Do You Agree That Uk Will Suffer More Than Other Single Eu State, If No Trade Deal On Brexit As Each Eu States Do Not Have Uk As Its Largest Export Market.

[willbewhatiwill]

About 50% of UK exports goes to the EU (27 other states), hence UK will suffer more than other single EU state, if no trade deal on Brexit.

[New Judge]

Presumably with the assumption that the trade will no longer take place?

If reciprocal tariffs are introduced the UK will be better off because it runs a hefty trade deficit with the EU (i.e. they will pay more tariffs to us than we do to them). If the EU takes its business elsewhere (possible but not likely) we can do the same.

[Old_Geezer]

Since the EU is comprised of many states there is a possibility that each single one won't have as many issues as the UK, but it isn't assured; and "suffer" is an unjustifiably emotive word.

Plus the EU as a whole will be worse of than the UK, as been stated many times.

What you are getting at is that the affect of tariffs will be higher. Since we can still trade and trade with the whole of the world, the difference isn't going to be great, plus it will be temporary as new contracts are being put into place, plus also the cost is insignificant as the price of regaining sovereignty.

Overall I think this is a non-issue in practical terms. But a wonderful chance to push, in an effort to continue project fear.

[scooping]

But they export more to us than we buy from them. Therefore in their interest to trade.

[willbewhatiwill]

scooping,
For example, trading between Tesco and a customer. The customer buys from Tesco but Tesco do not buy from the customer - the balance of trade between Tesco is positive against the customer.
However, the customer losses more than Tesco should the customer's trade with Tesco becomes much harder.

[Old_Geezer]

Nah. They go shop at Lidl.

[willbewhatiwill]

New Judge,
Trading between UK and EU will still take place.
EU is the world’s richest trading bloc (rich than USA, China, Japan, etc.) with 500 million consumers, not a poor trading bloc, as brixters try to assert.

EU is the world’s richest trading bloc (rich than USA, China, Japan, etc.) with 500 million consumers, not a poor trading bloc, as brixters try to assert.

Around 44% of UK exports go to the EU, however from EU's perspective around 7% of EU exports goes to the UK. Multi-national manufacturers (like for automotive, aerospace, machinery, pharmaceuticals, foodstuff, etc) in EU currently investing their production base in UK (as a gateway to supplying the EU market) will divert & re-locate their future investments to a fully pledged EU state should UK Brexit - this will cost several hundreds of billions of pounds in UK in lost revenues.

Also, around in a trade deal, UK will lose most of her £50bn pa trade in financial services with the EU.

[willbewhatiwill]

Old_Geezer,
Around 44% of UK exports go to the EU, however from EU's perspective around 7% of EU exports goes to the UK.

[Old_Geezer]

But the percentages are related to different gross figures. Beware comparing apples & oranges.

[willbewhatiwill]

Old_Geezer,
What different gross figures?
I am comparing like with like - i.e. UK export to the EU and in turn EU exports to UK!

[New Judge]

I think we've done most of this on here over the past 12 to 18 months. I don't recall you being around. Some of your figures are a bit, shall we say, inaccurate and I really can't be bothered to go over them all. However, one thing needs addressing:

"Also, around in a trade deal, UK will lose most of her £50bn pa trade in financial services with the EU."

Who told you that or how did you assume it? What's the basis for that assumption?

[Old_Geezer]

There are two gross figures. The size of the total UK exports to the EU; and the size of the total EU exports to the UK. Of course the size of EU export trade is larger so a smaller percentage figure results. Whereas the UK export trade is smaller and so a larger percentage figure results. You should compare like with like to get an undistorted view. It's gross £/€ trade rather than percentages that gives you that. But I think I implied earlier, I don't believe this tack indicates a significant issue. Both parties have an interest in forming a deal. Both will take it in their stride if one doesn't get agreed.

[DTCwordfan]

Have you got a degree in economics and politics?

Depends on a pluralism of factors....where do you set exchange rates, interest rates, inward investment vs outward investment, employment levels, oil and gas prices, metal and other commodity prices - and then chuck in regional and int'l politics.....

We're waiting, Maharajah Guru.....I love eating the forecast snakes when they are caput, by the way. Very good for the winter diet.

[willbewhatiwill]

New Judge,
I have been around on Sky news blogs,
Europe accounts for 50% of the total value of UK exports of services[ONS; Feb 2013]
Services are defined as intangible commodities such as the provision of legal & financial services from overseas.
In February 2013:
:: Total UK EXPORTS of services increased from £89.5 billion in 2010 to £97.3 billion in 2011.
:: Total UK IMPORTS of services increased from £42.1 billion in 2010 to £43.6 billion in 2011. [ONS; Feb 2013]
Hence UK’s net surplus in export of services alone to Europe on services is around 50% of £53.7bn (£97.3bn - £43.6bn) which is £26.83bn.

[Garaman]

//Have you got a degree in economics and politics?//

You would need much more than a degree, but that wouldn't stop some pretending to know.

[RobNorth]

No - for example, poor little Denmark, to whom we send 5.65 billion dollars p.a. (a LOT of money to them) for their products, while they send us 3.5 billion in return....that's peanuts to our politicians, they give away four times that amount each year to dubious causes overseas without batting an eyelid.
So you think we will suffer more than Denmark?
We send Germany $94 billion and in return they send us $39 billion...
Neither of these countries sell us anything we don't make here, but the reality is that trade will continue anyway, as it always does, seeing the Empires come and go...

[willbewhatiwill]

Old_Geezer,
Should UK leave the EU, around 45% of her exports to EU incur increased tariffs 9.6% for cars, around 40% for agricultural produce BUT for individual country in the EU, like Germany less than 5% of her exports to non-EU UK will incur increased tariffs.

[Old_Geezer]

And your point is ?
A smaller proportion may attract the new larger tariff, but as there is a difference in total export sizes ,that results in a similar hit to both. And indeed it is agreed that the total EU exports to the UK is greater than the total from the UK to the EU so the hit is slightly larger on the EU.

But to answer your initial question, no I do not agree it would be worse for the UK. I think it's known it would be worse in terms of £/€ on the EU.

[jourdain2]

I am absolutely not expert on economics (ask me about Jane Austen's writing and how she never writes converations between men alone with men - get the idea?) BUT I must quibble with your use of the oft-quoted figure of 'around 44% of the UK's exports go to the EU.

Not so. Exports are counted as going to the EU if they arrive on EU soil, but many are shipped on from there to other non-EU countries. It's ages ago since I read the article about this and saw it elsewhere, but I think it resulted in only just over 30% of our exports going to actual EU countries. Sources were very respectable, including the 'Telegraph' Business section.

You are, pardon me, promulgating 'Project Fear Part 2'. A lot of knickers are twisting in vocal places (as in the referendum) the rest of us remain calm and positive about Brexit - and 'the rest of us' are the majority. Calm down :)

[willbewhatiwill]

RobNorth
Many components for manufacture in UK comes from the EU.
Non-EU UK & will be ‘shooting herself in the foot’ if non-EU UK imposes tariffs on EU imports – this is because it adds to the costs of buying such goods in UK & adds to further disincentive for industries to invest and be based in UK.

[willbewhatiwill]

Old_Geezer,
My point is, should UK leave the EU, around 45% of UK will be affected by increased tariffs but each EU member (even Germany)exports (5% to UK, at most) to non-EU UK will have increased tariffs.