Interesting By-Election Coming Up In Cumbria After Xmas

[mikey4444]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics

I wonder if Nigel Farage will have his 8th go at getting into Parliament ?

After all, didn't the new UKIP Leader say that they were going to target traditional Labour constituencies ?

Reed is in a traditional Labour seat but he only has a small majority....2564.

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1528980.html

[ichkeria]

Hasn't Farage quit politics to become a fulltime pain in the ** :-)

It is an interesting by-election though.
Shame about Jamie Reed. Another decent Labour politician quits

[mikey4444]

Thanks TTT....I hadn't noticed the earlier thread. Great minds think alike it would seem and I'm not even in Mensa !

[ToraToraTora]

Have a go at the test mikey!

[mikey4444]

I know my limitations TTT ! Being reasonably brainy, is good enough for me.

( Secondary modern school boy ! )

[Gromit]

UKIP have a new leader. If anyone contests this by-election, it will be him not Farage.

[mikey4444]

Gromit....whoever it is, they will fail, according to precedents set in past Elections....even the BNP got more than UKIP in 2010 !

[ichkeria]

The conservatives probably start as favourites here. With Brexit seemingly the main issue it could be hard for Labour to hold on and I'd be amazed if ukip made an impression

[lindapalmara]

It's also a seat which voted to Leave the EU by a big margin. It UKIP can get it together....... Who knows?!!!

[Gromit]

It might be closer than you think Mikey.

UKIP did indeed get less than 1000 votes in 2010, but they improved that to 6,000 in 2015.Labour lost 3,000 votes between 2010 and 2015.

Also, two thirds of voters in Copeland, Cumbria voted for Brexit.

I am not saying UKIP will win, but they should not be complacently dismissed.

[ichkeria]

If eurosceptic voters are satisfied with the way things are going they will go with the Tories, as we saw in Sleaford. The Tories will say vote UKIP get Labour and Labour will say vote UKIP get the Tories. Europhiles will vote LibDem.
At the moment Labour and UKIP are up aganst it: the former because no one claims to know what they stand for on the EU issue, the latter because there isn't really any point to them just now

[TWR]

Or they might be afraid of someone telling the way it is & the truth Mikey/

[Gromit]

Copeland has been represented by Labour since 1935. I can't see the Tories winning. Even during Mrs Thatcher's landslide, it stayed solidly Labour.
If the Government gained a seat during a parliament it would be a good result for the Conservative. It is 34 years since a Government party made a gain.