 - 25% of the vote, and a piddly 23 seats. Labour won 27% and got 209.

UKIP have a more extreme version of the same problem - they don't have a core of constituencies following them, but they do have significant numbers of followers spread out across multiple constituencies.

[Gromit]

UKiP should do well in the European elections, easily beating the LibDems. They might even beat the Conservatives. As that is a propportion representation election they could end up with more MEPs than the Conservatives.

That is will not translate into MPs because we have first past the post for Westminster elections, but they could seriously disrupt the Conservatives vote.

The LibDems will probably have less than 20 seats. If the election result is that close in 2015 we will probably need to re-run it like we did in 2015.

[mikey4444]

My point K is that even with a popular vote of 13.58%, UKIP still won't have any seats. All that work and nothing to show for it. Contrast this with the expected popular vote for the LibDems of 9.59%, down from 26.58%, but they should still get 21 seats, enough to be kingmakers again.

Its to be expected of course, with our current voting system but pretty galling for Farage none the less.

If you click on the "can the Tories win" you will find the final sentence reads

"Overall this analysis shows that it is certainly possible for the Conservatives to recover enough ground to get another hung parliament, but it is still very difficult for them to win an absolute majority in the House of Commons. They would need some events like a good economic recovery and/or the collapse of UKIP to achieve the swing of 7% which they need for a majority"

So, no real good news for anybody other than Ed it would seem.

[New Judge]

Let's hope then that should a hung Parliament be the result of the next election, then whoever has the most seats has the courage to do what Mr Cameron should have done four years ago - formed a minority government and went to the country again after a few defeats in the Commons.

[emmie]

exactly, i would rather they lost than square up with the Lib Dems,

[mikey4444]

Its entirely immaterial what UKIP achieves in the forthcoming Euro Elections Gromit. It doesn't matter a bu**er !

They will probably gain a few more seats in Brussels than they have now, but how will that profit them ? They don't think that Britain should be in the EU but they admit that to get Britain out will take a long time and the battle will have to be fought at Westminster, not in bl00dy Belgium. So they will have seats in Brussels, which will benefit them nothing.

Westminster is where the power lies, and Farage knows it. Its panning out to look as if UKIP will be the "fart in a thunderstorm" in May 2015. If Farage can't get a substantial amount of seats, then he might as well not bother and all his efforts will have been a complete waste of time and money.

[ToraToraTora]

careful mikey, that gloatometer is rising again!

[mikey4444]

NJ...I am tending to agree with you, as I am not a fan of coalition Governments. But if dave had told Betty in the summer of 2010 that he could try and fight on alone, he would have been going back up the Mall a few weeks or months later, asking for Parliament to be dissolved. Who could predict that he would win a clear majority in the 2010 Election Mark 2 ?

There is an article in todays Guardian, by Chris Huhne of all people, that predicts that coalitions are here to stay, mainly because of the fixed term Parliaments that we now have. I find myself agreeing with him somewhat,
strange though that may seem.

But the main point of my post today was to show the real situation behind UKIP. All that I can see that they will achieve in May 2015 is a more certain outright majority for Labour.

[Gromit]

Meant to say a re-run like in 1974, not 2015.

If UKiP get 2nd in the Euro Elections it will add to their credibility. At the general election it may well persaud people that a vote for UKiP is not a wasted vote. As a protest vote they may do well, but likely on get maybe one or two seats.

[New Judge]

Mr Huhne would say that wouldn't he, Mikey. That's the only way the LibDems will ever get the spare keys to No 10. The outrageous Fixed Term Parliament Act would never have been introduced had the LibDems not been in government and it should be repealed forthwith. Yes, you’re quite right, nobody could have predicted the outcome of a second election in 2010. However, if you had asked the electorate to vote again having heard that the alternative was to be the ridiculous mish-mash we have been suffering for the last four years I’m sure a clear majority - one way or the other - would have ensued.

[mikey4444]

NJ...you may be right, and who knows, we might have a hung Parliament in 2015, and maybe even 2 elections ! I remember 1974 very well, as the 2nd election in October was the first I was able to vote in. The Liberals under Thorpe were kingmakers then, twice ! Perhaps coalitions are what we will have to get used to in Britain. Most of Europe seem to manage with them, so perhaps we should learn to as well.

[Gromit]

Mikey

The Liberals were not the Kingmaker in October 1974.
Labour had a majority of 3. The Lib Lab Pact came into being in 1977 after that majority ended at a bye election. It was Steel, not Thorpe leading the Liberals in the pact.

[Canary42]

It's all mumbo-jumbo as we've seen time and time again.

[mikey4444]

It was a very long time ago Gromit, so permit me a lapse of memory !

But things were so much simpler back then...only 2 Parties that really mattered, with a Liberal Party whose fire had gone out years before. And none of the Loony Tunes either !