Peacefull Britain

[jake-the-peg]

So Britain has become a more peaceful place in the last 10 years

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22275280
http://news.sky.com/story/1082202/uk-peace-index-shows-fall-in-violent-crime

And it's an international study -not government statistics.

Murder rates have halved

How does this square with the story of violent Britain certain newspapers would tell us?

[friedgreentomato]

I heard this on the radio this morning, Broadland Norfolk is the safest place in the UK!!!

Its also the most boring!

[Kromovaracun]

This is not the only study showing this. There have been plenty others over the past several years. Several ABers are familiar with the research of Steven Pinker, but it's long been known that violence in Western societies has been decreasing considerably since the early 1990s (though nobody's really sure why).

People refuse to believe this, however. People are determined to believe that we live in a more violent world than ever before. I predict that the responses you're going to get are going to be either a) people responding with personal tales of violence in their areas/lives; b) people responding with particularly gruesome and vile crimes and asking you to commit to saying violence is lower when such things are happening.

Both of these responses would only really be valid if the research was suggesting no violence at all, which it doesn't. As it stands, the evidence suggests that there's plenty of violence around - just not as much.

I doubt that'll stop people though.

[ummmm]

70's and 80's we had some serious football violence. That has steadily gone downhill, thankfully....

Football would have played a huge part in violent crime stats...

[Gromit]

// UK violent crime rate is significantly higher than the European average //

So still room for improvement then.

[LazyGun]

I do know that repeated studies have clearly demonstrated that there is consistently a huge gap between peoples perception of how violent or anti-social or crime-ridden their own local society is, compared to what the crime statistics say the crime rate actually is.Part of the reason for this might simply be a lack of reporting of crimes,either through apathy, fear, or out of a sense that nothing will be done.

Better understanding of this gap would be useful. It cannot be entirely down to obsessional or sensational reportage in the media....

[youngmafbog]

Depends where you live though Jake. Some areas are still very high such as Lewisham and it is small consolation if you live in those areas to be told violent crime is on the decrease.

It is however interesting to note these three:
The number of police officers had no correlation to levels of peace
Fear of crime is greater than the reality: 25% of Britons think they will be a victim of crime, but only 4% will experience crime
But UK violent crime rate is significantly higher than the European average

So, we are getting there but some way to go.

Perhaps now fewer committing the crimes we can afford to lock up those that do for more appropriate stretches and lower the figures even more.

[Old_Geezer]

Maybe the reporting of ever increasing gun incidents is the cause of the belief in rising violence even if reported actual violence is reducing ? It's possible folk react to an apparently more risky environment most.

[Hopkirk]

How much of the reduction is due to Police massaging the figures and under reporting?

[Hopkirk]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/373023/Crime-rate-plunges-as-police-massage-figures

[youngmafbog]

Hopkirk, it is numbers sent to Hospitals too, are you suggesting hospitals also massage figures?

[jake-the-peg]

//How does this square with the story of violent Britain certain newspapers would tell us? //

And there's my answer Hopkirk!

other interesting points guaranteed to upset the Daily Excess

+ Extreme poverty is the factor most closely associated with violence
+ The number of police officers had no correlation to levels of peace

[vulcan42]

The report is based on home office data, where does their information come from?

[ummmm]

LazyGun - I had a residents association leaflet put through my door with....CLAIM BACK OUR STREETS. Which really meant 'lets go litter picking'

Nothing happens round here!!

[Hopkirk]

Are you saying that the governments own statistics office, the ONS is wrong?

I quote from the above article:

Although crime levels are falling, forces are “overstating” the true rate at which they are dropping, the Office for National Statistics has found

[jim360]

In a previous thread some stats were posted shown that, while over the last decade murder rates have fallen considerably, they are also still slightly higher than 50 years ago. While the perception of crime is of course higher than the true rate, some people can point t that as a claim for a more violent Britain - taking a long-term rise over the recent downwards trend.

@hopkirk - of course we should be wary of government statistics. But they can't hide the number of murders that effectively since, after all, the victims have died and people would notice that. There are several completely government-independent studies that show a similar drop in violent crime.

[FredPuli43]

On perception, the representative of the Institute that organised this study said, on Radio 5, that 60 per cent thought that crime was increasing nationally but only 30 per cent of the same sample thought that crime was increasing locally. His deduction was that we all like to read about particularly horrible crimes and the media play these crimes up; these sell newspapers. However, these crimes are not where we live, so we imagine that the nation is getting worse but don't think that of our patch so much.

But perception , rather than fact, is what matters both in politics and in selling newspapers, so don't expect professionals in either field to stop suggesting otherwise than that the nation is going to the dogs, with ever increasing crime.

[Sqad]

YMF....

\\\\Hopkirk, it is numbers sent to Hospitals too, are you suggesting hospitals also massage figures? \\\\

Wow! the very thought of it..........

We are using a selected start and finish point for the survey....the last 10 years. No argument with those results or conclusions.

However, if you start the statistical analysis in 1960 to the present time....then this will give a completely different picture.

I agree with LazyGun......why the perception of a safe Britain does not correlate with the statistics?...........

Would you rather live in a more violent society but feel safe OR live in a more statistically safer society but feel in danger?

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22272167

Yet another stabbing on a London Bus, I heard this on a local London radio station, but found it very hard to find a news report on it on the web, plenty of pasts Bus stabbings but not this particular one.

Perhaps that why the figures of the amount of violence are down, they tend not to get reported?

[jake-the-peg]

I doubt this research is based on Newspaper reports AOG!

But more seriously this sort of data is like the 'Overcrowded Britain ones'

It doesn't make a lot of sense to look at the country as a whole

You can live in a violent, overcrowded corner of London and your experience will be very different from people living in say Norwich or Salisbury.

That's why the most important stat there is that violence is down in London over what it was 10 years ago

[youngmafbog]

Squad, I think you have rather twisted my post.

I am more aware than most on how stats can be used to present a picture you want rather than the picture you want.

Going back to the 60's is probably not useful either as 1) we live in a very different society and 2) we really can't verify the 60's figures either since it would have been all manual and easily lost/changed/whatever.

Oddly here I find myself on the side of Jake. I think the media coverage distorts our view and makes us think it is more prevalent than it actually is. The problem is positive stories don't generally sell newspapers.