Society & Culture4 mins ago
Ok From The Horses Mouth, No G E, So Can We Stop Going On About It
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Yes but you have to get to the "After Brexit" world in order for business as usual to be a thing. Even if you suppose that Brexit takes place on 31st October, then the fallout from it will shape politics for at least a decade before you can say we're in a normal, post-Brexit, politics again.
Besides, as jno says, Theresa May also promised no early election, consistently, right up until the minute she called one. I have no doubt that Johnson has no current intentions to call an early election, but what will those intentions be next week, or the week after?
Besides, as jno says, Theresa May also promised no early election, consistently, right up until the minute she called one. I have no doubt that Johnson has no current intentions to call an early election, but what will those intentions be next week, or the week after?
It's also worth saying that I can think of at least four plausible scenarios in which we *do* get an early election, whatever Johnson says today:
1. We don't leave on 31st October, Johnson resigns, VONC forces collapse in government. Early election inevitable.
2. We don't leave on 31st October. Johnson does *not* resign, but instead argues -- not unreasonably -- that he would have led us out on 31st October, but cannot do so with the current Parliament, and so attempts to trigger an election. Opposition parties can hardly say no. Early election inevitable.
3. We do leave on 31st October, in a No Deal scenario, and it turns out to be as bad as various economic scenarios have suggested. Chaos reigns, and even if it is only short-term, then it is enough to plunge the government into crisis and lead to an early election.
4. We do leave in 31st October, again without a Deal, but it turns out to be relatively calm after all. In his moment of triumph over the shame-faced "gloomsters", and with an inevitable stupidly strong poll bounce, do you really think Johnson isn't going to argue that he needs a stronger mandate to make the most of his success?
1. We don't leave on 31st October, Johnson resigns, VONC forces collapse in government. Early election inevitable.
2. We don't leave on 31st October. Johnson does *not* resign, but instead argues -- not unreasonably -- that he would have led us out on 31st October, but cannot do so with the current Parliament, and so attempts to trigger an election. Opposition parties can hardly say no. Early election inevitable.
3. We do leave on 31st October, in a No Deal scenario, and it turns out to be as bad as various economic scenarios have suggested. Chaos reigns, and even if it is only short-term, then it is enough to plunge the government into crisis and lead to an early election.
4. We do leave in 31st October, again without a Deal, but it turns out to be relatively calm after all. In his moment of triumph over the shame-faced "gloomsters", and with an inevitable stupidly strong poll bounce, do you really think Johnson isn't going to argue that he needs a stronger mandate to make the most of his success?
3 & 4 possible jim but neither would be immediate so pretty much at 2022 by the time either scenario has played out.
Labour clearly wont want an election, hence COB's reluctance. However the Lib Dems, whilst no chance of winning outright, could stand to gain so maybe they will push for a vote of no confidence?
Labour clearly wont want an election, hence COB's reluctance. However the Lib Dems, whilst no chance of winning outright, could stand to gain so maybe they will push for a vote of no confidence?
It depends on the scale of the fallout of a No Deal exit -- or the lack of it. If it's more or less immediate chaos then I find it hard to believe that won't lead to a VONC; if the immediate aftermath is relatively smooth then I don't think Johnson would want to wait two years with his majority of 1, and I think he'd want to cash in immediately.
But in any case, my own expectation is for scenarios 1 or 2, as I don't see a new deal being agreed in time and, as established, Parliament will not tolerate a No-Deal exit and will do what they can to block it.
At the very least, the answer to the question of whether or not there'll be an early GE will surely be shaped greatly by what happens on October 31st.
But in any case, my own expectation is for scenarios 1 or 2, as I don't see a new deal being agreed in time and, as established, Parliament will not tolerate a No-Deal exit and will do what they can to block it.
At the very least, the answer to the question of whether or not there'll be an early GE will surely be shaped greatly by what happens on October 31st.
Also, it's worth noting that Boris Johnson was only talking about a snap election before 31st October. And I'm sure he's right and indeed quite sensible to rule one out -- and I'm equally sure that if circumstances changed after 31/10 then he'd be well-justified in responding accordingly.
In comparison, the 2017 election was cynical on May's behalf: called on dubious pretences, conducted awfully, and punished accordingly. An election in early 2020, whether Johnson calls it or not, just seems to me to make sense in almost all circumstances.
In comparison, the 2017 election was cynical on May's behalf: called on dubious pretences, conducted awfully, and punished accordingly. An election in early 2020, whether Johnson calls it or not, just seems to me to make sense in almost all circumstances.
I really cannot dissagre with it making sense, but when does any politican do anything that makes sense!
as for 1 or 2 it's going to be interesting. Many MP's (of all colours) if sitting in a leave seat must surely realise that voting to stop Brexit would be like Turkeys voting for Christmas. Their seats, in many cases, would be targetted by the BP and very likely lost. They must know this so will they have the courage of their convictions and vote themselves out of a job.
Some interesting times ahead I think.
as for 1 or 2 it's going to be interesting. Many MP's (of all colours) if sitting in a leave seat must surely realise that voting to stop Brexit would be like Turkeys voting for Christmas. Their seats, in many cases, would be targetted by the BP and very likely lost. They must know this so will they have the courage of their convictions and vote themselves out of a job.
Some interesting times ahead I think.
I’m ot sure what is meant by “business as usual” after “Brexit”
If have thought it will be anything but business as usual. The issue of Brexit will not go away no matter what happens.
But even leaving that aside you’ll have a government - assuming it gets that far - effectively drawing up a new manifesto of policies : with no majority.
I would be astounded it it just “kept going”
If have thought it will be anything but business as usual. The issue of Brexit will not go away no matter what happens.
But even leaving that aside you’ll have a government - assuming it gets that far - effectively drawing up a new manifesto of policies : with no majority.
I would be astounded it it just “kept going”
Well what was all that guff in Manchester about it not preparation for an election.
I’ve said it before: Johnson is not stupid. If he can’t get her an agreement with Brussels and looks like parliament won’t allow a no deal, an ejection could be w good call. A PM trumpeting a Glorious Post Brexit Britain with No Deal on the agenda would likely take the wind out of Farage and co. Also, the current cabinet may be short on ability but they easily “trump” the Brexit party’s leading lights and as long as Corbyn is there ..
I’ve said it before: Johnson is not stupid. If he can’t get her an agreement with Brussels and looks like parliament won’t allow a no deal, an ejection could be w good call. A PM trumpeting a Glorious Post Brexit Britain with No Deal on the agenda would likely take the wind out of Farage and co. Also, the current cabinet may be short on ability but they easily “trump” the Brexit party’s leading lights and as long as Corbyn is there ..
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