Film, Media & TV65 mins ago
Will June 8 Mean The End Of Labour?
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I recall a few discussions on here about whether losing the next election would mean the end of the Labour party.
Apparently, most of the members might actually want that to happen...
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Fewer than 40 percent of respondents said the opposition party should remain in its current form and many — emboldened by Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France — see an opportunity to rebrand Labour, the Telegraph said.//
//Sixty percent said they would like to see Labour merge with the Liberal Democrats if both are defeated by the Conservatives, //
Pitifully small sample size of 500 though. Do you think this survey is representative among Labour supporters?
Apparently, most of the members might actually want that to happen...
http://
//
Fewer than 40 percent of respondents said the opposition party should remain in its current form and many — emboldened by Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France — see an opportunity to rebrand Labour, the Telegraph said.//
//Sixty percent said they would like to see Labour merge with the Liberal Democrats if both are defeated by the Conservatives, //
Pitifully small sample size of 500 though. Do you think this survey is representative among Labour supporters?
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Such things don't help the Labour cause either;
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The Tories are already descending into arrogance, as witness the trouble caused by the so-called "dementia tax" where it would have been so much less controversial to have continued with the current testing but introduced a social insurance scheme. I can see this idea being dropped or modified.
However, the problems Labour face are not simply those of a party facing a heavy defeat in the polls: such defeats usually happen after a period in power. Labour will have been out of power for 7 years (it was only 4 at the cataclysm of 1983) when it in all probability goes even further backwards in June. One difficulty is that it is saddled with a system that gives too much power to people who are completely out of touch with what is needed to win elections. The tradiutional base for labour is shrunk and or divided. The Tories are eagerly, some would say cynically, gobbling up territory on the swivelling UKIP right (hard Brexit) as well as pushing into what remains of labour territory (state intervention is good), pretty much as Tony Blair did up to 1997.
(And possibly ignoring the bit in the middle for now as I alluded to earlier). What will come of that is unclear, but art the moment the danger for Labour is that many of the moderates will see little prospect of wresting the battle of ideas away from the hard left. There are effectively two labour parties fighting it out at the moment, as you can see clearly from the discord between the defence spokesperson and the shadow home secretary, leaving Corbyn floundering uselessly in the middle.
One good thing about Corbyn is he is a great campaigner, but his adoring audiences seem small in the grand scheme of things, and he seems unlikely to grow it much
However, the problems Labour face are not simply those of a party facing a heavy defeat in the polls: such defeats usually happen after a period in power. Labour will have been out of power for 7 years (it was only 4 at the cataclysm of 1983) when it in all probability goes even further backwards in June. One difficulty is that it is saddled with a system that gives too much power to people who are completely out of touch with what is needed to win elections. The tradiutional base for labour is shrunk and or divided. The Tories are eagerly, some would say cynically, gobbling up territory on the swivelling UKIP right (hard Brexit) as well as pushing into what remains of labour territory (state intervention is good), pretty much as Tony Blair did up to 1997.
(And possibly ignoring the bit in the middle for now as I alluded to earlier). What will come of that is unclear, but art the moment the danger for Labour is that many of the moderates will see little prospect of wresting the battle of ideas away from the hard left. There are effectively two labour parties fighting it out at the moment, as you can see clearly from the discord between the defence spokesperson and the shadow home secretary, leaving Corbyn floundering uselessly in the middle.
One good thing about Corbyn is he is a great campaigner, but his adoring audiences seem small in the grand scheme of things, and he seems unlikely to grow it much
I noticed yesterday that polls came out over the weekend implying that the gap is shrinking significantly -- although of course polls = take with a pinch of salt, and it still seems that the Tory support isn't budging -- so perhaps the death of the party will be avoided after all. Still merely a question of how bad the defeat is, though.
I notice that you haven't answered the point kromo made in the last page about the mighty Liberal party in the 1920s. I guess there is some level of difference because there was already a natural successor for the new "second party" of politics, whereas right now there is not. On the other hand that would bode ill if Labour did suffer horribly, because who then would take up that mantle?
Anyway, we'll have to wait and see what happens. If Labour can hold on to a reasonable number of seats, about what they have at the moment, then indeed rumours of their death will have been greatly exaggerated. But earlier we were staring at 20+ point poll margins, implying that Labour might shrink to their lowest number of seats since the early 1930s. It would still depend on how the party (and Corbyn) responded to that, of course.
Anyway, we'll have to wait and see what happens. If Labour can hold on to a reasonable number of seats, about what they have at the moment, then indeed rumours of their death will have been greatly exaggerated. But earlier we were staring at 20+ point poll margins, implying that Labour might shrink to their lowest number of seats since the early 1930s. It would still depend on how the party (and Corbyn) responded to that, of course.
That's unfair Mikey. You know I'm not a right-winger - I'm probably one of Labour's biggest cheerleaders on AB at the moment but I really think the party is (or will be) in more serious trouble than the Tories were if there's a huge landslide next month. The Tories had 18 years of governing experience and kept a level of talent in their party which Labour hasn't (although most of that seems to be lurking away from the limelight at the moment...).
"There are effectively two labour parties fighting it out at the moment"
This is the crux of it, ich. There are two Labour parties and both of them are very unpopular. The term "Blairite" is as toxic outside of the Labour party as within it, meanwhile even slightly left wing policies simply cannot shake the label of "radical commie". Neither the left of the party nor the centrists really consider themselves to be in control of it, and both of them to me seem despondent about continuing to work with the other.
How do you get out of that? I really don't think you can.
"There are effectively two labour parties fighting it out at the moment"
This is the crux of it, ich. There are two Labour parties and both of them are very unpopular. The term "Blairite" is as toxic outside of the Labour party as within it, meanwhile even slightly left wing policies simply cannot shake the label of "radical commie". Neither the left of the party nor the centrists really consider themselves to be in control of it, and both of them to me seem despondent about continuing to work with the other.
How do you get out of that? I really don't think you can.
Jim....I realise that the Libs used to be important but Labour effectively took over the role of an opposition to the Tories.
But they haven't really been a credible opponent to the Tories for many years. They are now paying the price of supping with the Devil between 2010 and 2015, and I can't see them being a real contender for the foreseeable future.
But they haven't really been a credible opponent to the Tories for many years. They are now paying the price of supping with the Devil between 2010 and 2015, and I can't see them being a real contender for the foreseeable future.
I disagree that the centre would necessarily be unpopular kromo.
Yes Blair is unpopular but the party's moved on from that. Any new or reformed opposition would need to occupy that territory and by 2022 who knows what state the Brexit negotiations for example will have left the landscape. A danger might be that a 'not-landslide' causes misplaced euphoria in the Corbynite camp after so nuch talk of crusging defeat.
Anyway projections in France show M Macron's party may be on course to go from zero to a mahority of seats in the Assemblee, which might encourage similarly minded neighbours across the Channel to try something new
Yes Blair is unpopular but the party's moved on from that. Any new or reformed opposition would need to occupy that territory and by 2022 who knows what state the Brexit negotiations for example will have left the landscape. A danger might be that a 'not-landslide' causes misplaced euphoria in the Corbynite camp after so nuch talk of crusging defeat.
Anyway projections in France show M Macron's party may be on course to go from zero to a mahority of seats in the Assemblee, which might encourage similarly minded neighbours across the Channel to try something new
Mikey, the ‘rabid’ right-wingers here aren’t the only people saying it though. Google ‘Labour Party dead’ and have a look. Personally, I don’t believe that Corbyn is solely responsible for the mess that Labour is in, but Lord Sugar, who quit the party in 2015 because of its "negative business policies" and "anti-enterprise concepts" has said that Jeremy Corbyn “is totally useless and has destroyed the Labour party.” He said “It’s finished. It’s dead”. Labour has for a long time slowly been committing suicide and we are watching what has been called ‘a once noble party’ struggling in its death throes.
You don’t recall hearing anyone say the Tory party was dead because it wasn’t. Labour either doesn’t understand, or stubbornly refuses to acknowledge, that times have changed, people have changed, and aspirations have changed. You’re backing a dead horse, Mikey.
You don’t recall hearing anyone say the Tory party was dead because it wasn’t. Labour either doesn’t understand, or stubbornly refuses to acknowledge, that times have changed, people have changed, and aspirations have changed. You’re backing a dead horse, Mikey.
You could be right ich. But as long as Labour centrists have the name "Labour" attached to them, they're always going to have the Blair government as a lodestone around their neck, regardless of how much of it they agree with or even if they were remotely involved in it.
And yes, playing the "long game", it's easy to imagine the Tories being burned out by 2022, especially if there's a new opposition. Call me impatient, I just really don't fancy the next 5 years under Chairman May...
And yes, playing the "long game", it's easy to imagine the Tories being burned out by 2022, especially if there's a new opposition. Call me impatient, I just really don't fancy the next 5 years under Chairman May...
To be really fair on Mikey, there were people predicting Tory doom before Cameron became leader:
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I remember reading this book as a teenager, it was one of my first introductions to politics...
Still, I think there's significant differences between the Tory position post-'97 and the problems Labour have in front of them.
https:/
I remember reading this book as a teenager, it was one of my first introductions to politics...
Still, I think there's significant differences between the Tory position post-'97 and the problems Labour have in front of them.
I can't remember the exact wording of the quote, but there was a line in Marr's History of Modern Britain that clearly still rings true: when the Tories lose an election, they knuckle down, work out what went wrong, and come back stronger. When Labour lose an election, they end up tearing themselves apart.
It will depend on the nature of the loss this time round, but if it's anything like as bad as it could be the internal bloodletting will be a sight to behold.
It will depend on the nature of the loss this time round, but if it's anything like as bad as it could be the internal bloodletting will be a sight to behold.
Kromo...I had no intention of defining you, of all people, as a righty. Apologies if it came out that way.
All I am saying is that this coming Election is not going to be the demise of Labour IMHO. Lots of people on here are getting far too histrionic about all this.
My understanding of the future is still the same.....Labour will come back again in the future, as it always have.
All I am saying is that this coming Election is not going to be the demise of Labour IMHO. Lots of people on here are getting far too histrionic about all this.
My understanding of the future is still the same.....Labour will come back again in the future, as it always have.
I'm wondering if some of the reason for the poll narrowing is 'anti-landslide bounce' where people think they can safely vote Labour without them actually winning. Which many people think explains the late swing to Brexit after some assessed that a cause they only half heartedly supported anyway was dead after the Jo Cox killing.
That might keep Mr Crosby up all night doing Coalition of Chaos letters to the waverers!
That might keep Mr Crosby up all night doing Coalition of Chaos letters to the waverers!
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