ChatterBank11 mins ago
Uk's Economy To Overtake Germany's ?
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Well, that's what the report says . Anyone believe it?
Well, that's what the report says . Anyone believe it?
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I have no idea and it will not affect me as I will be dead by then! however it does have certain significance for the next election.
To me, the only chance for an outright Tory victory is an upsurge in the UK economy and that is what we are seeing.
We shall have to wait until we see one of Mikey's poles indicating the gap between Labour and the conservatives.....in other words, are the electorate feeling the " upsurge" and I think, at the moment...NO.
I have lived too long now to accept, reports, studies and statistics but I realise that we are entering into an interesting next few months.
To me, the only chance for an outright Tory victory is an upsurge in the UK economy and that is what we are seeing.
We shall have to wait until we see one of Mikey's poles indicating the gap between Labour and the conservatives.....in other words, are the electorate feeling the " upsurge" and I think, at the moment...NO.
I have lived too long now to accept, reports, studies and statistics but I realise that we are entering into an interesting next few months.
Just looked up some of the Centre for Economic and Business Research's past predictions. They are mainly a one man band led by Douglas McWilliams. For years he has been predicting the collapse of the €uro and break up of the EU. Both of which have not happened.
I suspect his prediction of France and German waning is based on that bias. I would be very surprised if we overtook Germany. Especially from the very poor state of our economy today, to race to the front of Eirope seems highly unlikely.
I suspect his prediction of France and German waning is based on that bias. I would be very surprised if we overtook Germany. Especially from the very poor state of our economy today, to race to the front of Eirope seems highly unlikely.
Here is the Centre for Economic and Business Research's prediction 2 years ago...
// The euro is likely to start breaking up in 2012 with more than one country expected to leave by the end of the year, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
In a prediction of the year ahead, the think tank argues that an eventual breakup of the eurozone is virtually assured over the next decade, revising its previous estimates of an 80 per cent likelihood of this happening up to a 99 per cent chance that the currency will collapse.
And while it admits that the euro's descent in 2012 is "not a done deal yet", it says that "our forecast is that by the end of the year at least one country (and probably more) will leave"- predicting a 60 per cent chance of this occurring.
CEBR's chief executive Douglas McWilliams says that European banks are likely to require a host of bailouts as the EU moves back into recession.
He argues that "most" of the French and German banking systems will need to be bailed out to compensate for writedowns on their sovereign debt holdings.
"They might even be nationalised as well," McWilliams says. "Many other European banks will go back into crisis." //
We should take the precictions of this 'Think Tank' with a pinch of salt.
// The euro is likely to start breaking up in 2012 with more than one country expected to leave by the end of the year, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
In a prediction of the year ahead, the think tank argues that an eventual breakup of the eurozone is virtually assured over the next decade, revising its previous estimates of an 80 per cent likelihood of this happening up to a 99 per cent chance that the currency will collapse.
And while it admits that the euro's descent in 2012 is "not a done deal yet", it says that "our forecast is that by the end of the year at least one country (and probably more) will leave"- predicting a 60 per cent chance of this occurring.
CEBR's chief executive Douglas McWilliams says that European banks are likely to require a host of bailouts as the EU moves back into recession.
He argues that "most" of the French and German banking systems will need to be bailed out to compensate for writedowns on their sovereign debt holdings.
"They might even be nationalised as well," McWilliams says. "Many other European banks will go back into crisis." //
We should take the precictions of this 'Think Tank' with a pinch of salt.
Fred
The CEBR cites Germany's depreciating currency for its future woes. Which reminds me of another of the CEBR failed predictions 5 years ago.
Pound could drop below parity with euro as British economy 'walks beside a cliff'
By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
28 December 2009
// The pound could sink below parity with the euro amid market doubts over the Government's plans to tackle the deficit, an economic forecaster warned today.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said the UK economy was walking 'five yards away from the edge of the cliff' and could be toppled by an 'unexpected gust'.
Chief executive Douglas McWilliams said currency markets were currently betting on a Conservative general election victory and tougher action to address the UK's deficit - but if Labour showed signs of narrowing the gap, the pound could plunge.
This was due to the poorly-received Pre-Budget Report earlier in the month, which failed to lay out detailed plans to tackle the public finances.
'If I had to bet, I would bet on the side of parity being broken,' Mr McWilliams said. //
The pound never dropped below parity with the Euro in the 5 years since they made that prediction.
The CEBR cites Germany's depreciating currency for its future woes. Which reminds me of another of the CEBR failed predictions 5 years ago.
Pound could drop below parity with euro as British economy 'walks beside a cliff'
By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
28 December 2009
// The pound could sink below parity with the euro amid market doubts over the Government's plans to tackle the deficit, an economic forecaster warned today.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said the UK economy was walking 'five yards away from the edge of the cliff' and could be toppled by an 'unexpected gust'.
Chief executive Douglas McWilliams said currency markets were currently betting on a Conservative general election victory and tougher action to address the UK's deficit - but if Labour showed signs of narrowing the gap, the pound could plunge.
This was due to the poorly-received Pre-Budget Report earlier in the month, which failed to lay out detailed plans to tackle the public finances.
'If I had to bet, I would bet on the side of parity being broken,' Mr McWilliams said. //
The pound never dropped below parity with the Euro in the 5 years since they made that prediction.
Squad is almost right
//To me, the only chance for an outright Tory victory is an upsurge in the UK economy and that is what we are seeing. //
The thing is though just the economy picking up is not enough - it has to work its way into the pockets of the like of you and me.
We all see headlines of the economy picking up but inflation is still outstripping salaries and so people's disposable income is dropping.
People don't measure a Government's economic performance by the GDP figure in the papers but in their paypackets
//To me, the only chance for an outright Tory victory is an upsurge in the UK economy and that is what we are seeing. //
The thing is though just the economy picking up is not enough - it has to work its way into the pockets of the like of you and me.
We all see headlines of the economy picking up but inflation is still outstripping salaries and so people's disposable income is dropping.
People don't measure a Government's economic performance by the GDP figure in the papers but in their paypackets
TV presentability is sadly too important - although lets not forget Cameron benefited from that too while we're throwing about accusations of snake oil - but that'll only give the edge
As Clinton said 'It's the economy stupid'
Incidently this decline in the relative importance of European economies is exactly the reason the EU is so important
Individually all of our economys will be small and not very important compared to China, US Brazil India etc
Together the EU's economy will probably be on a par with China
That's the world these days - get big or get lost
As Clinton said 'It's the economy stupid'
Incidently this decline in the relative importance of European economies is exactly the reason the EU is so important
Individually all of our economys will be small and not very important compared to China, US Brazil India etc
Together the EU's economy will probably be on a par with China
That's the world these days - get big or get lost
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