Electoral Calculus

[mikey4444]

Its been a while since we discussed Polls on here, so I thought I would pst the latest EC :::::

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

[mikey4444]

Danny....for the reasons I have given above. June 2022 is not written in stone, anymore than June 2020 was.

At the moment, May is being propped up by the DUP, but only on a few issues. Not this one though ::

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-tories-dup-labour-women-pensions-waspi-cash-for-votes-deal-manifesto-coalition-a7999251.html

It seems that the DUP are not terribly happy with Hammond either :::

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/14/dup-orders-theresa-may-rein-divisive-philip-hammond/

They are not fans of a hard BREXIT either

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/who-dup-what-policies-mean-10589910

Many a slip twix cup and lip it would seem.

[jim360]

The next election isn't due until 2022 (not 2021), but we've already had one early election, and a minority government tasked with the enormous and divisive role of delivering Brexit is presumably quite vulnerable to yet another early election. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if there were one next year, for example; although more likely it would be something like a few months after "Brexit Day" in March 2019, after which point there's no longer any reason for the Tories to pretend to be united.

[mikey4444]

Jim....if they are pretending to be united now, than I haven't noticed !

[dannyk13]

Mikey, I suspect that your blinkers prevent you from noticing a lot of things.

[webbo3]

Mikey

\\The Tories may have won 43.5% of the vote in June, but it still failed to give them a working majority, thus entailing the need to bribe the Bowler-Hatted Bigots with funds from the Magic Money Tree, the tree that didn't exist in the run-up to June 8th. //

http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/11/labour-tried-to-do-deals-with-the-dup-last-time-there-was-a-hung-parliament-6701733/

https://order-order.com/2017/06/11/labour-repeatedly-tried-to-do-deals-with-the-dup/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4597904/Labour-accused-hypocrisy-criticising-talks-DU.html

[ToraToraTora]

oh dear mikey, dippy Gordon tried to get into bed with the BHBs in 2010, whoops! PMSL!

[jourdain2]

Mikey, I agree with you about Water - it is essential and should not be subject to business/political whims. The rest, I can't go along with so easily. It is a Poll taken at a difficult time, so no surprises.

[mikey4444]

Jourdain....so is gas and electrcity....just as essential as water.

These Polls were taken just a few weeks after the Election was called, and for the Tories to lose so much support, in so small a time, shows what a mess they are in.

[ichkeria]

I'm not sure we have a status quo - everything seems in a sate of flux.
As for the date of the next election, even that is not certain

[mikey4444]

The Fixed Term Parliament Act tried to make future Elections a bit more certain, but May reneged on a previous promise and kicked that into touch.

By the way, the FTPA was brought in by a previous Tory Government.....you couldn't make it up !

[ToraToraTora]

"May reneged on a previous promise and kicked that into touch. " - what promise?

[mikey4444]

TTT....she said that she wasn't going to call an early Election, but that is exactly what she did :::

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/five-times-theresa-may-no-10-ruled-snap-general-election/#

[ToraToraTora]

well she needed Labour to do it too. Jezza had to agree.

[youngmafbog]

So why didnt JC tell her to get lost and no election then Mickey?

[mikey4444]

ymb...because he thought he could win the Election, and he nearly did.

[Davemano]

Same old topic over and over again, gats a bit sickening.

[Davemano]

I should have added Labour in - Country bankrupt.

[naomi24]

Mikey, //TTT....you show that you do not understand how British politics works. //

So speaks the man who thinks utilities can be re-nationalised at no cost.

[youngmafbog]

//because he thought he could win the Election, and he nearly did. //

Oh I see, so it is ok for Labour to call an election if they think they can win but not the Tories? I giuess that fits with the labour mantra of do as I say not as I do.

/And he nearly did/ Whilst Labour did far better than expected and gained 30 seats they were still 50 seats behind the Tories so a long way from victory this time.

[ToraToraTora]

and TM got a higher percentage of the vote than Saint Tony in 1997! who'd have thought it eh?