Germany Will Plunge Into Recession If Uk Leaves The Eu Without A Deal.

[anotheoldgit]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7312717/Germany-plunge-recession-UK-leaves-EU-without-deal-business-leaders-warn.html

Well at least it will prove that they have just as much to loose as we do.

[anotheoldgit]

Ups!!!!! lose.

[ToraToraTora]

that's funny AOG, we are continually being told that only bad things can happen to the UK.

[andy-hughes]

Once again, this is speculation, and any and all speculation is tilted towards the speculator's view of future events.

No-one has any idea how post-Brexit economies will pan out - it's guess work, and should be ignored as such.

[ichkeria]

The same is predicted for the UK but of course we don’t wish to believe that :-)

[retrocop]

The EU and Germany now realise that Boris is running the show now and not their favourite pushover poodle. Time for Project fear over the other side of Le Manche. Who needs us now? If the EU hadn't started throwing their weight about and sat down to negotiate a fair withdrawal deal instead it probably would be a win win situation.

[ichkeria]

The problem the EU has is that it understandably cannot trust anything it does agree with the UK to be passed by Parliament.
Even if the backstop plan was withdrawn the suspicion is some other objection would be raised.
And that is yet another reason why that part of the agreement is not for negotiation.

A German economy in recession would make our recession even worse.

[andy-hughes]

ich - // The same is predicted for the UK but of course we don’t wish to believe that :-) //

I don't think it's a matter of what we 'wish' to believe, rather more what we can, and this in case, can't believe - because as I said, speculation is just a posh word for guessing, and no-one is going to spend time thinking about that.

[Gromit]

// 200,000 job losses in the UK and Germany, which could move the country into a recession in the fourth quarter of this year. //

The report is about Germany, but it is saying a no deal Brexit will be very bad for BOTH countries.

We will share 200,000 job losses and all you can do is gloat gleefully, as if it is a good thing.

[cassa333]

If it’s going to be very bad for both countries then they should get a move on and sort out a proper deal that either mitigates that or will eliminate the bad.

That seems eminently obvious.

[dannyk13]

Gromit, it is all speculation as A H says, guesswork.

[ichkeria]

What we “wish” to believe is exactly right. All the negative stuff about the UK is dismissed as scaremongering but a German sneeze or worse is predicted and it’s jumped on - gleefully it would seem.

[ToraToraTora]

gromit, correct, which is why we'll do a deal on the 1st of Nov. In order for the EUSSR to see sense we must first leave with no deal. Then we can do a deal.

[Old_Geezer]

Guesswork or reasonable assumptions ?

Nations that lose trade tend to veer towards recession, therefore when Brexit no-deal occurs all who trade with the UK are likely to experience a downturn and recession.

[Zacs-Master]

And therefore, vice versa, OG?

[Old_Geezer]

One needs to accept that EU intransigence resulting in a likely no-deal will hit all. But for the UK it is the temporary cost of regaining control and being able to make trade deals globally. Lord only knows what's in it for the remaining EU nations.

[Zacs-Master]

Downturns and recessions are temporary.

[Old_Geezer]

Exactly. We can ignore "project fear" stories and just get on with the dip & upturn.

[Zacs-Master]

Jolly good.

[andy-hughes]

Old_Geezer - // One needs to accept that EU intransigence resulting in a likely no-deal will hit all. //

And that is precisely why the EU will not let it happen!

The EU know full well that if they wait long enough, the UK will capitulate on absolutely every single last request (never a demand!) that they wanted.

That is, until Boris appeared, and sent a shot across their bows advising that he is absolutely prepared to march the UK out without a deal.

Suddenly the battle plans are re-drawn. the EU can no longer sit across the table with its arms folded and a smug expression, it actually has to sit down and really negotiate with someone who appears to know what the word 'negotiate' actually means.

This hasn't happened before, which is the farce the previous negotiators faffed us into - but it's happening now, and the EU needs to get a shift on and get a deal sorted, and watch this space - they will.

[jim360]

Recessions are pretty miserable while they last, though -- and are usually worst for people who were already poor.

I still am confused at the illogic behind "no deal to get a deal". What better way to persuade the EU to see how reasonable we're being by deliberately pursuing a mutually destructive policy. As to the idea that "only bad things happen to the EU" -- nobody, ever, has argued that the EU would be fine in a No Deal scenario. On the other hand, there are good reasons to expect that the damage will be proportionally worse for the UK -- and in any case, it's generally the rule that if your house burns down and takes your neighbour's with you in the process, then you care rather more about the former.