Rochester And Strood By Election Prediction

[Gromit]

I don't think it will be close

1. UKIP 14,900
2. Conservative 9,800
3. Labour 5,800
4. Greens 1,600
5. LibDems 850
6. Others 1050

Do you agree? Disagree?

[BlackadderV]

Labour is only ahead in the polls because of the Tory/UKIP split. Add the Tory/UKIP support together and Labour are massively behind.

[mikey4444]

Tory/UKIP "together" ?....Really ? ....have I missed this ?

If they are such keen pals, why are they at each others throats today in Rochester ? Every seat lost to UKIP from the Tories just brings a Labour victory closer. Afterall, its not Labour that UKIP have been targeting so far.

If UKIP wins today, they will have a sum total of 2 seats in Westminster, 1 more than the Greens, and both at the Tories expense !

Get real...its the Tories that are on the defensive here, not Labour.

[ChillDoubt]

Chili..........but Labour is still ahead in the Polls ! I wonder how far behind the Tories will be tomorrow morning, after they have lost a safe seat in RoChester.
-------------
So you will concur with a poll when it supposedly has Labour ahead but will be sceptical about another that has UKIP 15 points ahead?!
So glad I checked!

[youngmafbog]

You expected different Chili?

Pretty much on the nail there Gromit I reckon, but now politucs is getting more interesting who knows.

[mikey4444]

Chili...UKIP may or may not be ahead in Rochester, but when it comes to the national picture, they are still lagging behind in a very poor 3rd or even 4th place.

Even if UKIP win today, that situation is unlikely to change :::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Now I must go to work or I will be sacked ! ! !

[Peterrobbins]

UKIP vote will e higher

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444

/// If UKIP DO win today, then Tories will have 2 less of a majority in Westminster. This is what is making it difficult for dave to sleep at night. ///

How are you sleeping at night Mikey?

[Gromit]

Dave might be sleeping badly because when UKIP win today, Farage has at least 4 other Tory MPs who are likely to defect. Farage has hinted at 2 or three by elections before the election. Losing those would be bad karma before a General Election.

[scooping]

UKIP win by 11 per cent

[Gromit]

// he electorate can safely deliver a bloody nose without being landed long-term with a complete wonk for an MP. //

He has been their MP for 4 years and looks like being re-elected. If he was a wonk, I suspect he would be dumped today.

[Gromit]

// Apart from the fact that you have others with more votes than the Libs, yes. //

There are 8 other cadidates than the ones I have listed, including a strong Independent one. If anything, my 'Others' prediction is slightly low.

[ChillDoubt]

Mikey must be shaking like a leaf at the prospect of a Labour MP defecting.
That would be catastrophic and surely signal the end of Ed's leadership.
Just one could change the political landscape IMHO.

[jourdain2]

My best guess is that you're right, Gromit - except that I think that the Libs. may do even worse than 850. It's all very interesting. Real results awaited with bated breath!

[Gromit]

Chill

Kate Hoey was rumoured to be ready to defect to UKIP.
I don't think that would be the end of Ed's leadership, just like losing 2 seats to UKIP isn't the end of Cameron's. But it would be bad for the Labour Party, especially if UKIP went on to win the resulting by election.

[Buffalo-Bill]

Tories or Closet Tories

[jno]

they say they're expecting two more Tory defectors

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless

(ones who are too cowardly to go until they've let Reckless test the water)

[Gromit]

Jno,

They have 6. They plan to create by elections up to March by defecting a couple at a time. They are not waiting for todays result to decide to defect, they already have but not publicly. They are defecting in dribs to concentrate on one election at a time, and to maximise the impact.