Lets answer the last question first. If May or Boris or pretty well anyone else were to replace Dave, then it would seem to be obvious that there would be a pick-up in the Tory vote. But with less than 24 months to go before we all trudge into the voting booths again, it is now probably too late. A leadership battle would be a very damaging experience for the Tories, as was seen when Major replaced Thatcher, and they won't have enough time to lick their wounds and re-group before May 2015. If they wanted to replace Dave then they should have done not long after the 2010 election, when Tory popularity started its decline, from which it has yet to recover. I don't think that they have any other alternative than to hold on to him, until after the Election at least.
Its hard to be exact where BNP-lites supporters come from but its pretty obvious that the majority come from the ultra right wing of the Tories. Some of those may go back to Dave but not enough. Floating voters like these sometimes don't bother to vote at all !
Has anybody else noted that the face of Farage hasn't been seen so much in the media of late ? Only a few months ago, you could hardly open your newspaper without him grinning back at you, normally with a pint in his hand.
I have never thought that BNP-lite would ever have many seats in Parliament, if any at all, and I see no reason to change my mind now. Perhaps Dave was right after all....A Bunch Of Fruitcakes, Loonies And Closet Racists !