Can we survive the next major asteroid impact?

[Aonz]

A one kilometre asteroid striking the Earth at a typical speed of 25 to 30 kilometres per second would have a devastating effect. On impact [there will be] an explosion equivalent to 300,000 megatons of TNT - the largest man-made nuclear weapon had a yield of 60 megatons... Debris ... ejected into sub orbital trajectories... will later re-enter the atmosphere like a massive meteor shower all over the planet creating an intense global heat pulse, raising fires that will destroy a significant proportion of the biomass... [B]ut the main threat to life will be the vast amount of dust and debris injected into the upper atmosphere, combined with smoke from the firestorms... Statistically, we are hit by an asteroid of this size, not every 30 million years, but every 100,000 years. [Cropped for space and clarity, to make it easier to answer - AB Ed]

[templeman]

Forgive me for not taking your question too seriously, but I have to ask when was the last one and when can we expect the next. If the earth is hit by an asteroid of the size you mention then the damage will obviously be catastrophic. Some of us will survive; many won't. We have no defence against such an incident. Personally I'm more worried about the danger of crossing the road.

[Aonz]

At midnight GMT on August 10th 1998, asteroid ML14 crossed the orbit of the Earth at the exact point the latter had occupied only 18 hours earlier. Had ML14 reached that point at 06.00 the previous morning, an area the size of France would have been totally devastated by 06.05. By 08.00 most of the world's vegetation would have been in flames. By late October 30-40% of the human race would be dead or dying. ML14 has a diameter of 2 kilometres. We could be hit tomorrow, we wouldn't necessarily even see it coming. We didn't even see ML14 until it was going away from us. Did you see comet Schoemaker-Levy smash into Jupiter in 1994? Had it hit Earth instead, we would not be here, not any of us.

[j2buttonsw]

Are you about to sell us asteroid insurance?

[strozzi]

Aonz, with all due respect, I am reminded of the saying that **if my auntie had testicles she would be my uncle**.
And I don't spend too much time considering the implications of that even though I am aware that there have been some unfortunate women born that way.

[strozzi]

More seriously; and I assume that your question is of that nature; the answer is that many people would not survive. I assume that we will not know until we are on the receiving end of such an event.

[Squirrel]

The day that such a mammoth rock can be deflected or destroyed might not be so far off. Ask anyone I know what my answer to everything is and they will say (and I have had to deviously cens�r this) "Not those (ducking) lasers again!" They use them on films all the time to spectacularly blast or melt expensive equipment, and they definitely exist, so it shouldn't be more than a matter of setting up thousands of the little devils strategically around the solar system, and hoping they have enough power to destroy an asteroid. And then there are the many films about cracking open the incoming asteroids with nuclear bombs or towing them gradually off course. A personal idea (probably too hard to actually do) could be to send a really huge piece of whatever's handy straight towards the rock, and give it an equal or greater momentum with the aid of rockets / bombs, so the resulting impact will render the fragments harmless.

[Squirrel]

Strange: - I've just spent the last 15 minutes trying to find which word I used in the above post was a "profanity", and it turned out to be "�ensor" itself!

[ulrika]

Now you've made me giggle. Squirrel ......... nuts !!

[Aonz]

Hi Squirrel, you wrote "The day that such a mammoth rock can be deflected or destroyed might not be so far off". Read my second post, we might not even see the "mammoth rock" coming. I would like to thank the rest of for your helpful and predictable comments.

[Squirrel]

In that case, crossing our fingers should suffice.

[JohnPPotts]

It would critically depend on how soon it was detected. If we spotted it early enough we could probably do something about it. Applying a small but continual force to nudge it out of the way would be prefereable to the movie favoured blowing it to bits in near Earth orbit, as then most of the energy goes toward the Earth, with disasterous consequences. If it actually hit, though, the answer is probably no.

[Gef]

We (humans) might not but life on Earth would. About 60 million years ago a huge meteor(ite) crashed into the Gulf of Mexico and wiped out the dinosaurs. However, small mammals (from which we are descended) and the birds survived.

[Bazzdude]

Don't worry -- Bruce Willis will save us