Newark By Election

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444 never mind your polls, the Labour Councillor in Newark came third.

That is reality.

[Gromit]

DrFilth,

I live in Tameside too so I know the stranglehold Labour have on the borough. Voters are put off voting Labour as well, because a Labour person always gets elected.

Your example you posted, Labour are still getting elected, but UKiP are now in second where the Conservatives were. They are taking most of their votes from Conservatives.

Manchester is not a UKiP target, and they are unlikely to get any joy at the General Election up here. They do better in the South mopping up disaffected Tories.

[DrFilth]

Gromit as the benefit cuts are affecting more and more in the north west we shall see

they just need that extra push to get them in the polling station

[Gromit]

DrFilth

I have just been looking at the Tameside results in more detail. UKiP actually succeeeded in getting two gains for Labour by taking votes from the Conservatives.

Dukinfield/Stalybridge - Labour gain from Conservative

Labour 1,194
UKIP 954
Conservative 507

Hyde Werneth - Labour gain from Conservative

Labour 1,443
Conservative 1,153
UKIP 726

[DrFilth]

i made allowances for the duckinfield lot as they are nearer to you in hyde :-)

[DrFilth]

Labour 1,194
UKIP 954

not much in it just a couple of hundred votes

[Gromit]

DrFilth

Yes, but they are both Conservative seats which have gone to Labour because UKiP have split the not Labour vote. That is the Conservatives worst fear, not that UKiP will win seats, but that they will take enough votes off them to let Labour in.

[mikey4444]

dave told the BBC today that "We have won this seat with a big majority," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "This is the first time in 25 years that the Conservative have held a by-election in government.

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444

/// AOG...Labour were never going to win, as its a safe Tory seat...not sure what point you are trying but failing to make. ///

I never said that they would, I was merely pointing out that they came third, when one would have expected the opposition party would at least come second, since you are repeatedly pointing out polls which say they are leading.

If the Tories are so unpopular and UKIP are even more unpopular, I would have thought that Labour would have done better.

[anotheoldgit]

DrFilth

/// as the benefit cuts are affecting more and more in the north west we shall see ///

Just as a matter of interest, I wonder how many of these benefit recipients really expect Labour to reinstate all the benefit cuts made by the coalition party?

[Gromit]

Have you never heard the expression 'Safe Seat'?

It is given to constituencies where the majority is so huge that the opposition is unlikely to be able to overtake them.

Newark is a safe Conservative seat and in normal circumstances this would be a foregone conclusion. But this wasn't normal because UKiP had expectations of beating the incumbant. They didn't, but they pushed Labour into third.

[DrFilth]

aog > Just as a matter of interest, I wonder how many of these benefit recipients really expect Labour to reinstate all the benefit cuts made by the coalition party? <

aog the benefit cuts were started under labour so i do not think they will be in a big rush to boost the money given out to the poor hence why more and more people i think will vote for ukip

i also do not think ukip will be in a rush to give money away but at the end of the day what would you do

vote for the part that started the cuts ?

vote for the party that increased the cuts ?

or vote for another party that you hope upsets the main 3 ?