Who Will Have The Most Effect On Each Of These Parties, The Scottish Nationalists On Labour Or Ukip On The Tories?

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2799549/red-ed-blow-scots-turn-backs-labour-tories-ahead-polls-time-1950s.html

[mikey4444]

Complicated question AOG, but I will give it a go !

Lets get the easy bit over first. In Scotland, UKIP remains a political non-entity and its not going to challenge any other Party next May.

According to electoralcalculus, south of the Border, the Tories stand to lose more votes, although not necessarily many seats to UKIP, than Labour. But with our first-past-the-post system, UKIP may not end up with many seats at all. They may come third or even second in a lot of constituencies, but coming first is the only thing that matters in General Election.

But it would seem, from the same source, that the SNP is likely to gain about the same number seats from Labour, as it will from the LibDems...about 10 from each. But lets not over-egg the SNP pudding...the YES vote only managed about 38% of the available votes that could be cast, so a largish minority. Not insignificant but hardly a king-maker position either.

Overall, my best estimate is that UKIP will just make a Labour victory more certain than not, as Labour is still consistently ahead of the Tories in the Polls ::::

http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/

[ludwig]

// Overall, my best estimate is that UKIP will just make a Labour victory more certain than not //

Maybe you should stop whinging about them then Mikey. They could be the best hope Labour's got for an outright victory.

I wouldn't like to predict anything about the next election, except that it's going to be the most unpredictable one we've had for a long time.

[mikey4444]

Ludwig...I whinge about UKIP because they are awful, but I hope that they reduce the quantity of Tory seats next May.....Amicus meus, inimicus inimici mei ! ( I think...its a long time since I did Latin )

By the way. you are right about next May being unpredictable but mine was just an estimation, that I will tinker with as circumstances change closer to the event. But it interesting that the Tories still can't seem to get ahead in the Polls and stay ahead, no matter how they try.

[ludwig]

//.....Amicus meus, inimicus inimici mei //

That's what I'm saying, they should be your friend, but you're forever sl488ging them off!

[mikey4444]

I am always slagging them off because they deserve it Ludwig. But if they can help unseat some Tory MPs...more power to them.