For Sqad, And Others :::electoral Calculus 1St Sep. Update

[mikey4444]

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Labour majority down from a overall majority of 40 to 30.

[Sqad]

Thanks mikey.

I could find poll result showing the present gap between Labour and Concervatives.

[mikey4444]

Yes, the gap is narrowing but not due, in any great part, to what the Tories are doing. They were on 257 seats in August 1st and now they are on 258 !
( I presume this doesn't include the recent Clacton debacle )

The loss of 5 seats from 1st August for Labour are coming from the Libs (2) and the Nats (2). So nothing has changed really.

[Sqad]

Bottom line mikey....THAT GAP IS CLOSING.

[grumpy01]

Still a long time,in political terms ,until next May.If UKIP take Clacton some more MP's on both sides will feel inclined to test the water.

[naomi24]

Hurrah!

[ToraToraTora]

Now mikey I think if you could have persuaded your marxist union mates to back the other brother you'd be a shoe in. Too many cannot see Ed as PM material. I still think it'll be another hung parliament, possible Lib/Lab pact though it's possible the Lib dems could get wiped right out as people are not happy with them selling their souls for a slice of power. Who knows, even your old mate Nige could pick up a few seats!

[mikey4444]

As everybody, including me thought it would do Sqad ! Interesting last few months left before next May.

Grumpy...I agree that some more Tories may be inclined to fall on their swords but there is no compelling evidence that Labour MPs will follow...why should they, as it all looks reasonably rosy for them ? Even if Labour don't win an outright majority, neither does it look as if dave will either. But who is dave going to do a deal with next year ? He and Cleggie have been fighting like cats in a sack for over 4 years now....I am not even sure if they still like each other any more.

[mikey4444]

TTT...come on now...you know that I don't have any "marxist" mates ! I am
proud to be a Labour supporter, but I am not a Communist !

I think it is looking increasingly likely that a Lab/Lib pact might happen next May. And even if Farage does win the odd seat or two, it won't be significant enough to make much difference.

Its funny in a way but Cleggie and Farage share the same problem really...they are subject to the classic three party squeeze, in that in our First-past-the-Post system, third Parties just can't seem to get off the ground. Look at these latest results from EC...Lib votes down from 57 actual in 2010 to 19 predicted, and still none for UKIP ( bar perhaps bloody Clacton !

[THECORBYLOON]

MIKEY, the SNP is predicted to gain five seats at the next election.

[mikey4444]

Forgot to add TTT...Ed might not be terribly popular with you but all the Polls still predict that Labour will gets more seats. His bro is really not significant any more. Can't remember the last time I heard much from him.

Apparently International Rescue is keeping him busy. I wonder if he is the replacement for Brains, or perhaps Virgil ! Like the puppets, he does have rather an odd haircut, although the strings are much harder to see !

[mikey4444]

If that is true Corby, than its good news in a coalition, as the SNP don't like Labour overly much, but they really hate the Tories !

[THECORBYLOON]

Labour is set to have the same number of seats and the Tories an extra two.

[mikey4444]

Not according to the Electoral Calculus link they aren't Corby !

Labour are predicted to get 340 seats, up 82 from 2010, and the Tories to get 258, down 49 from 2010. Even if Labour don't achieve an outright majority in 2015, this represents tremendous progress in just over 4 years.

I have asked this question before but if Ed is so terrible and dave is so wonderful, why is the situation above happening ?

[THECORBYLOON]

Sorry, I was on about Scots seats still.

[Peter Pedant]

is there any research to show that doing these polls,
has any effect of bearing on the outcome.


or is it a case of it is significant because I say it is

[Sqad]

\\\\I have asked this question before but if Ed is so terrible and dave is so wonderful, why is the situation above happening ?\\\

mikey !mikey! mikey!

That question is just silly and doesn't do your intellect justice.

Not ALL people think that Prime Minister Cameron is wonderful and not ALL people think that Edward Milliband is terrible.

[mikey4444]

Sqad, Sqad, Sqad ! ...I know ! .......I asked the question out a sense of devilment ! But it annoys me a bit when Ed isn't given the praise he is due, in improving Labour's position since 2010.

Corby...sorry...didn't realise that it was the Scotties that were referring to !

PP...to answer your question, I wouldn't have thought so, no.

So few people are aware of the Polls, especially this EC one, that I can't see it making more than a small amount of difference. If we get closer to the General Election next May, and one Party or other is still ahead in the Poll, it can, however, have the effect in supporters of that Party not bothering to vote at all, as happened in 1992, because they think its a done deal.

Lots of time to go !

[ToraToraTora]

I think Kinnochio's "Victory" party the day before the election cost him that one mikey, the public don't like being taken for granted.

[wolf63]

I know nothing of politics but the fact that Ed appears to be a creepy and strange alien will surely have some impact on people voting for Labour.

[mikey4444]

Wolf...name-calling doesn't appear to have put many people off, if Labours position in the Polls has been so improved has it ? Perhaps there are enough adult minded people in Britain after all !