The Next Government

[AB Editor]

 

This poll is closed.

Which is the following is the most likely outcome of the UK general election?

• Tory Minority Government - 16 votes
• 23%
• Labour Minority Goverment - 14 votes
• 20%
• Tory Majority - 12 votes
• 17%
• UKIP/Tory Coalition - 7 votes
• 10%
• Labour Majority - 6 votes
• 9%
• Lib Dem/Tory Coalition - 6 votes
• 9%
• SNP/Labour Coalition - 6 votes
• 9%
• Lib Dem/Labour Coalition - 3 votes
• 4%

See final stats

Stats until: 12:11 Thu 21st Nov 2024 (Refreshed every 5 minutes)

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[sandyRoe]

The DUP are promoting themselves here in NI as potential kingmakers. It would be a sad day if they ever got to hold the balance of power.
I believe it's time for a change, no more coalitions, no more Tories. Labour look the obvious choice.

[AB Editor]

I love an election - any place, any time, I'll be watching!

So, what do we think the outcome of the upcoming election might be? I think I've covered most options there.

I've commited my usual sin of ignoring NI, sorry!

Also, do we think think that the election issue that decide it this year will be as stated here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-do-u-k-voters-want-and-what-are-the-parties-promising/

Five Thirty Eight suggests that the top three are:

1. Immigration
2. NHS
3. Economy

A fair comment?

Also, is this UKIPs year?

AND, is it all over for the Lib Dems?

[AB Editor]

And they could be Sandy.

I've not actually had much of an issue with the current coalition. Quite like a government of compromise.

[berniecuddles]

Next UK General Election - Most Seats Betting Odds
6 months ago labour 2/7 tory 5/2
today tory 2/5 labour 2/1
rather a change around !

[jno]

Tory voters seem not to like compromise (evidence: their anger at Clegg in AB posts); they want naked power. LibDems don't mind and as far as I can tell Labour voters would sooner have some power in a coalition than no power at all.

[mikey4444]

Ed...you missed out on UKIP anything !

[Jackdaw33]

I do not believe there will be any form of coalition next time. If neither of the big two win an outright majority then it will be a minority government of one or the other.

[mikey4444]

Actually, paging down I see that you haven't forgotten ...apologies !

[youngmafbog]

I reckon you are a closet UKIP supporter Mickey, you are obsessed by them !

[woofgang]

Along with Bill Clinton, I would say "Its the economy, Stupid" If the economy was strong and people felt that they had a fair slice of the pie, they wouldn't care about immigration. If the economy could stand large injections of cash into the NHS then the needed (much needed, I have worked there...) reforms could happen without their being linked to the need to save money. I think that this would make them more acceptable to the general public and staff could be paid what they are worth.

[AB Editor]

You worried me there Mikey!

A very even poll at the moment - are we suprisingly split? Or does it just say we think that a single party majority or minority will turn up?

[anneasquith]

would labour/tory coalition ever be considered / possible ?

[Jackdaw33]

No, it would split the Labour party as it did in 1931.

[gl556tr]

I recently saw two readers' letters in a national newspaper. _*_The first had been asked by his Conservative MP to complete a survey by choosing THREE issues of the 18 listed that most concern them as a family, and that are most important to the country. NO mention of the defence of the country was listed. As he asked: "Why is the Conservative Party air-brushing out of its electioneering the fundamental duty of defending us?" _*_The second stated that the police force in England and Wales is now bigger than the British Army, concluding with "God help us". Neither the Conservative nor the Labour are any use governing UK Ltd. Why not have a three-party coalition? It often works splendidly in Germany.

[AB Editor]

Is defence a big issue for the averge person in the UK?


Apparently it's likely to be a draw again: http://electionforecast.co.uk/

[Gromit]

As usual, you have missed the 'Non of the above' option.

I think it will be a Labour/SNP coalition.

But it could be a 3 part anti-Tory coalition with the Labour/SNP/LibDems ganging up to keep the Tories out who are the party with the most seats but a tiny minority.

[ichkeria]

There will not be a Labour SNP coalition. That has been ruled out. Neither of the main parties will touch Salmond and co in the Commons with a bargepole after his crass remarks.
Assuming no party has an overall majority of seats, which may yet be a dangerous assumption, the Lib Dems will probably, again, hold the key. They're likely still to be the third largest national party: in fact they will be. Just depends how many seats they have, and whether they would want to do it again. My bet would be a minority Tory or Labour administration, but without knowing the exact numbers of seats involved it is very difficult to say. If Labour can get first time voters out, and they don't all go Green (which is a distinct possibility) then Miliband could yet do it

[mikey4444]

I am going to stick me head out here !

My prediction that Labour will have the most seats, so will called to Buck House for High Tea. Betty will ask Ed if he can form a government and he will answer " Well, yes, Marm ...I think I can !"

So off he will go and try. He will talk with Cleggie and Wee Alex and come to the conclusion that its worth trying. And they will try.

I am not comfortable predicting much further in the summer of 2015, but one thing is for sure........its going to be a hell of a ride !

The Chinese have a saying ( I think ! ) ....May you live in interesting times !

[ladybirder]

I hope you're wrong Mikey cos you'll be unliveable with if you're right;-)

[mikey4444]

Ladybirder....I shall try to be magnanimous in my triumph ! (tic)