We Don't Really Know

[teacake44]

The true death figure from this virus, because every statement we hear is, ( people who have died ( in) hospital over the last 24hours, and the absents of the death rate in the community, at home or care home, only given the occasional mention. Are we again being lied to because people are not getting to hospital for various reasons to get the care they need like Boris as got when he needed it.

[ummmm]

'has'

[Bobbisox1]

We also aren’t hearing of the many thousands who are surviving it TC

[teacake44]

^^ very true!!

[Peter Pedant]

one a day it is like those awful Brexit threads started by 3T and all absolutely identical day after day

to recap the last four weeks
1) research and reliance on death certificates is notoriously fraught. ( crap in laymans terms ) we have known this for at least 50y

2) no. People do not lie on death certificates in this country as it is a criminal offence. They have done in China but so what we arent china in order to avoid being sent to a conventration camp

3) the peripheral certs are added at the week ends

4) the numbers are likely to be more than those quoted so it is not true to say we have no idea - we have an idea of a lower bound

5) so long as the method of counting doesnt change then the changes or slopes of the graph are likely to be accurate

and that is about it for today's - "me no know no, the death figures"
thank yo for reading down to here

exactly the same will be posted tomoorow
ye shall know it by
" so no one knows how many people are dying or have died or will.....etc etc

[teacake44]

So the government will not lie to the home deaths, but will dance around them until such a time . :0)

[Peter Pedant]

// So the government will not lie to the home deaths, but will dance around them until such a time .//

no - - - - a dead body is a dead body - easy to tell - they dont move or speak - difficult to conceal - they cry out for burial and smell if you dont

think parrot on floor of cage

so in terms of the metaphor you ( teeky) is using
there is always a time when the dance music - - stops.

[jim360]

I don't believe we're being lied to for the simple reason that I don't believe that the Government knows the true figures either. Nobody can possibly claim to have complete information about the virus and its spread across an entire country. Moreover, the Government is even honest about this: they have consistently emphasised that the figures are based on hospital statistics, that home deaths will be tracked later (eg the ONS update tomorrow might give us a clue as to what was going on up until maybe March 27th), and that all of this is based on a lag anyway as the symptoms follow transmission by some days.

Numbers of those known to have recovered are also made available, where possible. But it's difficult to keep up with the flurry of updates and statistics as they come in, and, in truth, the full picture of what is going on will only become clear months, if not years, from now.

[teacake44]

With the sort of technology we have today I can't believe that they have a problem with not knowing the number of home deaths to some sort of degree, most governments with hold information under normal circumstances, with a situation like we have at the moment I would guess they have shielded us to a certain level as not to create panic as regards to home deaths, may be to come clean with the latter would encourage more folk to abide by the rules.?

[sherrardk]

They’ll release the figures when they have them although I don’t expect the general public knowing the precise figure of deaths from the virus is the top of their agenda right now.

Pretty low shot bringing Boris into, of course he’s going to get hospital care when it’s required.

[jim360]

No amount of technology can keep track of things that are not reported, either because a test for Covid-19 was never performed, or because you need to wait for an autopsy report, or because the people died alone, or... I am sure I could think of myriad reasons why the information is simply not (yet) available.

It may well be that, on top of this, the Government is keeping some information back for various reasons, but what I am sure of is that much of what we aren't being told is because the people who "should" be telling us don't know either.

I mentioned that the ONS will release preliminary death counts for the week ending March 27th tomorrow. The very fact that it's preliminary also speaks volumes: the data will have to undergo some quality control before being released, and even afterwards may be subject to revision.

[jim360]

I should add that another factor is that, so far, the UK has tested only just over a quarter of a million people for Coronavirus, and will certainly never test everybody in the UK -- so, again, there is a lot of information that can only be modelled, or estimated, rather than known. Confirmed cases stand at a little over 50,000 today, and that is likely to represent a smallish fraction of the actual total, maybe at most a tenth.

People can't lie about what they don't already know. Every country is in this position, to some extent or another. The possible exceptions are countries whose Governments are not accountable directly to the people, or to "strong man" governments: North Korea, China, Brazil, Belarus and a few others. For the rest, incompetence and ignorance are far more likely explanations than malice for any gap between what we are told is happening and what actually happens.

[ABSpareEditor]

I have moved this thread into the subcategory "Current Affairs". This can be found under the category "News".

[allenlondon]

PP You always manage, in the midst of your sound scientific thoughts, to insert a bit of personal prejudice (“ They have done in China but so what we arent china in order to avoid being sent to a conventration camp”)

Does tend to devalue the rest, I fear - i.e. what is true, what is PP ranting.

[Togo]

A couple of graphs comparing date over the last few years. Notice that we didn't close down the Country in 2015 or 2018.


https://thumbsnap.com/i/XUvPqmlE.jpg

https://thumbsnap.com/i/GXHWmnbI.jpg

[fiction-factory]

Bit too early to make comparisons. What will figures be when Covid hits peak. What would it have been without lockdown. Maybe Togo's right and the vast majority of the world's scientists/medics have got it wrong

[fiction-factory]

It's hard to believe isn't it that some still don't get that this isn't just flu

[bednobs]

TC, you'll be really pleased to hear on bbc I have just read that the ONS has released trhe figures for all CV related deaths for march
"10:43
New UK March figures include deaths outside hospital
Michelle Roberts
Health editor, BBC News online
The Office for National Statistics has released new figures from March on the number of deaths involving coronavirus. The data gives us the most accurate picture to date of where deaths are occurring.
Unlike the statistics we have heard about so far, these include every community death that week linked to Covid-19 in England and Wales.
According to the data, which spans seven days up to 27 March, 539 death certificates mentioned coronavirus disease - 4.8% of all deaths that week. That was a rise from just 1% of deaths the week before.
The figures seem much smaller than the current total number of deaths for the UK – which stand at 5,373 – because most of the deaths from coronavirus have occurred in the last 10 days as the pandemic picked up pace.
The vast majority of coronavirus deaths are happening in hospitals – 501 of the 539 deaths analysed here – but some are occurring in hospices and care homes too, according to the ONS."
I wont post a link cause it's a live page so that article will have fallen off

[jim360]

We're in the middle of something, Togo. It is simply pointless, and moronic, to compare this to something in the past.

[Togo]

I didn't produce the figure Jim....they came from the ONS. Perhaps you should write to them and tell them what you think. Or tell them to stop issuing statistics.

[THECORBYLOON]

The Government's figures are not up to date since they count only those REPORTED as dying in hospital in a specific period, not DYING in that period.

The ONS data capture those other than in hospital dying in England and Wales but include those suspected of the virus.

It does appear to be a wee bit of a mish-mash of data but then again, I'm no expert.