What Wil The Conservative's Majority Be Reduced To In Newark?

[Gromit]

It is currently 16,152.

[ToraToraTora]

here's a sample of Nick's policies, sensible stuff I'm sure you'll agree:
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/nick-flying-brick-in-newark-by-election.html
I especially like the idea for fuelling EU trains!

[ichkeria]

"To be fair to UKiP, they were 4th in 2010 with less than 2,000 votes. The Conservatives polled 27,000. It was asking a lot to overturn that. "

UKIP are currently touting themselves as a major threat to the Tories in seats like this, although I agree that this particular one might have been asking too much to actually win. And indeed to be fair to them they are increasing their share of the vote from an almost negligible base.
Nonetheless, the result shows that it is not really a political earthquake underway. Even in a by-election they fell a long way short of unseating the sitting MP.

[ichkeria]

Wasn't William Hague the last Tory to win a by-election under a Tory government?

[Gromit]

Yes, Richmond 1989.

[AB Editor]

It was a good showing from the Independent, Paul Baggaley.

https://twitter.com/psbaggaley/status/474805535452442624

Possibly gaining votes from disaffected LDs? It's the sort of thing they would have campaigned on, but can't while they're part of a Gov having a crack at taking the NHS apart.