UKIP won't disappear because they are a rallying point for people who are cross about things. Who feel that "the people" are not being listened to. A few years ago a handful of unhappy people founded the party and their rallying cry was "it's all gone pear-shaped because of our ties to Europe (and further more our pears are being forced into the shape "They" want)". More or less by accident, in recent years they've found themselves as the amateur players on stage with the mic suddenly being listened to, not least because they had a reasonably artiuclate and bright leader with a good line in patter who successfully conned a lot of people into thinking that he was a "man of the people" but also because of a wider feeling of discontent and disconnect with the "powers that be". Now, however, that it looks as though the scapegoat of Europe is about to be removed from the equation, they will need to have something or someone else to blame for life's ills, and the question is what? There will be something, you may be sure. Part of the problem for "populist" movements like UKIP is that they can indeed become very factional (they have that in common with parties of the far left): people disagree on their interpretation of what "the people" are really wanting ("the people" rarely speak with one voice anyway) so that's hardly surprising. I believe that the party's founder left or was expelled, and there have been a succession of splits and flounces in their history. The latest significant schism looks like being the sinister figure of Arron Banks, who looks like he is going to follow in the tradition of the party and leave to form his own offshoot. Meanwhile comparatively sensible politicians like Carswell and Reckless have looked at it and probably wisely thought: mission accomplished, better off out of it.