Can The Brexit Party Win The Brecon And Radnorshire By-Election ?

[Gromit]

It is a Tory seat, but the electorate voted to dump the sitting MP and trigger a by-Election. Thenthe Tories kept the same candidate.

Pro-EU parties have decided not to stand, to help the LibDems win.

The area voted Leave in the Referendum.

The Conservatives majority will be cut to 1 if they lose.

Any predictions ?

[ToraToraTora]

it's obvious, brexit and tories will share the brexit vote letting in the Lib Nondems. You and the other EUphiles will claim it's a swing to remain.
Anyway what did the MP do to get recalled?

[douglas9401]

Goodness, what happened to that bulldog spirit, such defeatism.
Worthy of Vichy in its capitulation.

[ToraToraTora]

realism dear boy, you should try it.

[douglas9401]

Flexible BS you mean.

[ToraToraTora]

you'd know me old china.

[New Judge]

//Anyway what did the MP do to get recalled?//

He was convicted of two charges of making false expenses claims. He was sentenced to 50 hours of unpaid work and fined £1,500.

More than 10,000 of his constituents (almost twice the number required) petitioned for his recall. The Conservatives, in their infinite wisdom, allowed him to stand under their banner in the by-election thus kissing goodbye to any chance they might have had of retaining the seat.

[Old_Geezer]

Well the Undemocratic party is odds on, probably for the reasons T³ stated. But good luck the the Brexit party anyway.

[ichkeria]

The Brexit Party had little chance of winning this seat even before Johnson’s elevation to No 10.
Right now there’s not a lot of point to Farage’s party if you’re a Brexit supporter. On the other hand this had been a Lib Dem seat before and with a backlash in Wales, particularly rural Wales, against a no deal Brexit, the Tories stand to be heavily defeated here by Jane Dodds, who held a 15 percentage point lead over the Conservative candidate in a very recent poll.
To make matters worse for the Tories here, it’s the same candidate standing as before, despite the petition against him.

[ToraToraTora]

well if the Tory bad guy is standing again then the brexit party have a better chance.

[ichkeria]

They might pick up a few votes from the Tories but all that is going to do is increase the Lib Dem majority.
And there you see the reason why Johnson is Tory leadership: blind Farage-inspired panic. The Brexit Party handed Peterborough to Labour and although I think the Lib Dems would win here anyway, the BP are still not doing them any favours.

[youngmafbog]

TTT's first post pretty much sums it up.

[Old_Geezer]

Alternatively although one may think the Undems would win here anyway, the Tory party are still not doing the Brexit party any favours.

[ichkeria]

That poll I was on about had Lib Dems on 43, Tory and Brexit Party combined on 48.
Labour on 8. Assuming not all Brexit party votes are Tory votes (as we are always being reminded) then it doesn’t really point confidently to a Tory victory without a BP presence.
It’s true that the Greens and PC are not standing, to give the LD a clear run, but neither party has a significant presence in Brecon anyway.

[Peter Pedant]

is it polling day today
sorry I link Radnor with sheep and not political activism

[jim360]

Support for the Brexit Party is dropping like a stone in the polls, although to be fair I don't think this is anyone other than a "We believe in Boris" bounce, that could well fade come October. On the other hand, the Lib Dems are likely to do well because, incredibly, people actually want to vote for them. "Undemocratic" that is not.

[Peter Pedant]

you know Rador - where on a public holiday they drive the sheep thro the streets for public enjoyment....

AOGs post seems to have disappeared
that wasnt the one where he complained about all the brown skinned people in the town crawling about and someone said - no for chrissakes that was flock of brown fleeced swiss mountain sheep that get driven thro on public holidays !
an AOG said - I must go to spex savers

no it wasnt - - - OK

[naomi24]

The LibDems are undemocratic, therefore voting for them is, by extension, undemocratic.

[mushroom25]

//you know Rador - where on a public holiday they drive the sheep thro the streets for public enjoyment.... //

have you been baaaaaa-ed?

[Peter Pedant]

Boris Bounce - yeah the news had some wag had dragged a bedstead into the main square Radnor with a bale of straw wivva pair of trousers labelled "Boris's" stuffed on
and fliers wiv - "tax payers' money" printed on them
and it is said various farm animals are nuzzling up to the bale - sheep goat, few chickens....