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Why Were So Many People Afraid To Admit That They Wanted To Vote Tory?
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/// There is something very ugly going on in our public discourse – and the Left-wing activists (and their media hangers-on) might ask themselves what they think they are accomplishing when they bully and ridicule that vast tranch of the country into being so secretive about their vote. What they have managed to achieve in this election is massive self-delusion. ///
/// There is something very ugly going on in our public discourse – and the Left-wing activists (and their media hangers-on) might ask themselves what they think they are accomplishing when they bully and ridicule that vast tranch of the country into being so secretive about their vote. What they have managed to achieve in this election is massive self-delusion. ///
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I do not believe the shy Tory theory.
Most polling is done on the phone or internet where there is no direct contact with the person polling. I do not believe so many people would be pathetic enough to not say they were voting Conservative to stranger because of fear or stigma from that admission. If that was a true reason, surely more people would not admit to voting UKIP, but their polling prediction was close to the poll figure.
I believe a lot of people were undecided for a long time and made their mind up at the last minute. The LibDems lost 4.5million voters from 2010. I believe many of those were unsure which way to jump until they were in the polling both.
The perceived wisdom when the Tories failed to get a majority in 2010 was that the people who moved from Labour, couldn't bring themselves to go the whole hog, and voted LibDem.
5 years later there was an assumption that the majority of those who defected to the LibDems 5 years ago would return to Labour. But they didn't. The Conservatives took more than twice the number of seats from the LibDems as Labour did. And the SNP took 10 seats from the LibDems which Labour might have expected to change their way.
Most polling is done on the phone or internet where there is no direct contact with the person polling. I do not believe so many people would be pathetic enough to not say they were voting Conservative to stranger because of fear or stigma from that admission. If that was a true reason, surely more people would not admit to voting UKIP, but their polling prediction was close to the poll figure.
I believe a lot of people were undecided for a long time and made their mind up at the last minute. The LibDems lost 4.5million voters from 2010. I believe many of those were unsure which way to jump until they were in the polling both.
The perceived wisdom when the Tories failed to get a majority in 2010 was that the people who moved from Labour, couldn't bring themselves to go the whole hog, and voted LibDem.
5 years later there was an assumption that the majority of those who defected to the LibDems 5 years ago would return to Labour. But they didn't. The Conservatives took more than twice the number of seats from the LibDems as Labour did. And the SNP took 10 seats from the LibDems which Labour might have expected to change their way.
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I think the difference is that Labour supporters wear their allegiance on their sleeve, and often the most affluent Labour supporters are the most vociferous . Maybe Conservative voters are just that -conservative with a small C and 'mind your own business' or 'no comment' is deemed the most suitable reply to questions on Political convictions.
It's not exactly a massive self-delusion. The effective swing between predicted and actual result was only about 3% of voters. Even that swing was highly significant, with quite a few marginals that were predicted to fall to Labour staying with the Tories, and a few Lib/ Con marginals going to the Tories also.
There's also the mistake of assuming that because people vote for a party then it follows that they wanted to. Often more important in people's minds is wanting a particular candidate not to win and so voting against him. It's entirely plausible that some level of anti-SNP/ Lab coalition tactical voting went on, enough to swing a few seats that would otherwise have gone to Labour. I don't think this is entirely unreasonable, and probably explains the polling error as well. Not entirely down to shy Tories, but also down to the wavering voters fearful of SNP influence and buying Cameron's assertion that the best way to shut out the SNP was a Tory majority. It seems that voters listened; we'll now see if he was right in saying this.
There's also the mistake of assuming that because people vote for a party then it follows that they wanted to. Often more important in people's minds is wanting a particular candidate not to win and so voting against him. It's entirely plausible that some level of anti-SNP/ Lab coalition tactical voting went on, enough to swing a few seats that would otherwise have gone to Labour. I don't think this is entirely unreasonable, and probably explains the polling error as well. Not entirely down to shy Tories, but also down to the wavering voters fearful of SNP influence and buying Cameron's assertion that the best way to shut out the SNP was a Tory majority. It seems that voters listened; we'll now see if he was right in saying this.
I think that's perfectly true.
And it's very telling that the same cannot be said the other way round. Nobody voting Labour (or SNP) is shy to say so. Most socialist leaning folk are "proud" to be so and let anybody who is interested know that fact. It's as if admitting to leaning to the right of centre is somehow a criminal offence in the UK.
So it is with wealth. Creating or earning decent money is frowned upon here. Anybody who is remotely successful through their own endeavours is seen to be among the filthy rich and ripe for taxing even more excesssively than they already are.
I suppose the two go hand in hand. Successsful people usually have a few bob, would like to hold on to as much of it as is reasonable, and see a right of centre government as being best able to deliver that aspiration.
And it's very telling that the same cannot be said the other way round. Nobody voting Labour (or SNP) is shy to say so. Most socialist leaning folk are "proud" to be so and let anybody who is interested know that fact. It's as if admitting to leaning to the right of centre is somehow a criminal offence in the UK.
So it is with wealth. Creating or earning decent money is frowned upon here. Anybody who is remotely successful through their own endeavours is seen to be among the filthy rich and ripe for taxing even more excesssively than they already are.
I suppose the two go hand in hand. Successsful people usually have a few bob, would like to hold on to as much of it as is reasonable, and see a right of centre government as being best able to deliver that aspiration.
// In a group many will just not admit they are tories for fear of negative remarks from the left. //
I just do not believe that.
They may have some other reason for not revealing their views, but fear that someone from the left might frown upon them is not it. And I suspect that geography might play a part. It would be much easier for someone in the South to say they are Conservative than someone in the North. But the shy Conservative theory seems to imply it is a nationwide phenomenon.
I just do not believe that.
They may have some other reason for not revealing their views, but fear that someone from the left might frown upon them is not it. And I suspect that geography might play a part. It would be much easier for someone in the South to say they are Conservative than someone in the North. But the shy Conservative theory seems to imply it is a nationwide phenomenon.
Nothing to do with "Intimidation" by lefties for heaven's sake.
Nor I suspect a lot to do with people being "ashamed to admit" they are Tories
Probably a lot more to do with the fact that the Tories are the party you vote for at the last minute, after all the pre-polling is done. It's seen as a "safe" late compromise for the undecideds or ditherers (or backsliders :-) )
If it was a case of being ashamed or intimidated then the exit poll would have given the same result as the earlier polls, which it emphatically did not of course.
Nor I suspect a lot to do with people being "ashamed to admit" they are Tories
Probably a lot more to do with the fact that the Tories are the party you vote for at the last minute, after all the pre-polling is done. It's seen as a "safe" late compromise for the undecideds or ditherers (or backsliders :-) )
If it was a case of being ashamed or intimidated then the exit poll would have given the same result as the earlier polls, which it emphatically did not of course.
New Judge,
I disagree.
The British people greatly admire people who are successful and are wealthy from their creative or entrepreneurial skills. Branson, Dyson, Sugar, Bamford have a good public image because of their success, not inspite of it.
They frown on highly paid Civil servants, Lawyers, Politicians, bankers who they perceive has not justifying the public money paid to them.
I disagree.
The British people greatly admire people who are successful and are wealthy from their creative or entrepreneurial skills. Branson, Dyson, Sugar, Bamford have a good public image because of their success, not inspite of it.
They frown on highly paid Civil servants, Lawyers, Politicians, bankers who they perceive has not justifying the public money paid to them.
"It's entirely plausible that some level of anti-SNP/ Lab coalition tactical voting went on, enough to swing a few seats that would otherwise have gone to Labour. I don't think this is entirely unreasonable, and probably explains the polling error as well."
Yep I think there's a lot in that: in the neighbouring constituence to ours, a LibDemTory marginal, the LibDems were well ahead in pre-polling, but there was a huge campaign by Tory central office (NOT the local candidate, note), bombarding constituents with scare mongering literature about Labour and the SNP. And I am sure that was happening in other marginals.
This must have influenced a lot of "undecideds", esp as there was no UKIP vote to speak of to milk
Yep I think there's a lot in that: in the neighbouring constituence to ours, a LibDemTory marginal, the LibDems were well ahead in pre-polling, but there was a huge campaign by Tory central office (NOT the local candidate, note), bombarding constituents with scare mongering literature about Labour and the SNP. And I am sure that was happening in other marginals.
This must have influenced a lot of "undecideds", esp as there was no UKIP vote to speak of to milk
.
One of my big light bulb moments was when my father scraped off his " Free Rhodesia " sticker off the car window 1968 when he went to London as he was afraid the windows would be smashed by those Who Disagreed. He who had defied the Nazis and at one point the gestapo
we had been brought up if we believed something to say we believed it.
[ To tell the truth and shame the devil - blah blah blah and all that crap ]
Both Arthur Scargill and Mrs T share the same honour of being voted the most poopular and the most loathed public figure - in the same poll !
I wonder if it were the same voters as well
One of my big light bulb moments was when my father scraped off his " Free Rhodesia " sticker off the car window 1968 when he went to London as he was afraid the windows would be smashed by those Who Disagreed. He who had defied the Nazis and at one point the gestapo
we had been brought up if we believed something to say we believed it.
[ To tell the truth and shame the devil - blah blah blah and all that crap ]
Both Arthur Scargill and Mrs T share the same honour of being voted the most poopular and the most loathed public figure - in the same poll !
I wonder if it were the same voters as well
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