Finally China See Sense....

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42464011
Cutting petrol exports to NK to 10% of what they were, that's gotta hurt.

[Khandro]

Yes, the poor hapless population, but not fatboy, he will still get the lobster he insists having on flights.

[Zacs-Master]

I wonder what the response will be?

[jno]

it'll hurt China if millions of refugees end up on their doorstep.

[Kidas]

I think the situation is a lot more complex than even the BBC can relate. Certainly Trump's chief advisor on China, Peter Navarro is no expert on either China or the DPRK (see here: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/13/peter-navarro-profile-national-trade-council-donald-trump-china-expert/ )

I go to China three or four times per year and talk a lot to the people there - both Chinese and Chna-friendly westerners.

China wants to avoid two things: war (or nuclear strike) on its own territory and refugees coming from DPRK into Liaoning and other nearby Provinces.

China also wants the US to remove the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air defence) missile system from south Korea. That has a radar that can see around 2000km. Beijing is 1000 km from Seoul; Hong Kong is 2000km from Seoul. That radar can see deep into Chinese territory. The Chinese see THAAD as an aggressive act by the USA.

We know there have been discussinos between US and China over THAAD in which China has promised to stop DPRK's weapons development programmes if the US removes THAAD.

The US has turned down that offer.

Ask yourself, how did DPRK develop nuclear fusion bombs (H-bombs) and ultra-long range ballistic missiles in the space of a couple of years. It is simply not possible without external help. That means either Russia or China.

I am convinced China has been helping DPRK with these systems in order to introduce uncertainty into the foreign relations environment to convince the USA to remove the THAAD system from S Korea.

Trouble is, Trump is calling their bluff. I guess the Trump supporters see that as courageous; others see it as foolhardy.

The key is persuading China that it is in their own interests to stop supporting DPRK. You do not do that by making conditions in DPRK even more deprived. You do it by treating China with some respect.

IMHO.

[Old_Geezer]

That would be down to 10% of the official, above board trade I take it.
Still, should give pause for thought.

[ToraToraTora]

all very interesting kidas but China did agree to the sanctions.

[Kidas]

Hi TTT
They did - like I said it is complex. China knows it has the luxury of time - they are playing a long game to return to the situation they have known for the last 10,000 years (with the exception of the last 200). That is to say, world dominance.
They have a range of tools: economic, cyber, military, soft power; media control to drive this agenda forward.
Picking a battle with the UN now would not be wise. They see the disruption in the US and its steady withdrawal from world affairs to be a great opportunity to expand influence in Asia - especially the Pacific rim ('Belt' part of the Belt and Road initiative) and the landmass between China and Europe ('Road' part of the Belt and road initiative).
Hence the massive spending on infrastructure in all those regions.
This at a time when Trump ripped up the Trans-Pacific Partnership, that the US under Obama negotiated specifically to erode Chinese influence in the region.
President Xi knows he is in power for at least 10 years. Probably 15. This gives the Communist Party of China (CPP) time to out-wit the West.
Both Russia and China are working to de-stabilise Western democracies. In my opinion, they are succeeding.
Russia through fake news, twitter trolls and others; China through economic power, control of raw materials and media ownership.
I know almost nothing about this, compared to the real experts, but even I can see that the West is massively under-estimating the risks associated with Chinese expansionism.
Your mileage may vary. It's just an opinion.

[Khandro]

kidas; //China knows it has the luxury of time - they are playing a long game //

Indeed! isn't it from thence came, "Softly, softly, chatchee monkey"?

[ToraToraTora]

a very good and calmly put insight kidas, half a BA for both your answers above.

[Khandro]

//Finally China See Sense....//
I think it is time for America and the West to see sense, and there's a lot of it in Pat Buchanan's article here;

http://takimag.com/article/what_should_we_fight_for_patrick_buchanan/print#axzz52BmVPKmB