//it's also worth pointing out that even if the government loses a VONC, and even if the 14 days expires. The PM, a) does not have to resign and b) gets to choose the date of the GE, some time after 31st Oct methinks, mission accomplished we are out anyway.//
Not so fast, sir! Not so fast!
Following a vote of No Confidence the FTPA provides 14 days for the HOC to pass a motion of "Confidence" in any new government that may be formed in that period. So, if a new government is formed in that 14 days that secures the confidence of the House an immediate GE will not be required. If that happens all bets are off and the likely thwarting of Brexit, which I have been forecasting for about three months, will again ensue.
It seems clear that a NC vote will succeed. There are Tory Remainers who would rather see their own government fall than succumb to a proper Brexit. The issue then is whether another government could be formed in a fortnight. I suspect that it will, such is the contempt that Remainer MPs hold for the electorate.