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I don't think that the Tories have much chance of winning the next Election whoever is leader, but they stand a better chance under Boris than they do under Dave, although there may not be much in it either way.
The only reason that we have a Tory government at the moment is that the Libs were prepared to hold their noses and make up the numbers. If they hadn't agreed to do so, Brown or Dave may have lumbered on for a few more weeks and then another election would have had to have been called. Its unlikely that the Tories would have got an outright majority, even then. So that is how we got here today.
Its impossible to think that the LibDems would attempt another pact in the weeks leading up to May 2015. Even if they do, their number of MPs will be depleted from the 57 that they got in 2010, thus making any hope of a coalition rather pointless.
( its worth pointing out that the LibDems LOST 5 seats in the 2010 election, a fact that seems to be forgotten by most people )
So it would seem that the only other situation will be for a Labour win, albeit with a small working majority, making for interesting times after 2015. I don't think that Labour have a strong enough team to stay in power for very long, unlike the administration under Blair. Say what you like about Thatcher...she was able to manage her rebels, well, until the early 90's at least. Dave shows no such skill I'm afraid. When he should have been at Westminster, kicking arse, he chose to have tea with Obama instead.
Its Major all over again.