The Myth Of The 2017 'youthquake' Election

[mikey4444]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342

So it didn't happen after all !

Perhaps Labour did so well last June because they weren't the Tories !
'

[naomi24]

"Look at me. I've got youth on my side".

Jeremy was lying again then.

[mikey4444]

No Naomi. If you read this article, it can be seen that the Labour share of the vote went up across the board, not just amongst the young.

Being a Tory voter of course, that truth isn't convenient is it ?

[cassa333]

Just from the graph it looks like 15/17 a 20% increase in youth vote. Was that new voters or existing voters that changed to Labour?

Although admittedly I didn't read the article in its entirety it seemed to be saying that there was a modest youth increase that couldn't have accounted for the labour gains that it did.

It still does seem though that the extra youth vote did have an effect that 'tipped the vote over' rather than the youthquake effect.

I will have a fuller read perhaps later but I wonder where this extra 20% were? Was it university towns, the shires or metropolitan areas?

[bhg481]

Another way of looking at it is that the Tory share of the vote went down. We weren't able to vote at the last election, so I'm not sure of details but I seem to remember the Tories came out with a policy which upset older voters, traditionally Tory (pensions, inheritance?). I feel that this, coupled with the fact that "there was no way Labour could win" made a lot of Tory voters abstain and the result was more dramatic than they expected. I don't think the same will happen next time.

[Old_Geezer]

Oppositions ought to expect increased support as time goes by.

But being against the public's democratic decisions, by being anti-Brexit, and calling for authorities to grab citizen's possessions simply because the State covets them, will inevitably limit success.

[naomi24]

Mikey at 07:57, nothing to do with convenience. If the report is accurate, Jeremy's claim wasn't. You can't have it both ways, Mikey.

Personally I suspect this is a case of ...erm ..... statistics - and we all know what they can do.

[Kromovaracun]

It's mixed good and bad news for the Corbyn leadership. On the one hand, much of their strategy does involve appealing to younger voters - which in light of this data looks less likely to work. On the other hand, it means his support is more entrenched than previously thought among the existing group of electors.

It also suggests that the idea that droves of young people flocked to Corbyn's banner because of his (perceived) stance on fees is not true and that the explanation of Labour's unexpected gains last election lies elsewhere.

[Kromovaracun]

Erm, Jeremy's "youth on my side" was a pun made at the end of an interview very close after the election was finished and before anyone had the time to analyse it properly. The news at the time was covered in reports of a youth surge for Corbyn, and he just made a pun out of it. It's not exactly "I am not a crook" is it?

[youngmafbog]

//Since 1964, the gold standard measure of electoral behaviour in Britain has been the British Election Study's face-to-face survey.//

A glorified poll then?

As voting is anonymous we will not know the voting patterns, polls can be interpreted in many ways usually to suit the message. It certainly would be interesting to know the answer but short of the unacceptable idea of voting not being anonymous we just cannot know for sure.

[mikey4444]

Keep sticking your heads in the sand then !

[youngmafbog]

The idea of JC's youth popularity came from all the photo 'opportunities' with young people at festivals and the such like. He certainly did appear to have a youth following but as always it is impossible to tell whether or not that translated into votes.

I am sure JC and all other politicians would love to know exactly where votes come from, but that is an impossibility so they will all just have to try harder across the board.

[youngmafbog]

//Keep sticking your heads in the sand then ! //

Eh?

I think it is you who has his head stuck far up where the sun does not shine.

We simply don't know the answer for sure and neither do you.

[Sqad]

Yes, mikey....I will accept the figures of that academic committee, all well qualified and signalling a move to Labour in the young voters BUT the 2017 election was all about brexit and in my opinion 99% of young voters and 80% of "adult" voters had no idea of the implications of leaving the EU. In other word......it was a one off election.
BUT...yes.....if that's what the figures show then the Tories will have to attract the younger voters in some way.

[mikey4444]

YMB....since last summer, the righties on here have said that Labours surge in support was due entirely to the increase in voter participation by younger people.

This article now says that that is probably not true, and you appear not to agree with it, although you finish off by saying that "we don't know"

[youngmafbog]

And 80% of "adult" voters had no idea of the implications of staying in the EU either !

[Prudie]

As soon as I heard this on the news this morning I thought of Mikey, now that is worrying...

[mikey4444]

Morning Sqad !

At last someone who understands what this report means !

But don't forget, the Tories, as well as Labour, and all other major political Partys, with one exception, had a policy to remain, and yet the vote still went for BREXIT.

That is all water under the bridge, however, and as you say, the Tories need to increase support, not just amongst the younger voters, but across the board.

[youngmafbog]

//although you finish off by saying that "we don't know"//

If you read my posts carefully for what I have written rather than what you think I have written you will see all I have said is that we dont know. And I have explained why.

//MB....since last summer, the righties on here have said that Labours surge in support was due entirely to the increase in voter participation by younger people//

Correct, because that was the message given out by the media, left and right. JC didnt seem to coorect it so he clearly thought so too and why wouldn't he given the information on hand?

However a new 'poll' not facts has been release saying different. Doesnt mean it is wrong, doesnt mean it is correct. I am the one with eyes open for recognizing what it is rahter than you latching onto it as absolute gospel because it suits you agenda.

Try to be a bit more open minded and ask questions rather than leap to conclusions.

[ichkeria]

Labour’s comparative success was never as I recall put down entirely to the ‘youth vote’ That was one reason. But there were other equally weighted ones.
I don’t think this is good news for labour if true. In fact I don’t think it’s goid news full stop if it really is the case that younger voters are still not turning out in as great numbers as expected. Tho it doesn’t always take much of a shift to make a disproportionately large effect sometimes

[ToraToraTora]

err, the article finished with this: " Labour was more popular among young people than old people in 2017 and its share of the youth vote did increase." - so what are you on about mikey?