Only a fool would write off Tory chances of winning an outright majority at the next election. Should they fail, however, Cameron goes and the contenders will be David Davis, May, Osbourne, Boris, Hammond. Davis too unpopular in the Party. May not sufficiently media friendly and also not popular in the Party. Can't see Boris leading the Opposition for five years, a dreadful task, so it will all be a bit of a mess. Of course, Cameron may have to go if Scotland votes Yes - unlikely I think.