Help With Probability

[ukanonymous]

Help with probability

Say you are playing a gambling game which is 0.5 To play

The prizes are as follows:
52% lose
1% chance to win 0.52
1% chance to win 0.7
1% chance to win 0.72
45% chance to win 1.0


After 1000 games How much will you have spent and how much are you likely to win and how do you predict/ calculate how much you will win?

[ukanonymous]

I was responding to:
//But I agree with O_G that the win values still look odd.
I can't see why you want to mess around with a 2p win or why there is a need for separate prizes of both 20p and 22p. Unless the aim is to confuse the customer. //

[fiction-factory]

Of course anything to do with bit coins is a huge gamble in itself

[ukanonymous]

//Of course anything to do with bit coins is a huge gamble in itself//

Why do you say that they have only fallen 20 pounds in value this week. For Bitcoin thats pretty good. ;-)

[ukanonymous]

The house edge or vigorish is defined as the casino profit expressed as the percentage of the player's original bet. (In games such as Blackjack or Spanish 21, the final bet may be several times the original bet, if the player double and splits.)


Erm help me understand this with this game please?

[fiction-factory]

In that case I think it's as I calculated

[ukanonymous]

In American Roulette, there are two "zeroes" (0, 00) and 36 non-zero numbers (18 red and 18 black). If a player bets 1 unit on red, his chance of winning 1 unit is therefore 18/38 and his chance of losing 1 unit is 20/38. The player's expected value is EV = (18/38 x 1) + (20/38 x -1) = 18/38 - 20/38 = -2/38 = -5.26%. Therefore, the house edge is 5.26%. After 10 spins, betting 1 unit per spin, the average house profit will be 10 x 1 x 5.26% = 0.53 units. Of course, the casino may not win exactly 53 cents of a unit; this figure is the average casino profit from each player if it had millions of players each betting for 10 spins at 1 unit per spin. European and French roulette wheels have only one "zero" and therefore the house advantage (ignoring the en prison rule) is equal to 1/37 = 2.7%.[1]

This has lost me really how do I quantify this?

[ukanonymous]

Is that right what you did then?

[fiction-factory]

^except I mistyped it as 4.66% instead of 4.68%

[ukanonymous]

OK sure FF thanks very much for your help :)
Now I will try put all this in Code.

[fiction-factory]

See if jim360 confirms it- I've only got a third of an eye on this (one third on the washing and one third on the UKIP manifesto launch)

[fiction-factory]

^or Old-Geezer

[ukanonymous]

OK yes will wait confirmation then LOL

[jim360]

I've had my head filled with a completely different problem the last couple of hours. What am I meant to be confirming?

[ukanonymous]

The house edge :)

[woofgang]

The answer of course is while we (well some of us, not me obviously) can do maths in our sleep about these things, its only probability. Even though we talk about the laws of chance, in fact chance has no laws and you might lose all your float before you get a bean back.

[jim360]

"...in fact chance has no laws..."

Not really true, because chance is about telling you what to expect -- and, on top of proven rules such as the Law of Large Numbers, tells you what is almost certain to happen. And it is part of the law, of course, that what is almost certain to happen may actually not.

With respect to the "house edge" definition, I don't think I can do much better than grab a wikipedia definition, and you've already done that from the looks of things. I make it a point to avoid gambling -- except for the occasional poker game when I pay a small fixed stake and view it as buying an evening's entertainment -- and so don't really follow gambling terminology. Until a couple of days ago I didn't know what an "each way" bet was, for example.

I can help on the maths of probability, but not on "in-house" terms, I'm afraid.

[ukanonymous]

Well in creating the game I am using program functions mt_rand() or rand()

So this really is scary for sure. LOL