Chili...UKIP may very well win this by-election but as its the sitting MP who has turned traitor, its not so surprising is it ? If this election was brought about by the death of the sitting MP, how would UKIP fair then ?
The Tories won in 2010 with a majority of very nearly 10,000. UKIP didn't even put a candidate up ! So surely the fact that the sitting MP is standing must account for the large possibility of UKIP winning, not UKIP itself.
This by-election will not answer the question of whether "UKIP is going to break the mould of British politics" which has often been said these last few months. Today's Poll is an entirely artificial situation, brought about by devilment. Next May will decide that question once and for all, and my own personal view is that UKIP will be just another also-ran.
By the way, if Farage really thinks he and his Party are the saviours of 1950's Great Britain, why is HE not standing somewhere ?