Election Predictions

[AB Editor]

Morning!

fivethirtyeight has their UK election prediction interactive up - you can see it here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

They have a habit of getting it right.

I'm somewhat worried about the labour and SNP growth they predicted, that coalition seems a little too obvious?

[Retrochic]

Very Interesting that in quite a lot of constituencies UKIP is third,closely behind either the Cons or Labs.

[AB Editor]

I'd like to see their data as a spreadsheet really Retro - that way we could work out where there is a "meaningful" third party, i.e. when the third party has 15% of the vote maybe?

UKIP appear to have support, and it could be very damaging for the Tories if they skim 10% off the right wing vote.

[Peter Pedant]

Looks OK
I like the decently wide confidence intervals ( wobble bars )

the wobble on a poll of a thousand voters is still surprisingly large plus or minus three I think

If they were antibiotics or soap powder - you would have to say
I am sorry there is no difference shown between the top two ....

piddy it is who gets to govern us for the next five years ....

[mikey4444]

Ed...Electoral Calculus sees it slightly differently, and was the most accurate predictor in 2010 :::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

They both agree on the SNP and UKIP however ( UKIP 1 seat ! )

I myself have some doubts that the SNP will take that many seats away from Labour, although they will inevitably take a lot. But as the Tory representation is almost non-existent in Scotland, if Labour end up doing better than expected against the SNP, it puts Labour ahead with most seats.

[Gromit]

// They have a habit of getting it right. //

Er, they have only ever predicted one British General Election, 2010, and nearly everyone else predicted a hung parliament too. They were no more accurate than the conventional pollsters.

[Retrochic]

Mikey -do you fancy a sneaky bet on UKIP -for every seat they achieve over the 1 you predict you give £1 to the charity of your choice? ;-)

[Gromit]

Mikey,
The SNP are predicted to take a lot of LibDem seats in Scotland, meaning it is less likely they will be able to prop up a minority Conservative Government for a second time. Every cloud etc.

[mikey4444]

Retrochic...I am predicting nothing of the kind ! Most of the Pollsters are saying the same thing...that UKIP will be a damp squib.

[Retrochic]

Then its a sure fire bet Mikey! I'll match you £ for £ lol!

[Retrochic]

If Nichola 'mary doll' Sturgeon forms a coalition I'll seriously think about moving back to Canada.

[mushroom25]

if it is correct, it shows that even if labour/SNP form a full coalition (anything less wouldn't entitle Ed to look at forming a government), they cannot get a working majority any more than a Tory/LibDem/DUP coalition could, although they'd be less seats shy. would that give them "first dibs" over Dave?

[grumpy01]

In our local paper, which is issued on a Wednesday,each of our five candidates were asked who they would vote for of the other candidates if they weren't standing themselves.Four of the candidates said which of the others they would vote for and why but our MP from the last parliament said he would only vote for himself based on the governments record.Rather a high opinion of himself i think.Given his problems with HOOF and his employment of a cleaner without proper immigration documentation I think he may be looking over his shoulder come May 7th.

[mikey4444]

I agree Gromit ! Whatever the SNP ends up doing, its bad news for the Tories.

Nobody seems to be addressing the central point about the Tories and Scotland...they are a complete non-entity. They have only managed to get one seat, in the years after the Labour landslide of 1997, when they had none whatsoever. For a party that used to be known as a One Nation party, this inability to attract support north of the Border should be worrying them.
In 1992, even John Major managed to get 11 Scottish MP's.

Here in Wales, where the Tories are widely despised, they now have 3 seats. I know it pathetic but at least its something !

So why are they so hated in Scotland ?

[grumpy01]

If the SNP could win one seat in Scotland I hope its Danny Alexander's.Everytime I see his smug features on my T.V. the screen is in danger.

[Jackdaw33]

The Tories have 8 seats in Wales, 20%. Quite respectable for a Labour heartland.

[mikey4444]

Quite right Jack...typo from me earlier...it is indeed 8, out of a possible 40.
My mistake !

So if the Tories can do that in a part of the UK where they are not loved, why can't they do that in Scotland ?

[Gromit]

Mushroom

I have said a few times on here that a two party coalition may not be enough and that a Labour/SNP/LibDem coalition may be the only via option to reach a 326 majority.

[mikey4444]

I am going to predict that there will be a second 2015 Election, later on !

Its going to be 1974 all over again, this time with a tartan frill around the edge !

[grumpy01]

Hopefully there will be a minimal amount of Lib Dems in the next parliament and hopefully this rump will not include Clegg and Alexander.

[Svejk]

Anyone who thinks UKIP will only get 1 seat is either seriously deluded or, more likely, trying to delude the public.