An Explanation Please

[Bigbad]

To some posts I have read on here.

I’ve read posts on AB suggesting there could be another GE soon.
Can someone please explain to me how this could come about.
Surely the Conservatives wouldn’t instigate it in case they loose?

I’ve also seen people suggesting that Labour should be given the chance to govern so that they could mess up and the Conservatives could come back stronger and clear up the mess.
Surely for this to happen all non-Labour voters would be the ones to ‘suffer’ during this time, and any ‘clear up’ wouldn’t happen overnight.

[scooping]

May loses a vote of confidence in the Commons, by a simple majority. Second largest Party unable to command a majority - general election.
May could resign and call a general election but would only get it if the Commons voted for it (simple majority and the same as she did seven weeks ago). May could resign and a new Tory leader take the reins. That could trigger a general election (only if the Commons voted for it) or the new leader could command a simple majority of the Commons and go forward with no general election. Those are all the possibilities methinks that could cause a general election soon.

[Bigbad]

Thank you scooping, but if Mrs. May looses a vote of confidence, doesn’t that mean some Conservatives would have to vote against her, thus potentially shooting themselves in the foot?

[TheChair]

"the Conservatives could come back stronger and clear up the mess. "
Haaaaaa ha ha ha ha ha!
The NHS is on its knees.
The economy is the second-worst performing in Europe (beaten to the bottom by Greece).
Standards of living have fallen and are predicted to continue falling
The Conservatives are propped up by a terrorist organisation whose members believe in creationism.
Who's gonna clear up that mess?

[scooping]

BigBad: Possibly, but the cobbled-together deal with the DUP could break down at any time.

[Bigbad]

TheChair. I do hope you are not quoting me in the first line of your post.
It was part of the question I asked, which so far nobody has answered.

[fiction-factory]

>"if Mrs. May looses a vote of confidence, doesn’t that mean some Conservatives would have to vote against her, "

No. The Conservatives are in a minority and could lose a vote if either a few Tories are absent or if DUP votes against them.I'd have to check the figures but Tories may just survive if DUP abstain as I don't think Sinn Fein take their seats so don't vote. A couple of by election defeats could also weaken their position further. Some Tories could abstain on votes too if particualrly controversial- say on Brexit or on issues involving Northern Ireland

[scooping]

BigBad: A Tory would not have to vote against her. One or two might abstain, albeit a remote possibility. And, as I've said, no Tories would have to vote against her, or abstain, if the DUP deal crumbled, either wholly or in part.

[Bigbad]

Thanks FF. A lot of if's but's and maybe's, then!

[scooping]

Fiction-factory: Excellent point. The DUP couldn't vote for legislation contrary to their position domestically or they'd be hammered at home.

[mushroom25]

the possibility of anything fundamental happening short term is unlikely. the house has barely got time to hear and digest the queens speech before it rises for its summer holiday. mps will then be missing in action until after the party conference season, so expect a hiatus until at least October....

[Bigbad]

Whatever happens, that woman has left us in a proper shambles.
As a rabid Brexiter, I can now see any Brexit deal being some namby pamby, cotton wool wrapped mess.

[Old_Geezer]

It can come about because everyone agrees that the existing situation isn't working and it is pointless continuing, as much legislation is blocked and nothing much is being done. Trying to get the public to make a better decision becomes the only rational option.

[Old_Geezer]

I may be wrong but I think that a motion of no confidence is directed at the government rather than the PM. So Conservatives wouldn't be voting against their PM, but against the ability the whole government has to presently govern effectively.

[ichkeria]

How it can happen is as follows: 2 thirds vote in Commons for an election under FTPA.
That plainly is not going to happen.
More likely a majority vote of no confidence. That would open up a 14 day period for Labour or indeed anyone else to try to form a govt. That also seems mighty unlikely. So there'd thbe an election and who knows maybe another hung parliament

[fiction-factory]

It's hard to see how another election this year could lead to a conclusive result either way, unless May is replaced by a popular, inspirational leader. Labour might increase its share of the vote but would it be enough to get a majority?

[Peter Pedant]

I think most of these are correct TBH
first you need to lose a vote of confidence
( callaghan lost by one vote - the SInn Fein member stayed in his pub and didnt vote and that spelt defeat. He boasted after that he had elected Margt Thatcher single handedly altho I doubt he chortled for very long)
The then PM can ask for a dissolution- ie the queen doesnt have to grant one
but the queen is allowed to delay and suggest another lead a ministry. If no 2 says no then there is a GE

The last time there was a palace bust up over this was .. 1962 when the cons booted out MacMillan and told the queen that Alex Doo Dah was the new prime minister. and she said "Ay'm not sure about that " and they said " yes we are / we mean you are marm"

SHE took private advice which she paid for (!) from Sir Ivor Jennings at Cge over whether she had to comply. His advice was that in the absence of another leader she probably would....

then he wrote a book about it
The Queens Government orig 1954 edition 1963
OK he rewrote and brought up to date a book he had previously written about it - available on amazon for one penny

(These ideas are not too complex for AB - are they ?)

[Peter Pedant]

// Whatever happens, that woman has left us in a proper shambles. //

no you as a voter have

the voters themselves - some intentionally - have really messed up.
Did you vote to weaken Brexit negotiations ? No well anyway that is the result

[Bigbad]

No, Peter Pedant.
Mrs. May has left us in a proper shambles.
She called the election, she gave us a manifesto that people didn’t like and she gave us a lacklustre campaign.
The voters democratically voted for Brexit (There was no hard or soft option on the Brexit ballot paper), and as a result of her cock-up, Brexit will probably turn in to Brex(sh)it.

[mikey4444]

Mrs May is going to spend the next few weeks and months looking over her shoulder.

Member of her own Party have criticised her reckless move, in having a unnecessary Election. She is going to have to watch her back like a hawk.

As regards the pact she has made with the Devil, in the form of the DUP....its a very high risk strategy, that she may live to regret.

A quote from "The Godfather Part 2" comes to mind :::

"My father taught me many things here — he taught me in this room. He taught me — keep your friends close but your enemies closer."

[scooping]

Ichkeria: The two-thirds only applies to the fixed-term parliament Act. So May could lose a no confidence vote, on a simple majority, Labour try to form a new government, fail, and then two-thirds vote for a general election - which they would have to do to get a new government.