Food & Drink0 min ago
How Will This Effect The General Election?
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A lot of Scotts feel betrayed by Labour following the referendum. Looks like ED may well struggle north of the border.
A lot of Scotts feel betrayed by Labour following the referendum. Looks like ED may well struggle north of the border.
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I've said already that Labour are as dead up here as the tories, SNP rule in Scotland now because the main parties have turned their backs on them. You can say the same about everywhere outwith the southeast, it's the only bit that matters to them so other parties and ideologies take over in other areas!! Serves them right, them and the tories
On the day after the referendum, when Cameron addressed the nation from Downing Street, he suddenly decided to tie the "vow" he and the other two main party leaders had made to the Scots to EVEL. English Votes for English Laws had, of course, nothing whatever to do with the Scottish referendum. What made his comments worse was the fact that he added that the vow had to progress (quote) "in tandem with and at the same pace as" the EVEL matter.
Now, please note that I am not saying that EVEL is irrelevant; quite the reverse, I'm sure it is of great importance to English people. However, there was no call for it to be unified with the Scottish matter. What, for instance, will happen to the so-called "vow", if the EVEL debate develops into a decade-long dispute?
The connection of the above to the upcoming election is the fact that many Scots have decided Cameron effectively 'lied' to them. Accordingly, the Tories might suffer just as much as Labour north of the border. Of course, they have only one MP there as it is, but a total whitewash is a real possibility.
Now, please note that I am not saying that EVEL is irrelevant; quite the reverse, I'm sure it is of great importance to English people. However, there was no call for it to be unified with the Scottish matter. What, for instance, will happen to the so-called "vow", if the EVEL debate develops into a decade-long dispute?
The connection of the above to the upcoming election is the fact that many Scots have decided Cameron effectively 'lied' to them. Accordingly, the Tories might suffer just as much as Labour north of the border. Of course, they have only one MP there as it is, but a total whitewash is a real possibility.
Labour are expected to LOSE 11 seats in Scotland
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CON +3
LAB -11
LIB -9
UKIP 0
NAT +17
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CON +3
LAB -11
LIB -9
UKIP 0
NAT +17
Not checked the figures, but if as might be expected there's a swing from Labour to the SNP then the Tories might benefit from being in second place. In 2010 the Conservatives picked up about 17% of the vote. If that's projected to hold in 2015, then the arcane FPTP system could well lead to the Tories picking up seats.
// The connection of the above to the upcoming election is the fact that many Scots have decided Cameron effectively 'lied' to them. //
lol. The Tories will be gutted that people north of the border feel that way. They stand to lose ..err... 1 seat.
The political landscape is changing. Labour can't rely on any of it's Scottish seats any more because of the SNP, and the Tories stand to lose a load of votes to UKIP. Disillusioned libdems will most likely vote Labour, but there's alot of disillusioned Labour voters turning to UKIP as well.
It makes for interesting times.
lol. The Tories will be gutted that people north of the border feel that way. They stand to lose ..err... 1 seat.
The political landscape is changing. Labour can't rely on any of it's Scottish seats any more because of the SNP, and the Tories stand to lose a load of votes to UKIP. Disillusioned libdems will most likely vote Labour, but there's alot of disillusioned Labour voters turning to UKIP as well.
It makes for interesting times.
I make no apology for copying this from my reply to AOG's recent post, on almost the same subject ::
According to electoralcalculus, south of the Border, the Tories stand to lose more votes, although not necessarily many seats to UKIP, than Labour. But with our first-past-the-post system, UKIP may not end up with many seats at all. They may come third or even second in a lot of constituencies, but coming first is the only thing that matters in General Election.
But it would seem, from the same source, that the SNP is likely to gain about the same number seats from Labour, as it will from the LibDems...about 10 from each. But lets not over-egg the SNP pudding...the YES vote only managed about 38% of the available votes that could be cast, so a largish minority. Not insignificant but hardly a king-maker position either.
Overall, my best estimate is that UKIP will just make a Labour victory more certain than not, as Labour is still consistently ahead of the Tories in the Polls ::::
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According to electoralcalculus, south of the Border, the Tories stand to lose more votes, although not necessarily many seats to UKIP, than Labour. But with our first-past-the-post system, UKIP may not end up with many seats at all. They may come third or even second in a lot of constituencies, but coming first is the only thing that matters in General Election.
But it would seem, from the same source, that the SNP is likely to gain about the same number seats from Labour, as it will from the LibDems...about 10 from each. But lets not over-egg the SNP pudding...the YES vote only managed about 38% of the available votes that could be cast, so a largish minority. Not insignificant but hardly a king-maker position either.
Overall, my best estimate is that UKIP will just make a Labour victory more certain than not, as Labour is still consistently ahead of the Tories in the Polls ::::
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Ludwig, the last sentence in my earlier response above actually said the Tories had only one seat to lose in Scotland, so I'm none too sure what you're lolling at. Never mind, just you lol at what you want to lol at, but I still think that being utterly blanked - which I also mentioned earlier - is surely worse than managing to go on clinging to a cliff-edge by one's fingertips!
Incidentally, LOL and its derivatives are virtually invariably untruths. Some say it means 'Laugh out loud' which is an instruction and thus nonsensical; one cannot TELL people to laugh. Others claim it means 'LaughING out loud', ie it is something the writer claims to be doing at the moment of writing. Also very unlikely to be true. Sure, he/she might have laughed out loud on initially reading the material under discussion but, in the midst of a written response, the notion that the laughter continues is rather absurd.
Incidentally, LOL and its derivatives are virtually invariably untruths. Some say it means 'Laugh out loud' which is an instruction and thus nonsensical; one cannot TELL people to laugh. Others claim it means 'LaughING out loud', ie it is something the writer claims to be doing at the moment of writing. Also very unlikely to be true. Sure, he/she might have laughed out loud on initially reading the material under discussion but, in the midst of a written response, the notion that the laughter continues is rather absurd.
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