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Business & Finance2 mins ago
Brexit
DOMINIC RAAB , GOES!.
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Highly doubt this was what gulliver had in mind, but here are some pools published in the DM. Most notable is the massive amount of grassroots support Theresa May still seems to have, as compared to BoJo and JRM.
On other issues, notably Leave v. Remain, or Deal v. No deal, or second referendum or no, the country is effectively still split.
https:/
On other issues, notably Leave v. Remain, or Deal v. No deal, or second referendum or no, the country is effectively still split.
https:/
//"I say again, 54% of the public."//
Sky poll with a sample of 1,500. (Research by whom?)
The DM poll had a sample size of 1,070. Research company Survation whom I've never heard of.
Any chance Jim can hunt down the detailed results of both polls? Did it with the C4(C5?) Trevor Phillips "Muslim attitude survey", Jim, didn't you?
Sky poll with a sample of 1,500. (Research by whom?)
The DM poll had a sample size of 1,070. Research company Survation whom I've never heard of.
Any chance Jim can hunt down the detailed results of both polls? Did it with the C4(C5?) Trevor Phillips "Muslim attitude survey", Jim, didn't you?
Leonid Bershidsky - Bloomberg
If the British parliament throws out the deal that Prime Minister Theresa May’s government has negotiated with the European Union, it will be most regretted in Brussels, because the deal in its existing form essentially insulates Europe from most of the Brexit fallout.
There’s a reason Donald Tusk, the European Council president, hurried on Thursday to call a meeting of EU leaders for Nov. 25 before there was any clarity on whether the deal will survive attacks from all sides in the U.K. As Tusk said, it’s always been the position of the EU that Brexit is a lose-lose proposition and any negotiations can only be about damage control. But the draft agreement isn’t at all bad for Europe.
The deal is built to make sure European companies, notably German carmakers, don’t lose an important market and don’t need to revamp their supply chains. According to the documents released on Thursday night, business gets a triple guarantee.
First, there’s the transition period until the end of 2020, which can be extended indefinitely and which essentially keeps the U.K. in the EU for all purposes except decision-making.
Second, there’s the backstop to avoid a hard border in Ireland, to which U.K.-EU relations revert if the transition period isn’t extended. It’s almost the same deal as the one Turkey has with the EU, imposing on the U.K. pretty much all the bloc’s goods trade rules plus some 25 pages of “level playing field” regulations that make sure Britain doesn’t try to out-compete its former partners by setting lower environmental, labor, state aid, antitrust and other standards.
Third, there’s the future economic relationship that’s supposed to “build on the single customs territory” between the EU and the U.K. No version of a customs union is dangerous to goods producers.
Brussels’ losses from the deal are limited. Unless the transition period is extended, it stands to lose some 13 billion euros ($14.7 billion) a year in U.K. contributions and save about 7 billion euros a year it’s been investing in the U.K. Other than that, it’s not so terrible. For example, fishing fleets from EU countries will have less opportunity to fish in U.K. waters (although they probably won’t be kept out entirely). Equal access to U.K. public procurement will be lost to EU firms, although that might be temporary. Europe also stands to lose some of the close law enforcement and security cooperation with the U.K., although new arrangements will almost certainly be made.
There are gains, too. More precarious access for U.K. finance firms to the EU will force them to build strong continental bases. The end of the free movement of people between the EU and U.K. can also benefit Europe. With less opportunity to emigrate, eastern European nations could get a respite from debilitating population outflows. Latvia would like to lose fewer people to the U.K., and so would Poland. Germany, with unemployment at historic lows and a shortage of qualified workers, could benefit if migrants go there instead.
But perhaps the best thing about the deal for the EU is that any member country can look at the Brexit documents and not find a single reason why it might be worth the trouble to quit the bloc. Europe’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has crafted an effective deterrent to copycats.
The problem, of course, with the documents being so good for Europe is that they’re so bad for the Brits. Guenter Verheugen, who served as a European Commissioner for more than a decade, wrote on Friday that playing to win every point in the Brexit negotiations wasn’t necessarily the best strategy. “Anyone who presses the British into an EU corset that is too tight today will lose any chance of their coming back voluntarily,” he wrote.
So tight is the corset that there’s an extremely high chance of May’s deal being shot down by U.K. lawmakers. Yet her deal would be nigh on impossible to renegotiate for any other British prime minister, given the EU’s position.
If the British parliament throws out the deal that Prime Minister Theresa May’s government has negotiated with the European Union, it will be most regretted in Brussels, because the deal in its existing form essentially insulates Europe from most of the Brexit fallout.
There’s a reason Donald Tusk, the European Council president, hurried on Thursday to call a meeting of EU leaders for Nov. 25 before there was any clarity on whether the deal will survive attacks from all sides in the U.K. As Tusk said, it’s always been the position of the EU that Brexit is a lose-lose proposition and any negotiations can only be about damage control. But the draft agreement isn’t at all bad for Europe.
The deal is built to make sure European companies, notably German carmakers, don’t lose an important market and don’t need to revamp their supply chains. According to the documents released on Thursday night, business gets a triple guarantee.
First, there’s the transition period until the end of 2020, which can be extended indefinitely and which essentially keeps the U.K. in the EU for all purposes except decision-making.
Second, there’s the backstop to avoid a hard border in Ireland, to which U.K.-EU relations revert if the transition period isn’t extended. It’s almost the same deal as the one Turkey has with the EU, imposing on the U.K. pretty much all the bloc’s goods trade rules plus some 25 pages of “level playing field” regulations that make sure Britain doesn’t try to out-compete its former partners by setting lower environmental, labor, state aid, antitrust and other standards.
Third, there’s the future economic relationship that’s supposed to “build on the single customs territory” between the EU and the U.K. No version of a customs union is dangerous to goods producers.
Brussels’ losses from the deal are limited. Unless the transition period is extended, it stands to lose some 13 billion euros ($14.7 billion) a year in U.K. contributions and save about 7 billion euros a year it’s been investing in the U.K. Other than that, it’s not so terrible. For example, fishing fleets from EU countries will have less opportunity to fish in U.K. waters (although they probably won’t be kept out entirely). Equal access to U.K. public procurement will be lost to EU firms, although that might be temporary. Europe also stands to lose some of the close law enforcement and security cooperation with the U.K., although new arrangements will almost certainly be made.
There are gains, too. More precarious access for U.K. finance firms to the EU will force them to build strong continental bases. The end of the free movement of people between the EU and U.K. can also benefit Europe. With less opportunity to emigrate, eastern European nations could get a respite from debilitating population outflows. Latvia would like to lose fewer people to the U.K., and so would Poland. Germany, with unemployment at historic lows and a shortage of qualified workers, could benefit if migrants go there instead.
But perhaps the best thing about the deal for the EU is that any member country can look at the Brexit documents and not find a single reason why it might be worth the trouble to quit the bloc. Europe’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has crafted an effective deterrent to copycats.
The problem, of course, with the documents being so good for Europe is that they’re so bad for the Brits. Guenter Verheugen, who served as a European Commissioner for more than a decade, wrote on Friday that playing to win every point in the Brexit negotiations wasn’t necessarily the best strategy. “Anyone who presses the British into an EU corset that is too tight today will lose any chance of their coming back voluntarily,” he wrote.
So tight is the corset that there’s an extremely high chance of May’s deal being shot down by U.K. lawmakers. Yet her deal would be nigh on impossible to renegotiate for any other British prime minister, given the EU’s position.
-- answer removed --
So here's the thing. I'm in Brussels. I just chaired a meeting with the EU; OECD; and a few corporates.
And then a few of us went out for a nice dinner.
No-one can quite believe how idiotic the Brits are for leaving.
An Irish NGO leader said that the only positive is that it brings the reunification of Ireland closer.
A Finnish EU official said she wants the UK back in the EU - the Brits were the only ones who injected some sanity into discussions.
There is no sense of punishment of the UK - only deep, deep regret (and disbelief) at the decision to go.
I don't really know if this is adding to the debate, but felt I should post it any way.
I have a big meeting tomorrow with global corporates and EU officials. Still trying to understand how anyone thought T May's task was in anyway possible, between the DUP, Hard Brexiters (who have no positive plan - only criticism) and remainers.
There was no viable solution. And this deal demonstrates the impossibility of squaring the Brexit circle.
The UK is left with three choices:
* A provisional deal that looks as if it was designed to *** off as many factions as possible.
* A hard no-deal Brexit that all the establishment, industry and the other EU members think is disastrous, with decades of austerity for the UK
* Remaining
For my part, I run a small company. We pay taxes. Our employees pay taxes. I have made the decision to move the company finances to Estonia, because of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and the lack of clarity on trade with our partners.
My decision makes no difference, but multiplied by thousands, or millions of small companies doing something similar means the UK loses billions in tax revenues and thousands of jobs; because this government refuses to give us any guidance on the future.
Because it can't. It has no idea what the future looks like
I don't want to take our business out of the UK, but if we are to continue in business, I have to. Inside the EU, I have certainty and predictability. In the UK, I have chaos.
Can I just swear at this government; at Cameron and at the Brexiter-politicians who have spread lies and disinformation for their own personal gain.
Their actions are destroying this country, which I love with a passion.
And then a few of us went out for a nice dinner.
No-one can quite believe how idiotic the Brits are for leaving.
An Irish NGO leader said that the only positive is that it brings the reunification of Ireland closer.
A Finnish EU official said she wants the UK back in the EU - the Brits were the only ones who injected some sanity into discussions.
There is no sense of punishment of the UK - only deep, deep regret (and disbelief) at the decision to go.
I don't really know if this is adding to the debate, but felt I should post it any way.
I have a big meeting tomorrow with global corporates and EU officials. Still trying to understand how anyone thought T May's task was in anyway possible, between the DUP, Hard Brexiters (who have no positive plan - only criticism) and remainers.
There was no viable solution. And this deal demonstrates the impossibility of squaring the Brexit circle.
The UK is left with three choices:
* A provisional deal that looks as if it was designed to *** off as many factions as possible.
* A hard no-deal Brexit that all the establishment, industry and the other EU members think is disastrous, with decades of austerity for the UK
* Remaining
For my part, I run a small company. We pay taxes. Our employees pay taxes. I have made the decision to move the company finances to Estonia, because of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and the lack of clarity on trade with our partners.
My decision makes no difference, but multiplied by thousands, or millions of small companies doing something similar means the UK loses billions in tax revenues and thousands of jobs; because this government refuses to give us any guidance on the future.
Because it can't. It has no idea what the future looks like
I don't want to take our business out of the UK, but if we are to continue in business, I have to. Inside the EU, I have certainty and predictability. In the UK, I have chaos.
Can I just swear at this government; at Cameron and at the Brexiter-politicians who have spread lies and disinformation for their own personal gain.
Their actions are destroying this country, which I love with a passion.
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