Possible invasion, 1939-1940

[Lonnie]

Is it possible that had the Germans wanted, they could have invaded straight after Dunkirk?.

Please give some thought to this, and serious answers please, I think they could have, but i'd like to hear your views please. Thanks.

[Dingoeater]

Do you mean could they have assembled a flotilla at Dunkirk and followed the English across the Channel with the men that had been harrying the British? The short answer is no, even if that number of ships already filled with the correct equipment, rations, heavy weaponry etc. had been assembled somewhere (see below) Dunkirk would have been too small for such an undertaking.

If you mean that if the German Army had a few corps assembled in the right place at the right time just ready to cross the channel they might have succeeded in invading I should answer with a cautious "no". Given that the German Army tonly captured the channel ports and the Dutch North Sea ports around the same time as Dunkirk that would have left Hamburg as a point of departure for an invasion force and that's an awful lot of sea to cross being bombed and strafed as you go. While I can think of no reference that states this explicitly what is stated is the aim of forcing the British, Dutch, Belgians and French to capitulate rapidly after capturing any channel ports where they could be reinforced or resupplied in a major way.

Don't forget that most generals at the time had been soldiers in WWI and remembered the debacle at Gallipoli all too well. It was considered "imprudent" to attempt to land and establish a beach-head under enemy fire. Germany later contemplated it with Operation Sealion but their surviving papers are very pessimistic about the number of casualties that would be incurred if, rather than when, they could break out and romp around England. Indeed the Allies estimated that D-day would be around twice as expensive in casualties than it actually was.

Hope this helps.

[gary baldy]

A land based invasion is easier to execute than a sea borne one. The German supply lines were already stretched to the limit and resistance from Britain would be very strong who had a very good navy and air force.
I'm sure the Yanks would have stepped in with help pretty quickly aswell.
There was no invasion plan in place at the time of Dunkirk so it would have an opportunist invasion (never a good idea).
There was no great will from the top to invade Britain aswell with the Soviet Union being Hitler's number one target.
Perhaps a limited invasion in 1940 could have been possible but it would have been cut off by stretched supply lines across Europe and entirely isolated by the British Navy throwing everything into the North Sea and the Channel to completely cut those supply lines.
Perhaps East Anglia would have fallen but that would be no great loss would it?

[Lonnie]

Thanks for your answers guys, it was just me thinking about it that brought this on.

I agree there were no invasion plans at the time of Dunkirk, so its just hypothesis, I don't believe at that time, there were any defense plans of any note on our side either, and our warships were engaged elsewhere also.

Not forgetting the two airforces, the Gemans had quite a few planes in the area, and if the Germans had managed somehow to land and hold a Beachhead until heavier stuff got accross, (i'm thinking as I write, so please excuse my meanderings), that part in itself would have taken time, which in itself, would probably have given our Navy time to get back, and on that basis, more than any other, it wouldn't have worked.

Thanks again Dingoeater and gary baldy, for your civilised and well thought out answers.

[gary baldy]

Its such a multi faceted scenario (be good to get some big war game type computer on the job!) there is no telling.
The German fleet would have to be diverted to invasion duties upon which the British Navy would throw eveything at them.
The Battle of Britain would be fought out at sea not in the air.
An airborne invasion would not be feasible and the Luftwaffe did not have the resources to carry one out.
Germany would have to secure the Channel and North sea before an invasion could even be considered - something that would be very difficult and take a very long time. I would like to think the British Navy could outclass the German.
For the biggest tactical gains an invasion would have to occur on the south coast which was very well defended.
I think us northerners would come charging down to defend aswell.
I think geography might play apart aswell.Charging across the lowlands of Europe is a bit different than forcing your way inland especially if an invasion plan involved coming in on the east coast.
The idea of being invaded is not very nice to think about but very interesting to speculate about though.
Just as interesting is the idea that if an invasion was imminent would the British sign a peace accord with Germany to avoid it? This is not as far from the truth as would seem - as i have said before Hitler had no beef with Britain and if he could negotiate a treaty wherein Britain had no further involvement it would leave him free to concentrate on the Soviet Union.

[Lonnie]

In reply to gary, I belive the general American public wanted to stay out, (nothing to do with them , it was just a localised European war), also, because of the Neutrality act, and their state of unpreparedness, they couldn't be seen to be selling arms to us, which is where the 'Lend Lease', eventually came in.

As far as a 'Peace Accord' is concerned, i'm pretty sure that if, instead of Churchill, Lord Halifax had become Prime Minister, a negotiated peace would have been a certainty.

You paint a very interesting scenario for an alternative Battle of Britain, very interesting indeed. Thanks.

[baller26]

i have always been told by freinds and family and by history teachers that if the Germans had of followed us back they could have succeeded in an invasion as there was not a single bullet left in this country for us to retalliate.

[johnlambert]

If the Royal Navy had been sized into 2 equal parts, one sent just of of the german navys range west of Ireland and the other half sent to Scappa Flow, it could have carried out a classic pincer movement on any invasion the germans could mount at the time and decimate it, as in the English channel there is nowhere to escape. I said in an earlier post that this would leave the UK dominant power in Europe, however in hindsight I think it woild leave a stalemate and we would have to wait until the Americans sided with us before we could attack Hitler on the continent. These threads have really got me thinking, thanks for posting them guys

[Merthyr Imp]

I've always understood that it was command of the air that would have been necessary for a successful cross-channel invasion. The Allies had command of the air for the D-Day landings and so the ships were able to cross the channel unopposed.

I don't think it would have been so much a naval battle by itself that would have decided any German attempt in 1940. If the Germans had been able to be unopposed in the air at that time then the Royal Navy, however strong in numbers of ships, would have been in serious trouble from air attacks. As was shown at various times later in the war air power wins out over ships nearly every time. So the Germans needed to knock out the RAF as a preliminary for any invasion. That's what they had started to do, by attacking airfields in the south of England, but then, for reasons which I've never been too sure about, they switched their attacks to London and other cities instead (the 'Blitz'). Part of the plan, I believe, was to draw the RAF into combat in the air and reduce its numbers that way. As we know, that (the Battle of Britain) didn't succeed, and their failure to put the RAF out of the equation meant any invasion plans kept on being postponed until Russia became the priority. As has been said, though, there is some doubt on whether their heart was really in an invasion of Britain. On the other hand, after the invasion of Russia began it left them fighting a battle on two fronts which is never a good thing. But that only became a real problem for them after the USA entered the war, which they probably wouldn't have done if the Japanese hadn't got involved. If the German invasion of Britain HAD gone ahead I'm not sure the Americans would have actually done anything.

[Rumford]

It is also worth remembering that it took some years to develop the landing craft that were used on D-Day and they were tried out, particularly against the Japanese, before they were used in the Channel. The English Channel is a very dodgy piece of water to cross and it is quite possible that an invasion launched in unsuitable craft would have simply sunk without any major military intervention.

I have heard that many Germans at the time thought that the English Channel was a canal, apparently the term for the English Channel in German is similar to that for canal, and were surprised by the 22 miles of choppy, unpredictable water that it actually is.

[stanleyman]

Perhaps you should read this to get a good idea as to what happened at Dunkirk in responce to the last two posts on this subject.

http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWdunkirk.htm

[Lonnie]

Terrific link johnlambert, thanks, i've kept it for future reference.

[pugwashjw]

There is an answer to this from the Bible. In the prophecy from the Book of Daniel, [ Dan. 7;3-8 & 17-25] It relates to the "Immense Image" [ Dan.2; 31-45] made up of 'Head of Gold', chest and arms of silver, hips and thighs of copper, legs of iron and feet of mixed iron and clay. It depicts four world powers, 1. Babylonia, 2. Medo/Persia, 3.Greece and 4. Rome. Rome and its offshoot, the British/American Alliance, Mixed political and religious connections, are the last world power before Armageddon, the complete destruction of mens worldly government. So the answer to the question is that Germany could not possibly win. The Alliance MUST prevail. witness the collapse of its only real opponent, the U.S.S.R. They also collapsed. Any "world" power that might come up against this Alliance will fail. Even if it is the whole of Islam, it will fail. The Alliance is set up to be destroyed by Act of God.. Insurance companies too. For too long they have used this term "Act of God" to avoid their responsibilities.