Film, Media & TV3 mins ago
The Newport West By-Election
https:/ /www.bb c.co.uk /news/u k-wales -politi cs-4778 6885
This was in the end the “expected” result, ie a Labour hold with a reduced majority on a reduced turnout.
Of note though was the large decrease in percentage of vote for the two main parties: UKIP, Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems, all increased their actual vote while Renew, standing for the first time, polled respectably.
Is there anything to be read into this?
I haven’t done any research to determine whether this sort of thing is normal in by-elections.
This was in the end the “expected” result, ie a Labour hold with a reduced majority on a reduced turnout.
Of note though was the large decrease in percentage of vote for the two main parties: UKIP, Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems, all increased their actual vote while Renew, standing for the first time, polled respectably.
Is there anything to be read into this?
I haven’t done any research to determine whether this sort of thing is normal in by-elections.
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For more on marking an answer as the "Best Answer", please visit our FAQ.The thing is though, as I said the result doesn’t appear irregular at all: the most interesting thing I can find is the support for smaller parties, but I can’t even be sure that’s abnormal. As for “migrating to the Brexit candidates” there was at least as much migration to non Brexit candidates as far as one can see: ie Renew and Lib Dems and that’s not including the extra Green and PC votes. If I was in Newport and wanted to cast a “Remain” protest vote I think I’d go with one of the first two. But even these votes don’t tell us much on such a small turnout.
Two things surprise me:
1. That 37% of the electorate bothered to vote at all (regardless of the weather).
2. That over 70% of them voted for candidates of the two parties who stood on a GE manifesto of taking the UK out of the EU when between them they seem to be conspiring to do all they can to prevent it. (Newport is estimated to have voted 54% to leave in the referendum).
It’s perhaps fortunate that voting is now a waste of time. I wonder how long it will before abstaining catches on.
1. That 37% of the electorate bothered to vote at all (regardless of the weather).
2. That over 70% of them voted for candidates of the two parties who stood on a GE manifesto of taking the UK out of the EU when between them they seem to be conspiring to do all they can to prevent it. (Newport is estimated to have voted 54% to leave in the referendum).
It’s perhaps fortunate that voting is now a waste of time. I wonder how long it will before abstaining catches on.
The Renew Party: started before TIG and would be an obvious ally
https:/ /en.m.w ikipedi a.org/w iki/Ren ew_Part y
https:/
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