Are We Entering A Crisis?

[Kromovaracun]

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/brexit-ireland-and-uk-agree-deal-on-border-but-dup-issues-warnings-on-terms-36377250.html

May has (allegedly) come to an agreement over NI which, according to a leaked draft, sees the province "maintaining regulatory alignment" (i.e. common market) with the Republic after Brexit.

In response, Arlene Foster - whose MPs are presently propping the government up - has stated that NI must leave the EU "on the same terms as the rest of the UK", and Nicola Sturgeon has on Twitter said that "If one part of the UK can retain regulatory alignment with the EU ... there is surely no good practical reason why others can't."

Is the UK about to enter a crisis?

[jim360]

Probably not, but it wouldn't surprise me if Corbyn felt that he could win an election, as by that point the Tories would look like they were struggling to be fit to govern.

At any rate, I doubt that he'd lead his Labour Party to vote in favour of keeping on a minority Tory government...

The sensible solution following a No Confidence vote might be to avoid an election by forming a government of national unity. May steps down, someone from the senior Cabinet takes her place, Kier Starmer gets drafted into the Brexit Department, that sort of thing, where hopefully everyone can see that coming together is the best solution in the short term and they can go back to Tribalism in 2020.

[scooping]

I think we are entering a crisis. The hard border/soft border problem seems to be insoluable in the sense that neither side of the argument is acceptable to at least one major player (Eire, NI and GB). Sadly, Corbyn must be singing in his allotment shed (but not the national anthem of course).

[Gromit]

// I don't remember the border between NI and Eire being discussed at all, in the run up to the Referendum. //

Then you have a short memory. The scenario we are now in was predicted before the referendum.

Read the first post on this thread.
https://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1496874.html

[Gromit]

The DUP delivering a United Ireland - now there’s irony.

[mikey4444]

I stand corrected Gromit !

[jim360]

What probably *is* true is that any idea of the Irish border issues being difficult to resolve was lumped in with "Project Fear" as just another dire warning that was surely not going to come true because everyone wants Brexit really.

I hope it doesn't prove a stumbling block but the problem is it's hard to see what compromises can even exist, let alone be agreed upon.

[dannyk13]

I have no doubt that the Eu will have many stumbling blocks for us to surmount before we eventually leave.

[Kromovaracun]

//election and whoever wins that will have the same problems.//

That sounds pretty crisis-like to me...

[scooping]

Maybe there's something to be said for just leaving. Then sort out deals. Drastic, yes, but seems we are getting the runaround.

[Jackdaw33]

So we have to kow-tow to Eire! Talk about the tail wagging the dog.

[mikey4444]

Danny...I am not sure that the issue of NI/Eire is of the EU's doing....the issue springs from the decision of the British people to leave the EU.

And a solution has to be found. The Government has plenty of time to get its mind around this problem, but with only a few months to go before we leave, they still haven't worked out what to do.

[jim360]

Missed a golden opportunity for "talk about the Dáil wagging the dog" tbh, JD.

[dannyk13]

Mikey, the Eu have stated that they will back Eire in this matter and will support any veto by Eire.

[Gromit]

// ...a four-page, wrap-around cover advert in the Metro newspaper promoting the Leave campaign ahead of the Brexit referendum in June 2016, an extraordinary move that cost some £282,000. //

// This turned out to have been paid for by the DUP, which was odd as the party only stands in Northern Ireland where the Metro is not published. //

// However in February, after some political pressure over the issue, the DUP MP Sir Jeffrey Donaldson revealed that the adverts had been paid using a £425,000 donation from a group called the Constitutional Research Council (CRC), chaired by former Scottish Conservative vice-chairman and Glasgow-based businessman, Richard Cook. //

The CRC is funded by donations, but won’t say where it got the £475,000 from. All that coming after the revelation that a donation of £625,000 from Leave.eu to a fashion student, Darren Grimes, who then funneled the money to Donald Trump’s friend, US billionaire Robert Mercer’s firm Cambridge Analytica.

[New Judge]

“Any vote of no confidence will be about May as leader, not the government.”

Not so, jackdaw. A “vote of no confidence” (such as is being discussed here with the government losing its majority) is a vote of no confidence in the government. This is called in the House of Commons by MPs. A vote of no confidence in Mrs May as Prime Minister (or more specifically as leader of the Conservative Party) can only be called by Conservative MPs. The latter can be called (and lost by Mrs May) without the government falling in the Commons.

Whilst the DUP may cause the defeat in the Commons on the specific issue of the leaving deal (as it might affect Northern Ireland) it is not very likely they will support a vote of No Confidence in the Commons. They have only just begun their fifteen minutes of fame and are unlikely to want to see it cut short.

“…neither side of the argument is acceptable to at least one major player (Eire, NI and GB).”

Yes it is. Nobody in Ireland, nobody in Northern Ireland and nobody in the rest of the UK wants to see a border between the Six Counties and Ireland. It is the EU which is maintaining the confusion because the divide forms the border between the UK and their precious “Single Market” area. As such I would suggest the problem is one for the EU to resolve.

“Danny...I am not sure that the issue of NI/Eire is of the EU's doing....”

Yes it is, Mikey (see above). If Ireland had joined the EU without the UK some solution would have to have been found (by Ireland and the EU). Now the UK is leaving the EU without Ireland the same applies.

[ichkeria]

Well, who saw that one coming then :-)
This is a collision that has been coming since June 23 last year

[jim360]

NJ's assertion that this could have been sorted out if Ireland joined and the UK did not seems a bit moot because (a) that didn't happen and (b) Ireland and the UK joined on the same day, so the problem certainly never came up.

Presumably there *is* a solution available, but equally Brexit supporters should perhaps give more consideration to the existence of conflicting interests here, and therefore stop pretending that the problem is easy to surmount.

[DTCwordfan]

I am not surprised that jumped-up socialist in Scotland is calling for regulatory alignment with the EU - cast them off with Northern Ireland and they can pay for all their funding that they have sucked out of London - 50 bln even.....the funding problem solved, Theresa.

[jim360]

Sometimes I wonder if other English people ever really got over Bannockburn :/

[New Judge]

Quite so, Jim. My hypothesis was just that - hypothetical. I was using it to demonstrate the situation that would have existed had Ireland joined without us. A solution (between the EU and Ireland) would have been devised then and one will have to be be devised now.

There is no way NI should be in any way different to the rest of the UK when Brexit concludes. Ireland has far more to lose in this matter than does the UK and their intransigence (no doubt prompted by their EU Lords and Masters) will do them no favours. To put the blame for the impasse on the UK for having the temerity to leave the EU is ridiculous. It suggests that because of the Ireland problem that the UK and Ireland are joined at the hip as far as EU membership is concerned. We can only be in or out if Ireland agrees. Clearly preposterous.