deal or no deal

[mumsie_wumsie]

Did anyone watch this program yesterday(wed.9th) ? The chap that was playing had a really good board left, £15,000 upwards and he was offered £15,000. Noel Edmonds made such a big deal about this chaps son wanting him to deal at this amount, that he did. He went on to play the game to its end and he had £250.000 in his box. Needless to say he was absolutely gutted. Made me seriously think that this game is 'fixed'.

[Old_Geezer]

Serves him right for not having the courage to continue. That said I don't know his circumstances and whether the was desperate for the £15k.

Anyway he came with nothing, left with £15k, that's nothing to be sneezed at. He just needs to step back and look at reality rather than "what if" wishes.

[sidkid]

I've always thought it was fixed to make it more entertaining. I've seen many 'imposssible' magic tricks on tv subsequently explained and shown actually how simple they were that I believe it would be quite easy for the cards in the boxes to be changed round as the show progresses.....

[sidkid]

Of course, as with all conspiracy theories, a lot of people would have to be in on it, so perhaps its not fixed.....

[sadielady]

Thought that was Tuesdays game? It was his wife, she was the one that said first of all about his son. Made him feel very guilty. Think any friends/relatives in the audience should keep quiet. The man playing was very indecisive right from the beginning, a bag of nerves. Said that all the time he had been there he had suffered from upset tummy and mouth ulcers. The man yesterday was the big Scots man.

[wendilla]

Sidkid funny you should say that as that has gone through my mind. And have you noticed that no one deals half way through. Wonder if they are told they have not to deal too soon.

[factor-fiction]

No.

I think a lot of participants get things hopelessly wrong though. That Scottish participant who wanted to retrain as a teacher (but said thing like " I done it " and " I shoulda went for it...") should have accepted some of the earlier offers.

I must admit though that although I am good at maths I can't always see the statistical side. For example, what the player has in front of him is set at the outset. Does it really matter in what order the other boxes are opened?

I also get unsure what I'd do in certain circumstances. For example if there are 4 boxes left - £1, £5, £10 and £20000 - and the banker offers £3000, should I accept? One part of me says " the average amount remaining is just over £5000 so I should reject the offer". The other side of me says "there is a 3 in 4 chance that my box contains a pittance so I should take the Banker's offer".

[Old_Geezer]

Since all boxes have an equal chance of holding any of the numbers, no it makes no difficult before the event which order you opt to open them.

I tend to make things easy for myself and simply divide the number of boxes left into the maximum value left to work out the order of offer that would be acceptable. If the high end values are bunched together one may wash to add a bit for the benefit of the good fall back values. If the banker's offer isn't near that then why should one deal ?

Consequently most of the banker's offers are garbage, designed to attract those who can not afford to lose the offered amount.

Srick with your original box, it has as much chance as any of holding the largest value left.

[factor-fiction]

That's more or less how I used to do it (work out the average value of those left) but now I'm not so sure.
To take an even more extreme case suppose there are 8 boxes left- the 7 smallest blues and one big red (say £100000). The average amount left is a little over £12500. Suppose the banker offers £8000. I always used to think that I'd play on, but now I wonder whether there is a 7 in 8 chance that would lead to me getting a small blue value so why take the risk- take what's on offer instead as £8000 would come in very handy. Maybe we just become more cautious as we get older

[gingejbee]

I've never watched this show - but really don't think that any television/ production company would now risk "rigging" any outcome. The penalties would be extremely harsh.

[andy-hughes]

As I have said before, it is a testament top Noel Edmunds' skill as a presenter that he manages to make such a cliff-hanger atmosphere out of what is purely a game of chance.

Surely the approach is to gamble, and take what you are left with - it will be upwards of 1p more than you started with, so you can't lose.

[Postdog]

bring back 15 to 1 is what I say.......

[ummmm]

It's a guessing game. That's all...

[notasyoungasiwas]

My dear old Dad is convinced it's fixed and we can't persuade him otherwise! I personally don't think it is, but Noel doesn't half go on a lot sometimes !

[Old_Geezer]

Why take the risk ? Because the potential win is worth it.

Besides it's not as simple as that. Next round you could well be on a 4 in 5 chance of getting a small blue value and the offer grows accordingly. But is almost always worth rejecting for the same reasons it was the previous round.

[grasscarp]

I watch Deal or no Deal now. I used to hate it but my father in his nineties and bedridden loved it. Christmas before last I went to see him and Deal or No Deal was on. I tried to interest him, but he didnt want to watch it. I knew the end was near and sadly it was. Watch it now in his memory. I dont think it is fixed but you can always see from the safety of your sofa what they should have done!

[mumsie_wumsie]

Whoops!!sorry, it was Tuesday's game. My point was that even had he taken out two or even three of the bigger boxes he would still have been left with at least the £15000 he dealt for. I know it is a game of chance, but on this occassion it did seem a little odd....and then it turned out that he did have the £250,000 in his box. HHHMMMM....

[Francis Asis]

I have a theory that at the start there is a 22 to 1 chance that the £250000 is in your box. This means its more likely to be in the wings. So if you are offered the swap you should take it. Am I right?

[WHU010]

I have been in the audience and there is not way game is fixed at the beginning - boxes are piled up on the walk way, the players go to their places and a floor manager goes round with a bag containing balls with the 22 numbers on, and player picks a ball out of bag holds it up and one of the other floor managers brings the box to them. The boxes are in full view of the audience all the time. However my partner has a theory that they select a certain number of players who could be picked, look at their box numbers and the director is told by the independent adjudicator what is in those boxes and they pick one accordingly. He also thinks that Noel is told in his ear piece - if not what is in the box - but how to play the game and what to say.....well that's his theory and he was with me in the audience.

[Old_Geezer]

IMO you are not right Francis. It may have been more likely to be in the wings at the start of the game but by the time all but two of the boxes have been opened it is down to 50:50 as to whether it was actually with you or in the wings. At each box opening the likelihood reduced. It would only be in your favour had someone who knew the contents opened the boxes, deliberately avoiding the £250k one, if it were out there.

[Francis Asis]

Oh well, old G. it was a good theory while it lasted.