Eu To Lose £500Bn And Uk To Gain £640Bn In No-Deal Brexit

[naomi24]

…says Patrick Minford professor of economics at Cardiff University and chair of the Eurosceptic Economists for Free Trade group.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/13/eu-lose-500bn-uk-gain-640bn-no-deal-brexit-economist-claims/

The Sun itemises:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6944176/a-no-deal-brexit-will-hit-european-countries-the-hardest-costing-them-a-whopping-500bn/

No surprise they’re reluctant to let us go. Bring it on!

[Kromovaracun]

No doubt I'll immediately be accused of 'newspeak' 'scaremongering' 'lip-pulling' and a pick-n-mix of various other dreck...

[jim360]

As a further point, I don't exactly expect my views to meet with much agreement here, but I would have hoped that people might at least do me the courtesy of dealing with the content, rather than labelling what I say as "a joke".

[Ellipsis]

> I think it has been established that we buy more from the EU than we sell them. That will still be the case after Brexit.

How long after?

We buy more from the EU than we sell them while we are members of the EU. There is absolutely no evidence that this will continue to remain the case once we leave the EU. There is not even a suggestion of why it would or should remain the case ...

[jim360]

Oh, stop it with your newspeak ellipsis :P what a joke! Hurhurhur

[dannyk13]

Ellipsis, how do you think we managed before 1973 ?

[Ellipsis]

How do you think that is relevant to 2019, dannyk13?

[Kromovaracun]

Quite, Ellipsis. I don't see any reason to suppose that we'll still continue to trade in the same volumes we do now if the pound weakens, tariffs go up, and the UK begins to regulate out of sync with the EU (which is in theory the whole point of Brexit).

[sunny-dave]

Interesting comparisons, Krom - but they are from early 2016 - well over two years ago (and based on even older data) - before the improvements in GDP and employment that have scuppered so many of the 'adverse effect' predictions?

[vetuste_ennemi]

// that is a comparison between just about every other [than Minford's] Brexit forecast that has been made under a bunch of different models, including by HM Treasury. Do you see a pattern?//

"Including by HM Treasury"? Yes, I do see a pattern.

There are a number of videos on Youtube by Minford which I watched at the time (2016 and all that). He actually argued for Britain's going unilaterally free trade, but I can't remember (even if I undestood them at the time) his reasons.

[dannyk13]

Because we were not in EU prior to that date and we managed quite well as we will when we leave.

[sunny-dave]

Jim - I've stayed out of the name calling (at least for today :-] ) and tried to gainsay your arguments - we don't agree, but I respect your position.

[dannyk13]

^ for Ellipsis^

[jim360]

Before 1973, the UK's economy was not exactly brilliant*, so even supposing it were a relevant comparison it's not exactly an encouraging one.

*Growing at a modest pace, but lagging seriously behind most other major economies.

[Kromovaracun]

I think the world might have changed a bit since 1973, danny.

[jim360]

Many thanks, SD.

[dannyk13]

Kromo, you are just ignoring the point I am making but as you appear to be an apologist for the remainers I am not surprised.

[Ellipsis]

How we managed before 1973 is quite irrelevant to 2019, dannyk13. The world is a quite different place.

Of course we will manage when we leave, but this thread is about how much worse off the EU will be and how much better off we will be when we leave, which is nonsense.

I can understand people voting to leave for all sorts of reasons, but "improved trade" is not one of them - and especially not if you have any care for the environment, as any improved trade could only be with countries who are a long physical distance from us when compared to the EU.

[Old_Geezer]

The world may be dynamic but our character isn't obviously lacking at present, well except for those pushing Chequers offers I guess. Have confidence.

[dannyk13]

Ellipsis, next time you are in a supermarket I suggest you look at the packets and see how many products come from places outside the EU.

[Garaman]

Take the car trade as an example where we export about 40% of the cars built to the EU. You can’t just say we can sell them elsewhere like we used to before joining because the car companies are using the UK as a manufacturing base for the EU.