Will German Industry Save Us?

[Kromovaracun]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany/prepare-now-for-over-the-cliff-brexit-german-industry-says-idUKKBN1CA0KV

We've often heard predictions that the German govt will be pressured by lobbyists from the auto industry into softening in their stance over Britain and giving us a better exit deal. Can we really be so sure, given that those very lobbyists aren't quite sending supportive signals?

//To prepare for a disruptive British departure from the EU, the BDI said it had set up a task force including major companies, which trains-to-turbines group Siemens (SIEGn.DE) said it was part of.

...

“German companies with a presence in Britain and Northern Ireland must now make provisions for the serious case of a very hard exit. Anything else would be naive.”

...
Sources told Reuters in September that big players such as Airbus (AIR.PA) and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) were participants.
Siemens, which employs more than 15,000 people in Britain including a wind-power joint venture Siemens Gamesa (SGREN.MC), said it was joining too. “Obviously we’re very interested in this whole endeavour,” a spokesman said.
Germany’s VDA automobile association, which represents major manufacturers such as BMW (BMWG.DE), is also involved, a VDA spokeswoman said. //

[ToraToraTora]

I think they'll save themselves, they want to flog us their jam jars and if the red tape brigade knobble that then the Germans wont be too pleased. In the end business will drive brexit as I have said many times.

[Kromovaracun]

OK but that doesn't seem to be how they are actually behaving, is it?

[naomi24]

Save us from what? They'll want to sell us their wares regardless.

[Kromovaracun]

From defaulting to WTO rules, I suppose.

[dannyk13]

The German motor industry will not want to hand over a lucrative market to the Japanese.

[naomi24]

More scaremongering.

[Kromovaracun]

Are we just going to insist that they are going to do something they clearly are not currently planning on doing?

[dannyk13]

Kromo, as with everything else concerning Brexit we will just have tio wait and see.All this speculation is a waste of time.

[ToraToraTora]

naomi: "Save us from what? They'll want to sell us their wares regardless." - only if they are priced accordingly, if we end up not doing
a deal and enter a trade war with the EU because of eejits like Barnier and Junckers then it's is those that sell to us that'll suffer. In the end business expediency will overcome political dogma.

[Khandro]

It would be a foolish company which didn't make contingency plans for all possible eventualities. I'll bet there are plans in case the whole of the EU starts to disintegrate.
You don't have to even look at the stats, just look at the roads in Britain and see how many VWs, BMWs, Audis, Mercs, and even one or two Porsches are running around to see what a blow a 'hard' Brexit would be for only the German Car industry.
Then there's also Bosch, Siemens et al.

[naomi24]

//In the end business expediency will overcome political dogma.//

Absolutely right.

[youngmafbog]

If the Germans(EU) want to be on a level playing field with other car manufactuers on WTO then fine.

Remember at present we pay a tarriff, 13.1Bn (yes I know we are told how we can spens 4Bn of that not how we aant). The big difference is all tax payers are currenlty funding flashy Merc/BMW and Audi's, effectively their owners are being subsidised by the tax payer.

If the Germans think a hard Brexit is on the cards then that is good. Lets get on with it and stop pandering to the Remainers that are trying to stay through the back door.

[Khandro]

Of course you do know that Reuters and the FT are both wildly opposed to Brexit?

[youngmafbog]

Well they would be as they are driven by International business that is currently living of the back of the British tax payer.

[youngmafbog]

*Big* International business.

[Kromovaracun]

Unfortunately, there is no such thing as an unbiased source. So yes, I am aware of Reuters' stance on Brexit.

Having done a couple minutes' worth of checking, though (and yes, that's all I'm willing to do for casual posts on the answerbank - nail me to the cross) I haven't found anything to make me seriously doubt the story.

[cassa333]

Any business worth their salt will be looking at all eventualities.

The best scenario is tariff free but unless fingers are pulled out of behinds it is looking shakier and shakier.

Our own business should be doing the same. Sitting lamenting what you don't want to happen doesn't actually stop it happening and getting dominos in a line for a 'no free trade deal' is the sensible thing to do.

[Ellipsis]

In the UK, sales of motor vehicles are way down, growth is down and productivity is down. So we're less attractive, and become even less attractive, to German car manufactures.

At the same time, we export lots of cars to the EU. JLR is one of our biggest exporters.

So, as far as the Germans are concerned, buyers of JLR in the EU can now buy their products instead. Meanwhile, JLR can sell its cars into the UK.

The Germans win on penalties again.

[Davemano]

All that I will say on this subject is that Siemens are going to expand further in the UK.

[Old_Geezer]

It is only sensible to make provisions for possible outcomes. But we clinging on to the hope that the EU negotiators will suddenly get a moment of realisation regarding what they are risking, and start to negotiate sensible trade deals, and other concerns, rather than refuse to discuss some things yet and stand unmoving to the suggestions made to them.