Has Putin Miscalculated With His Ukrainian Adventure?

[ichkeria]

I've said enough on this issue, but this article is worth reading.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/09/opinion/sunday/how-russia-has-already-lost-the-war.html?hp&rref=opinion&_r=0

It explains beautifully, regardless of your views, the nature of Ukraine, above all the truth that it is not Yugoslavia, modern-day Bosnia or indeed Northern Ireland

[LazyGun]

I really have no idea how this is all going to pan out. It seems to have gone quiet, with sporadic outbursts, like the news about the missile site in the Crimea.

I am not quite sure what the next defining step is going to be. I would imagine this coming referendum in Crimea is going to be a potential action point; What happens to Putins plans then if the majority prefer to remain part of the Ukraine?

And what are the prospects for diplomacy from the West? Given the economic ties and resource dependency of europe, it is difficult to see what substantive economic or diplomatic restrictions will actually be sanctioned.

This is why i would be no good at international diplomacy :)

[ichkeria]

"What happens to Putins plans then if the majority prefer to remain part of the Ukraine?
"
That isn't going to happen!
But Crimea is just the start. The article makes it clear that the majority of Ukrainians, from east, west and centre, want nothing to do with Putin's Russia, but they are faced with an unscrupulous and amoral opponent

[jno]

I'm not sure about the authority of this. Freeland's a Canadian MP who worked in Ukraine for a while (a while ago) and has some family there. She cites a nebulous lot of people and quotes only one, an anti-corruption activist. She takes no account of the fact that Yanukovych, whatever people may think of him now, was democratically elected. I suspect the country's more divided than she claims.

I'm also not convinced by her suggestion that Ukraine is more like Czechoslovakia. The former was part of the USSR for a long time; the latter only a satellite state where, I think, people were rather readier to abandon the communist apparatus.

But then I know even less than she does; you know more yourself.

[modeller]

The bottom line is, that Putin knows we will never go to war with Russia except to defend ourselves.
In exactly the same way as we were prepared to sacrifice others in the hope of preventing the last two World Wars , so it is now, when the consequences would be far far more frightful.
Putin is keen on fishing he knows how to play the game. Put it this way would we go to war to save Bulgaria ( who is now in the EU ) should Russia invade. ? So what are the chances of us doing anything major to save the Ukraine , (who are not )if the Russians decided to invade them ?

[ichkeria]

The country is divided on political lines jno not ethnic. That is the point really. But the author points out that Putin has actually succeeded in uniting most of mainland Ukraine against him. (Crimea on the other hand is different. There he is stirring trouble where done previous existed. Reports coming in today say that the Tatars, who are going to boycott the 'referendum', are organising into self defence groups.')

[jno]

But the author points out that Putin has actually succeeded in uniting most of mainland Ukraine against him

'Claims' rather than 'points out' perhaps? As I said, i'm not sure of the authority of her statements.

If Ukraine loses Crimea, does it have any remaining sea access itself?

[ichkeria]

Sea access? Certainly. Odesa and all the Black Sea coast as well as the Azov Sea.
The reason I posted the link to the article is because I can relate to it. There is no significant support in Ukraine for being part of Russia other than in Crimea. And even there that has been limited to the residents of Sevastopol mostly.
Yanukovich's being democratically elected doesn't really count for a lot. The guy is a thug and criminal and he stood for everything bad in the country.

[LazyGun]

""What happens to Putins plans then if the majority prefer to remain part of the Ukraine?
"
That isn't going to happen"

Sorry, getting confused now, ichkeria. Certainly some of the commentary I have seen suggest that it is not a foregone conclusion that the majority of the population within the Crimea will vote to join the Russian Federation - which is the point I was trying to make. If the referendum goes the other way, and the majority vote to stay within the Ukraine - what then for Putin?

[ichkeria]

It is a foregone conclusion for lots of several reasons, the most imprtant being that it wil be rigged. No question about that.
Second, most people opposed to Russia's actions will boycott it.

It was originally planned for May 25th, same day as national elections, then moved to march 30, now March 16

The only doubt will be what sort of voting figures they decide to "award" - will they go for the probable 99% for 1% against which will look a bit silly, or will they go for something that makes it look a bit more realistic without at the same time making it seem as though there are too many oppoed. My bet will be they'll say it was about 75-80% for independence.
This whole affair has been planned. choreographed however you'd like to put it.
The Crimean Parliament was occupied by armed men about 10 days ago and in a new goverrnment sworn in, with new prime minister, effectiovely at gunpoint. The new man then did his bidding by asking Moscow for help against non-existent "threast" to the local Russian parliament. A combination of local militia, "volunteers" from differenbt parts of Russia, forces from Novorossijsk and Anapa bases then invaded surrerptitiously under cover of the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol and occupied airfields and other installations.
The peninsula is now effectivley run by armed thugs and anyone foolish enough to speak out against Russia is attacked. Ironically the military stand-off has been tense but peaceful (some families in Crimea have families in both armies!) tho there are reports of a Ukrainian Air Force border patrol being fired on with anti-aircraft.

All in all, this is no atmosphere in which to hold a referendum, even a legal one which this one is not.

[modeller]

Unfortunately no channel is free of bias. When watching RT you would think they are on another planet at times. A left wing colleague of mine on the other hand says the same about CNN.

[jno]

thanks, ichkeria.

Regardless of Yanukovych's thuggery, his election as I recall was deemed fair, and he won. Is the suggestion that many of those who voted for him will nonetheless oppose an exit by Crimea? That seems to be what Freeland's saying, but as mentioned she doesn't give any basis for the claim.

[ichkeria]

"Is the suggestion that many of those who voted for him will nonetheless oppose an exit by Crimea? That seems to be what Freeland's saying, but as mentioned she doesn't give any basis for the claim. "

Yes, because most people, regardless of their political affiliation, are loyal to the country. As you'd expect, perhaps. That is an important thing to understand. There are Russian people in Ukraine, naturally, who - in theory at least - want to "join with Russia" but they are not a significant number. Many are rather sad individuals who cling to the Soviet past, conveniently forgetting that the old Soviet Union is no more. Sort of UKIP types, E European-style perhaps :-)
If you saw the news today you'll have seen some people in Donetsk holding up a banner: "USSR: Our Motherland" (!)

[ichkeria]

... and on Yanukovich: most people voted for him not because he was "pro-Russia" (he was pro-whoever could swell his bank balance most effectively I think!) but because they didn't like the old government and wanted a change. Yanukovich's party held the governorship in Lviv, in "pro-western" West Ukraine for example.

[jno]

thanks for the answers. I'm always trying to learn.

I seem to recall the first line of the national anthem is 'Ukraine is not dead yet', which is encouraging.

[ludwig]

//.. the first line of the national anthem is 'Ukraine is not dead yet' //

Stirring stuff.

I have no idea what will happen here. I just hope there isn't bloodshed.

[ichkeria]

It also goes on to say 'our enemies melt or fade like dew in the sun'. Here's hoping :-)

[chrisosh]

For anyone interested it may be good to get some balance by reading some of the articles Here; http://globalresearch.ca/ and some of the other sites they link to.
Not everyone in the western world does or should believe the mainstream western press.
I have Ukrainian and Russian friends here and they have as many opinions about the situation as everyone else, what is clear though is that the current 'government' in Ukraine is extreme right wing and not liked by the majority any more than the Conservatives are in the UK my impression is that they are fairly evenly split.
The US with EC help has been stirring the pot for some time,(has poured 5 billion dollars into someones pocket there according to a leaked phone call by Victoria Nuland), and is in my opinion playing with fire.
At the end of the day the US is only interested in controlling the oil and gas that could flow through the Ukraine from further east.
Every other bit of US ( often with British and others support) adventurism over the last twenty years or more has shown that they don't care about the people or the future of the countries they 'help' only about what they can get out of it if anything.
I think the adventuring is American not Russian, Russia has enough on it's plate improving it's own infrastructure and economy and the Ukraine does not have enough to offer that would encourage adventurism from Putin.

[ichkeria]

The current government in Ukraine is not "extreme" right wing. That is simply a lie perpetrated by the Ruissian media.
As for "American adventurism" whose troops are currently occupying Ukraine?
It infuriates me when people in the west with their own agendas pontificate about the US etc. These are people who don;t care about the wishes of the people on the ground. Ukrainians are not puppets. They are quite capable of thinking for themselves.
As for "controlling the gas that comes through Ukraine from further east" that is so meuch nonsense, with respect.
If you think Ukraine has nothing that could interest Putin then I am afraid you fundamentally misunderstand the Russian mindset with regard to the country.

[ichkeria]

Heavens,
I've just read a bit of the stuff http://globalresearch.ca/
Not exactly "balanced" is it :-)

[modeller]

chrisosh Which is it ? You say //Ukraine is extreme right wing and not liked by the majority any more than the Conservatives are in the UK my impression is that they are fairly evenly split. //
You say the Tories are not liked by the majority and yet they were voted in as the biggest party , especially in England.
You say in the Ukraine the extreme right ( as you call them ) are not liked by the majority and then say the electorate are evenly split.
I fail to understand your logic. A bit like that balanced channel RT.
How about Putin for Pope ! That could be a vote catcher if you are right. LOL