The Youth Of Today

[ichkeria]

An interesting poll in today's Observer of first time voters in the 17-22 age bracket has the following results:
Labour 41%
Conservative 26
Green 19
Lib Dem 6
UKIP 3
SNP 2
Other 1
PC 0
BNP 0

48% think immigration is good for Britain versus 31 who don't
65% want to keep the HRA
65% want to keep the monarchy
59% think the govt is right to reduce the deficit by reducing spending

Farage is the least popular leader, with a minus 51% approval rating, followed by Clegg

Let's get these people out to the polls in May!!

[jim360]

I've never voted Labour (out of the one vote I've had so far) and I'm probably not going to in 2015 either. Believe I'm indoctrinated all you like, it ain't true, and it isn't for most people either. It's a small-world view that children get indoctrinated at school -- they're far more likely to be influenced by the internet these days. People overestimate severely the role teachers have in young people's lives, or at least in their politics.

[ichkeria]

///They prefers the alternative politics of the Greens///
Until they have to pay the leccy bill.

Although presumably having voted green they'll be using a lot less electricity :-)

[Svejk]

Lip service, ichi, lip service. (like most greens)

[BlackadderV]

I wonder if polls were conducted exclusively in Scotland and Wales the figures for SNP and PC would be different.

[ichkeria]

Presumably they would, but as the general election is to be fought UK wide, some bright spark must have had the idea of weighting the results (on a sample of 2,500 respondents) nationally.
Of course given less than half this age group voted at the last election it doesn't necessarily have major significance for the election, unless the parties can get the younger folk out to vote. As UKIP are virtually non-existent, maybe in their case they should not bother. I see Mr Carswell is urging his party to become more inclusive in the Mail on Sunday today. They will need to be, or be seen to be, or Mr Farrago may not be smirking quite so broadly soon

[Gromit]

// 17-22 year olds have recently undergone 12 years or so of education, and many of them will have passed through the State system. Of course the teachers' unions (and by implication most of their members) believe that Mrs Thatcher was the Great Satan and are still giving the impression to their charges... //

It is a long time since I have read such utter nonsense as the above. Clearly on another planet. Thatcher finished 25 years ago, are you really that obsessed that you think she is being maligned in schools now. Most teachers around today qualified after her reign was over. The idea that all teachers are left wing Guardian readers is twaddle, and anyone belueving such bilge clearly does not have any contact with teachers.

[SirOracle]

Blackadder If a similar poll had been conducted in Scotland I think that it would show something like;

SNP 80%

Labour 15%

The other parties would share the 5% balance and can be discounted.

I cannot comment on the Welsh position.

[Svejk]

The Welsh Position? Lol.

[BlackadderV]

I think 80% for SNP is a wee bit too high, but it would certainly be more than 2%.

[Svejk]

I think some of you are going to get a shock at the election.
90% of the newspaper comments are from UKIP supporters. All newspapers, including the Guardian.

[SirOracle]

OK Blackadder. I will revise my figure to 78% from 80% !! ;-)

[jim360]

I think UKIP supporters are going to be in for an even bigger shock when they turn up in droves and still barely get any MPs. They might be lucky to get a dozen.

[ichkeria]

Oh rubbish that's just AOG working overtime lol

[ichkeria]

I reckon UKIP will have one MP after the next election: assuming, that is, an increasingly disgruntled looking Mr Carswell doesn't jump ship :-)

[Svejk]

Well if the Labour Liars or the, seemingly, ineffectual Tories get in, I'd be confident of a UKIP o/a majority in 2020.

[SirOracle]

Yes likely to jump ship but where can he go now ?

[jim360]

The problem UKIP faces is that they aren't Labour or the Conservatives. In General elections only the established parties really stand a chance. The SDP-Libs in 1983 never stood a chance either, despite a surge in support -- there's just no way into the current system for new parties to gain a decent foothold.

I'm looking forward to 2015, in some sense. If Ukip still surge we could see them struggle to gain seats, and then the outcry, and calls for electoral reform, could be at last unanswerable.

[Gromit]

Westminster seats have been gerrymandered for decades to favour one of the two main parties. The problem with UKIP's support is that it is thinly evenly spread among the constituencies, like the aged population (who are one and the same). The result will be, they might get 25% of the votes, but not 20% of the seats. They will be doing well to get half a dozen.

[BlackadderV]

The SDP-Libs were not an alliance at the time of the '83 election. They might have done better otherwise.

[ichkeria]

The story of the SDP in 1983 is a harsh lesson for small parties: they lost most if not all of the seats they had won at by-elections leading up to the general election. UKIP have an additional problem In that they are very divisive and they going to get hit really hard by the sheer lunacy of fielding 650 candidates, not to mention the sheer lunacy of some of those 650 :-)