Worth A Flutter?

[D_Lucas]

Is it going to a UKIP victory in the Stoke by-election on February 23rd?

[Gromit]

This is normally a Labour seat.
In 2005 and 2010 the LibDems came second.
In 2015 due to a backlash of the their part in the Coaltion Government, they were annilated and scrapped in 5th.

So the result in this by-election will depend on:

- Labour have picked a known local candidate, is that enough to hold the seat.
- Do the voters still think UKIP have anything to offer now Brexit has happened.
- Will the LibDems recover, and if so, where will their votes come from.
- Will the Conservatives campaign, they have already said the other by-election is their priority
- UKIP have picked their leader but no one has heard of him or recognises him, so are UKIP just a one man party (Farage)

It will be interesting. UKIP could win it. My guess is that Labour will just about hold on.

[ichkeria]

I heard that a very recent poll had the appalling Mr Nuttall 10 percentage points ahead of Labour
Well, it is Stoke, but even so ...

[Old_Geezer]

"now Brexit has happened"
Gosh that white paper must have passed quicker than I thought, and no 2 year EU delay ! :-)

[Gromit]

// According to the poll commissioned by Labour Leave, Ukip has a strong lead in the Labour stronghold with 35 per cent 10 points ahead of Labour. //

// Pressure group Labour Leave have been forced to defend their Stoke-on-Trent by-election opinion poll, which put Ukip leader Paul Nuttall in the lead.

// The Labour Leave admitted that the survey was conducted on Facebook. //

// But polling expert Matt Singh, the founder of Number Cruncher Politics, raised concerns about the survey. "All indications are that the Stoke poll is garbage. Ignore," he said. //

[D_Lucas]

The odds moved from 4/5 favouring Labour with 11/10 for UKIP to 5/6 and evens then it was 10/11 for both. Now It's 4/5 favouring UKIP and evens for Labour.
Should have got in there earlier!

[mikey4444]

What are the Bookies saying ?

[Baldric]

see post @ 19:48