Latest Poll Means What?

[FredPuli43]

Tories 36% Labour 36% UKIP 7%.(Haven't got Lib Dems) [Sky News] If you were Labour's campaign manager, would you be worried? Why is Labour not doing better? My opinion is that the leader doesn't come across as a leader. That's depressing, considering that Cameron is a very long way from being Churchill (or Lloyd George,come to that, taking a different party). He is a standard pattern, cut out, upper middle.

[Quizmonster]

ONE "latest poll"! Click http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/16/update-labour-lead-9/ instead.

[mikey4444]

It would appear that great minds think alike Quizmonster !

[Quizmonster]

Sorry, Mikey. Your YouGov answer wasn't there when I started to produce mine.

[emmie]

we have two years before the next election...

[mikey4444]

Actually, we have about 21 months, if you take into account that the Election campaign will probably start in April 2015. The breakup of the so-called coalition may come about even earlier than that.

What is going to be interesting and probably highly entertaining in the 2015 Election, is how the Tories and the LibDems are going to play it. They will both be going after the same vote and therefore will campaign against each other. But how is that going to work as they appear to be Best Friends at the moment ? Its been a long time since we were in a position of having an Election following a Coalition.

As I said, I can hardly wait !

[mushroom25]

//Its been a long time since we were in a position of having an Election following a Coalition.//

actually mikey this will be the first such opportunity. previous joint administrations haven't really been coalitions per-se, rather "national" governments borne of necessity, like during the war.

[mikey4444]

Of course you are right mushroom....which makes it even more exciting !

[naomi24]

Mikey, I said nothing about an open goal. He certainly doesn’t have an open goal. Regardless of the millstone around his neck that is Nick Clegg, and the mayhem he inherited from the previous government aside, political allegiance is often inbred and some people are incapable of acknowledging that the Labour party is no longer the party of the working man, and hasn’t been for a very long time. Supporters remain traditionally loyal, they cling to the idea of an antiquated ‘class’ system, and because of their unswerving commitment to a name – The Labour Party - they continue to defend the indefensible, regardless of what their elected representatives do and regardless of the damage they cause. At one time the working man had little aspiration, but now he does, and that is what staunch Labour voters fail to understand. Times have changed – people have changed - and the days of old Labour are gone.

Not sure what you're excited about. Should Labour be re-elected, what do you expect them to do?

[aelmpvw]

i don't vote but i still gripe ... that's because i am labour supporter living in a tory stronghold

[mikey4444]

Still not sure naomi why, if Milliband and Labour are so dreadful, why Dave is not consistently ahead in the Polls ?

I don't accept what you say about Labour, but even if I did, why are the Tories not more popular ?

I am excited because I have always enjoyed General Elections. I like the cut and thrust of debate. I first became involved when I was a 16 years old schoolboy and my interest has not waned since. It would seem to me that the next Election is likely to be the most interesting for years.

[naomi24]

Mikey, Of course you don’t accept what I said about Labour. That’s my point. You’re traditionally loyal, failing to acknowledge the Labour Party for what it has become, and clinging to ideals that no longer exist.

[mikey4444]

aelmpvw...this must be tough for you and I sympathise. I have been lucky always to live in strong Labour territory. I have often wondered what I would do if I found myself living in a Tory area but I'm not rich enough, so hopefully it will never happen !

Tactical voting would seem to be an option. Try voting for whoever stands the better chance of beating the Tories !.....Oh, wait, that might result in you voting for BNP-lite, which would never do ! Go as far as the bl**dy LibDems, but no further !

[mikey4444]

I have never felt the slightest need to apologise for voting Labour Naomi and I have see no reason to change now. But you still haven't answered my question........if Labour are so awful, why isn't Dave safely in front ? You have written at length about Labours faults, so why can't you answer the question ?

[Gromit]

The left vote has in the past tended to split. The majority going to Labour and a sizeable minority going to the LibDems. Recent evidence of by elections suggest the LibDem vote will collapse at a General election. Dis-satified LibDem voters are unlikely to transfer their vote to Conservative or UKiP.
Labour will be the beneficary of a LibDem collapse.
When the coalition does officially break up there will be a huge blame game and it will not be pleasant. April 2015, Falkirk will be long forgotten.

[mikey4444]

Gromit..the voice of common sense and reason...at last !

[naomi24]

Mikey, I’ve answered your question, but I’ll try again. Because he has a millstone around his neck, and because staunch Labour supporters cling to ideals that no longer exist. You will note that after years of Labour misrule, he is Prime Minister, so that should tell you something – not least that Labour doesn’t have an open goal either.

[emmie]

vote rigging shouldn't be forgotten... or is that what you think didn't happen..

[naomi24]

Em, who is that question for?

[jake-the-peg]

UK polling report analysis

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

They do tend to know what they're talking about.

//As ever, the more unusual a polls findings the more careful you should be – it could be a sign of UKIP support collapsing back towards the Conservatives, or could just be sample error. In YouGov’s polls over the last month we have seen some hints of a narrowing of the Lab lead and signs of UKIP support fading, and ICM do tend to show the lowest levels of UKIP support and relatively low Lab leads – all the same it looks quite odd. I would wait and see if it is repeated in other polls before getting too over-excited.
//

I'd go with that analysis

+ people tend to feel better about things when the weather's good, they're looking forward to holidays which favours the party in power

[emmie]

Gromit...